On the impact of transport model errors for the estimation of CO2 surface fluxes from GOSAT observations

A series of observing system simulation experiments is presented in which column averaged dry air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) are made consistent or not with the transport model embedded in a flux inversion system. The GOSAT observations improve the random errors of the surface carbon budget despite the inconsistency. However, we find biases in the inferred surface CO2 budget of a few hundred MtC/a at the subcontinental scale, that are caused by differences of only a few tenths of a ppm between the simulations of the individual XCO2 soundings. The accuracy and precision of the inverted fluxes are little sensitive to an 8-fold reduction in the data density. This issue is critical for any future satellite constellation to monitor XCO2 and should be pragmatically addressed by explicitly accounting for transport errors in flux inversion systems

What's in a voice? Prosody as a test case for the Theory of Mind account of autism

The human voice conveys a variety of information about people's feelings, emotions and mental states. Some of this information relies on sophisticated Theory of Mind (ToM) skills, whilst others are simpler and do not require ToM. This variety provides an interesting test case for the ToM account of autism, which would predict greater impairment as ToM requirements increase. In this paper, we draw on psychological and pragmatic theories to classify vocal cues according to the amount of mindreading required to identify them. Children with a high functioning Autism Spectrum Disorder and matched controls were tested in three experiments where the speakers' state had to be extracted from their vocalizations. Although our results confirm that people with autism have subtle difficulties dealing with vocal cues, they show a pattern of performance that is inconsistent with the view that atypical recognition of vocal cues is caused by impaired ToM

Light emission from silicon with tin-containing nanocrystals

Tin-containing nanocrystals, embedded in silicon, have been fabricated by growing an epitaxial layer of Si_{1-x-y}Sn_{x}C_{y}, where x = 1.6 % and y = 0.04 %, followed by annealing at various temperatures ranging from 650 to 900 degrees C. The nanocrystal density and average diameters are determined by scanning transmission-electron microscopy to ~ 10^{17} cm^{-3} and ~ 5 nm, respectively. Photoluminescence spectroscopy demonstrates that the light emission is very pronounced for samples annealed at 725 degrees C, and Rutherford back-scattering spectrometry shows that the nanocrystals are predominantly in the diamond-structured phase at this particular annealing temperature. The origin of the light emission is discussed.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, submitted to AIP Advance

A Number-Theoretic Error-Correcting Code

In this paper we describe a new error-correcting code (ECC) inspired by the Naccache-Stern cryptosystem. While by far less efficient than Turbo codes, the proposed ECC happens to be more efficient than some established ECCs for certain sets of parameters. The new ECC adds an appendix to the message. The appendix is the modular product of small primes representing the message bits. The receiver recomputes the product and detects transmission errors using modular division and lattice reduction

The importance of transport model uncertainties for the estimation of CO2 sources and sinks using satellite measurements

This study presents a synthetic model intercomparison to investigate the importance of transport model errors for estimating the sources and sinks of CO2 using satellite measurements. The experiments were designed for testing the potential performance of the proposed CO2 lidar A-SCOPE, but also apply to other space borne missions that monitor total column CO2. The participating transport models IFS, LMDZ, TM3, and TM5 were run in forward and inverse mode using common a priori CO2 fluxes and initial concentrations. Forward simulations of column averaged CO2 (xCO2) mixing ratios vary between the models by s=0.5 ppm over the continents and s=0.27 ppm over the oceans. Despite the fact that the models agree on average on the sub-ppm level, these modest differences nevertheless lead to significant discrepancies in the inverted fluxes of 0.1 PgC/yr per 106 km2 over land and 0.03 PgC/yr per 106 km2 over the ocean. These transport model induced flux uncertainties exceed the target requirement that was formulated for the A-SCOPE mission of 0.02 PgC/yr per 106 km2, and could also limit the overall performance of other CO2 missions such as GOSAT. A variable, but overall encouraging agreement is found in comparison with FTS measurements at Park Falls, Darwin, Spitsbergen, and Bremen, although systematic differences are found exceeding the 0.5 ppm level. Because of this, our estimate of the impact of transport model uncerainty is likely to be conservative. It is concluded that to make use of the remote sensing technique for quantifying the sources and sinks of CO2 not only requires highly accurate satellite instruments, but also puts stringent requirements on the performance of atmospheric transport models. Improving the accuracy of these models should receive high priority, which calls for a closer collaboration between experts in atmospheric dynamics and tracer transpor

Fibronectin-Cleaving Activity in Bronchial Secretions of Patients with Cystic Fibrosis

In cystic fibrosis, colonization of the airways with Pseudomonas aeruginosa follows colonization with Staphylococcus aureus and is related to accelerated deterioration of pulmonary function. Because P. aeruginosa adheres better to cell surfaces devoid of fibronectin, we searched for fibronectin-cleaving activity in bronchial secretions and saliva from 24 patients with cystic fibrosis who were followed up for 4.5 y and from two control groups. Proteolytic activity against 125I-labeled fibronectin wascontinuously present in cystic fibrosis bronchial secretions; significantly higher fibronectin-cleaving activity was found in older vs. younger patients, in patients with advanced disease stages determined by a five-stage scoring system, and in those colonized with P. aeruginosa. The fibronectin-cleaving activity was due to neutrophil elastase and cathepsin G. Cystic fibrosis bronchial secretions had proteolytic activity against surface fibronectin of airway mucosal cells. Thus fibronectin-cleaving activity of bronchial secretions rather than of saliva may favor P. aeruginosa colonization of the upper respiratory tract in individuals with cystic fibrosi

Josephson effect through an anisotropic magnetic molecule

We study the Josephson effect through a magnetic molecule with anisotropic properties. Performing calculations in the tunneling regime, we show that the exchange coupling between the electron spin on the molecule and the molecular spin can trigger a transition from the $\pi$ state to the 0 state, and we study how the spin anisotropy affects this transition. We show that the behavior of the critical current as a function of an external magnetic field can give access to valuable information about the spin anisotropy of the molecule

Forecasting the European carbon market

In an effort to meet its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol, in 2005 the European Union introduced a cap-and-trade scheme where mandated installations are allocated permits to emit CO2. Financial markets have developed that allow companies to trade these carbon permits. For the EU to achieve reductions in CO2 emissions at a minimum cost, it is necessary that companies make appropriate investments and policymakers design optimal policies. In an effort to clarify the workings of the carbon market, several recent papers have attempted to statistically model it. However, the European carbon market (EU ETS) has many institutional features that potentially impact on daily carbon prices (and associated …nancial futures). As a consequence, the carbon market has properties that are quite di¤erent from conventional financial assets traded in mature markets. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging (DMA) in order to forecast in this newly-developing market. DMA is a recently-developed statistical method which has three advantages over conventional approaches. First, it allows the coefficients on the predictors in a forecasting model to change over time. Second, it allows for the entire forecasting model to change over time. Third, it surmounts statistical problems which arise from the large number of potential predictors that can explain carbon prices. Our empirical results indicate that there are both important policy and statistical benefits with our approach. Statistically, we present strong evidence that there is substantial turbulence and change in the EU ETS market, and that DMA can model these features and forecast accurately compared to conventional approaches. From a policy perspective, we discuss the relative and changing role of different price drivers in the EU ETS. Finally, we document the forecast performance of DMA and discuss how this relates to the efficiency and maturity of this market