Refining area of occupancy to address the modifiable areal unit problem in ecology and conservation

The ‘modifiable areal unit problem’ is prevalent across many aspects of spatial analysis within ecology and conservation. The problem is particularly manifest when calculating metrics for extinction risk estimation, for example, area of occupancy (AOO).Although embedded into the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria, AOO is often not used or is poorly applied. Here we evaluate new and existing methods for calculating AOO from occurrence records and present a method for determining the minimum AOO using a uniform grid. We evaluate the grid cell shape, grid origin and grid rotation with both real-world and simulated data, reviewing the effects on AOO values, and possible impacts for species already assessed on the IUCN Red List. We show that AOO can vary by up to 80% and a ratio of cells to points of 1:1.21 gives the maximum variation in the number of occupied cells. These findings potentially impact 3% of existing species on the IUCN Red List, as well as species not yet assessed. We show that a new method that combines both grid rotation and moving grid origin gives fast, robust and reproducible results and, in the majority of cases, achieves the minimum AOO. As well as reporting minimum AOO, we outline a confidence interval which should be incorporated in to existing tools that support species risk assessment. We also make further recommendations for reporting AOO and other areal measurements within ecology, leading to more robust methods for future species risk assessment

Least concern to endangered: applying climate change projections profoundly influences the extinction risk assessment for wild Arabica coffee

Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is a key crop in many tropical countries and globally provides an export value of over US$13 billion per year. Wild Arabica coffee is of fundamental importance for the global coffee sector and of direct importance within Ethiopia, as a source of harvestable income and planting stock. Published studies show that climate change is projected to have a substantial negative influence on the current suitable growing areas for indigenous Arabica in Ethiopia and South Sudan. Here we use all available future projections for the species based on multiple general circulation models (GCMs), emission scenarios and migration scenarios, to predict changes in Extent of Occurrence (EOO), Area of Occupancy (AOO) and population numbers for wild Arabica coffee. Under climate change alone, our results show that population numbers could reduce by 50% or more (with a few models showing over 80%) by 2088. EOO and AOO are projected to decline by around 30% in many cases. Furthermore, present-day models compared to the near future (2038), show a reduction for EOO of over 40% (with a few cases over 50%), although EOO should be treated with caution due to its sensitivity to outlying occurrences. When applying these metrics to extinction risk, we show that the determination of generation length is critical. When applying the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red list of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) criteria, even with a very conservative generation length of 21 years, wild Arabica coffee is assessed as Threatened with extinction (placed in the Endangered category) under a broad range of climate change projections, if no interventions are made. Importantly, if we do not include climate change in our assessment, Arabica coffee is assessed as Least Concern (Non-threatened) when applying the IUCN Red List criteri

Measuring Global Trends in the Status of Biodiversity: Red List Indices for Birds

The rapid destruction of the planet's biodiversity has prompted the nations of the world to set a target of achieving a significant reduction in the rate of loss of biodiversity by 2010. However, we do not yet have an adequate way of monitoring progress towards achieving this target. Here we present a method for producing indices based on the IUCN Red List to chart the overall threat status (projected relative extinction risk) of all the world's bird species from 1988 to 2004. Red List Indices (RLIs) are based on the number of species in each Red List category, and on the number changing categories between assessments as a result of genuine improvement or deterioration in status. The RLI for all bird species shows that their overall threat status has continued to deteriorate since 1988. Disaggregated indices show that deteriorations have occurred worldwide and in all major ecosystems, but with particularly steep declines in the indices for Indo-Malayan birds (driven by intensifying deforestation of the Sundaic lowlands) and for albatrosses and petrels (driven by incidental mortality in commercial longline fisheries). RLIs complement indicators based on species population trends and habitat extent for quantifying global trends in the status of biodiversity. Their main weaknesses are that the resolution of status changes is fairly coarse and that delays may occur before some status changes are detected. Their greatest strength is that they are based on information from nearly all species in a taxonomic group worldwide, rather than a potentially biased subset. At present, suitable data are only available for birds, but indices for other taxonomic groups are in development, as is a sampled index based on a stratified sample from all major taxonomic groups

Global distribution and drivers of language extinction risk

Many of the world's languages face serious risk of extinction. Efforts to prevent this cultural loss are severely constrained by a poor understanding of the geographical patterns and drivers of extinction risk. We quantify the global distribution of language extinction risk—represented by small range and speaker population sizes and rapid declines in the number of speakers—and identify the underlying environmental and socioeconomic drivers. We show that both small range and speaker population sizes are associated with rapid declines in speaker numbers, causing 25% of existing languages to be threatened based on criteria used for species. Language range and population sizes are small in tropical and arctic regions, particularly in areas with high rainfall, high topographic heterogeneity and/or rapidly growing human populations. By contrast, recent speaker declines have mainly occurred at high latitudes and are strongly linked to high economic growth. Threatened languages are numerous in the tropics, the Himalayas and northwestern North America. These results indicate that small-population languages remaining in economically developed regions are seriously threatened by continued speaker declines. However, risks of future language losses are especially high in the tropics and in the Himalayas, as these regions harbour many small-population languages and are undergoing rapid economic growth

The conservation status and population decline of the African penguin deconstructed in space and time

Understanding changes in abundance is crucial for conservation, but population growth rates often vary over space and time. We use 40 years of count data (1979–2019) and Bayesian state-space models to assess the African penguin Spheniscus demersus population under IUCN Red List Criterion A. We deconstruct the overall decline in time and space to identify where urgent conservation action is needed. The global African penguin population met the threshold for Endangered with a high probability (97%), having declined by almost 65% since 1989. An historical low of ~17,700 pairs bred in 2019. Annual changes were faster in the South African population (−4.2%, highest posterior density interval, HPDI: −7.8 to −0.6%) than the Namibian one (−0.3%, HPDI: −3.3 to +2.6%), and since 1999 were almost −10% at South African colonies north of Cape Town. Over the 40-year period, the Eastern Cape colonies went from holding ~25% of the total penguin population to ~40% as numbers decreased more rapidly elsewhere. These changes coincided with an altered abundance and availability of the main prey of African penguins. Our results underline the dynamic nature of population declines in space as well as time and highlight which penguin colonies require urgent conservation attention

Surviving in Europe : geopolitics of biodiversity conservation illustrated by a proxy species Viola uliginosa

Building strategies for continental-scale conservation is challenging due to evolutionary and geopolitical problems. How do policy choices arise from this setting? In this study, we integrate ecological research with policy analysis to examine the problem field with a case study research. We use a violet species endemic to Europe, Viola uliginosa, as a proxy for a significant European Union (EU)-Russian biodiversity pattern and its conservation. The violet's core populations locate in Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia, and all populations in the EU are peripheral. The species is endangered in 12 EU member states and in decline in many places elsewhere. To analyze the choices of conservation, we gathered data on its ecology, distribution, and conservation mechanisms across Europe, putting additional emphasis on the EU enlargement and long-term site histories in Finland. We found that the survival of the species in the EU depends on the enlargement negotiations, conflicts between the EU biodiversity and agricultural policies, selection of the species to national Red Lists and the Habitats Directive, and contingent site histories depending on the conservation activities by civic actors and the member states. While the evolutionary aspect emphasizes the genetic differentiation potential of peripheral populations, the geopolitical aspect characterizes the EU as simultaneous spaces of a monotopia, borderlands, and polycentric development. We conclude that intersections between these geopolitical spaces can be used with evolutionary perspectives to identify local, European, and network-driven policy choices of conservation.Peer reviewe

A new limestone-dwelling species of Micryletta (Amphibia: Anura: Microhylidae) from northern Vietnam

We report on a new species of the genus Micryletta from limestone karst areas in northern Vietnam, which is described on the basis of molecular and morphological evidence. Micryletta nigromaculata sp. nov. is restricted to narrow areas of subtropical forests covering karst massifs in Cat Ba National Park (Hai Phong Province) and Cuc Phuong National Park (Ninh Binh Province) at elevations of 90–150 m a.s.l. In the phylogenetic analyses, the new species is unambiguously positioned as a sister lineage to all remaining species of Micryletta. We also discuss genealogical relationships and taxonomic problems within the genus Micryletta, provide molecular evidence for the validity of M. erythropoda and discuss the taxonomic status of M. steinegeri. We suggest the new species should be considered as Endangered (B1ab(iii), EN) following the IUCN’s Red List categories. A discussion on herpetofaunal diversity and conservation in threatened limestone karst massifs in Southeast Asia is provided