15 Years of New Growth Economics: What Have We Learnt?

Paul Romer’s paper Increasing Returns and Long Run Growth, now 15 years old, led to resurgence in the research on economic growth. Since then, growth literature has expanded dramatically and has shifted the research focus of many generations of macroeconomists. The new line of work has emphasized the role of human capital, social and political variables, as well as the importance of institutions as driving forces of long-run economic growth. This paper presents an insight into the theoretical and empirical literature of the past fifteen years, highlighting the most significant contributions for our understanding of economics.

15 years of new growth economics: What have we learnt?

This paper evaluates the empirical and theoretical contributions of the Economic Growth Literature since the publication of Paul Romer’s seminal paper in 1986.Economic gowth, technological progress, empirics of growth

I just ran four million regressions

In this paper I try to move away from the Extreme Bounds method of identifying ``robust'' empirical relations in the economic growth literature. Instead of analyzing the extreme bounds of the estimates of the coefficient of a particular variable, I analyze the entire distribution. My claim in this paper is that, if we do this, the picture emerging from the empirical growth literature is not the pessimistic ``Nothing is Robust'' that we get with the extreme bound analysis. Instead, we find that a substantial number of variables can be found to be strongly related to growth.Economic growth, growth regressions, empirical determinants of economic growth

Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria

Some natural resources -- oil and minerals in particular -- exert a negative and nonlinear impact on growth via their deleterious impact on institutional quality. We show this result to be very robust. The Nigerian experience provides telling confirmation of this aspect of natural resources. Waste and corruption from oil rather than Dutch disease has been responsible for its poor long run economic performance. We propose a solution for addressing this resource curse which involves directly distributing the oil revenues to the public. Even with all the difficulties of corruption and inefficiency that will no doubt plague its actual implementation, our proposal will, at the least, be vastly superior to the status quo. At best, however, it could fundamentally improve the quality of public institutions and, as a result, transform economics and politics in Nigeria.

Fiscal Federalism and Optimum Currency Areas: Evidence for Europe From the United States

The main goal of this paper is to estimate to what extent the federal government of the United States insures member states against regional income shocks. We find that a one dollar reduction in a region's per capita personal income triggers a decrease in federal taxes of about 34 cents and an increase in federal transfers of about 6 cents. Hence, the final reduction in disposable per capita income is on the order of 60 cents. That is, between one third and one half of the initial shock is absorbed by the federal government. The much larger reaction of taxes than transfers to these regional imbalances reflects the fact that the main mechanism at work is the federal income tax system which in turn means that the stabilization process is automatic rather than specifically designed each time there is a cyclical movement in income. Some economists may want to argue that this regional insurance scheme provided by the federal government is an important reason why the system of fixed exchange rates that exists within the United States today has survived without major problems. Under this view, the creation of a European Central Bank that issues unified European currency without the simultaneous introduction (or expansion) of a fiscal federalist system could put the project at risk. Rough calculations of the impact of the existing European tax system on regional income suggests that a one dollar shock to regional GDP will reduce tax payments to the EEC government by half a cent!. Hence, the current European tax system has a long way to go before it reaches the 34 cents of the U.S. Federal Government.

Financial Repression and Economic Growth

We survey the literatures that study the relation between the trade regime and growth and financial development, financial repression, and growth. We analyze the relation between the trade regime, the degree of financial development and the growth performance of a large cross section of countries. The systematic finding is that there is a negative relation between trade distortions and growth. We also present some variables that capture the degree to which the financial sector is distorted. We find that financial repression has negative consequences for growth. We also find that inflation- is negatively related to growth. We interpret this relation, however, as symptomatic rather than causal. We show that once we hold constant measures of the trade regime and financial repression, the regional dummies for Latin America are no longer significant. Thus, the poor performance of the Latin American countries over the last few decades is related to the trade and financial policies pursued by their governments.

Social security in theory and practice (I): Facts and political theories

166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forces create and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? We document some of the internationally and historically common features of Social Security programs including explicit and implicit taxes on labor supply, pay-as-you-go features, intergenerational redistribution, benefits which are increasing functions of lifetime earnings and not means-tested. We partition theories of Social Security into three groups: "political", "efficiency" and "narrative" theories. We explore three political theories in this paper: the majority rational voting model (with its two versions: "the elderly as the leaders of a winning coalition with the poor" and the "once and for all election" model), the "time-intensive model of political competition" and the "taxpayer protection model". Each of the explanations is compared with the international and historical facts. A companion paper explores the "efficiency" and "narrative" theories, and derives implications of all the theories for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan.Social Security, retirement, gerontocracy, retirement incentives, political theories of Social Security

Social Security in Theory and Practice (II): Efficiency Theories, Narrative Theories, and Implications for Reform

166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forces create and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (1999) document several of the internationally and historically common features of social security programs, and explore political' theories of Social Security. This paper discusses the efficiency theories,' which view creation of the SS program as a full or partial solution to some market failure. Efficiency explanations of social security include the SS as welfare for the elderly', the retirement increases productivity to optimally manage human capital externalities', optimal retirement insurance', the prodigal father problem', the misguided Keynesian', the optimal longevity insurance', the government economizing transaction costs' and the return on human capital investment'. We also analyze four narrative' theories of social security: the chain letter theory', the lump of labor theory', the monopoly capitalism theory', and the Sub-but-Nearly-Optimal policy response to private pensions theory'. The political and efficiency explanations are compared with the international and historical facts and used to derive implications for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan. Most of the explanations suggest that forced savings does not increase welfare, and may decrease it.

A Note on the Time-Elimination Method For Solving Recursive Dynamic Economic Models

The Time-Elimination Method for solving recursive dynamic economic models is described. By defining control-like and state-like variables, one can transform the equations of motion describing the economy's evolution through time into a system of differential equations that are independent of time. Unlike the transversality conditions, the boundary conditions for the system in the state-like variable are not asymptotic boundary conditions. In theory, this reformulation of the problem greatly facilitates numerical analysis. In practice, problems which were impossible to solve with a popular algorithm - shooting - can be solved in short order. The reader of this paper need not have any knowledge of numerical mathematics or dynamic programming or be able to draw high dimensional phase diagrams. only a familiarity with the first order conditions of the 'Hamiltonian' method for solving dynamic optimization problems is required. The most natural application of Time-Elimination is to growth models. The method is applied here to three growth models.: the Ramsey/Cass/Koopmans one sector model, Jones & Manuelli's(1990) variant of the Ramsey model, and a two sector growth model in the spirit of Lucas (1988). A very simple - but complete - computer program for numerically solving the Ramsey model is provided.

World Real Interest Rates

We think of the expected real interest rate for ten OECD countries (our counterpart of the world economy) as determined by the equation of aggregate investment demand to aggregate desired saving. Stock-market returns isolate shifts to investment demand, and changes in oil prices, monetary growth, and fiscal variables isolate shifts to desired saving. We estimated the reduced form for CDP-weighted world averages of the expected short-term real interest rate and the investment ratio over the period 1959-88. The estimates reveal significant effects in the predicted direction for world stock returns, oil prices, and world monetary growth, but fiscal variables turned out to be unimportant. Structural estimation implies that an increase by one percentage point in the expected real interest rate raises the desired saving rate by onethird of a percentage point. Simulations of the model indicated that fluctuations in world stock returns and oil prices explain a good deal of the time series for the world average of expected real interest rates; specifically, why the rates were low in 1974-79 and high in 1981-86. The model also explains the fall in real rates in 1987-88 and the subsequent upturn in 1989. The fitted relation forecasts an increase in the world average of real interest rates in 1990 to a value, 5.6 %, that is nearly a full percentage point above the highest value attained in the entire prior sample, 1958-89. We estimated systems of equations for individual countries' expected real interest rates and investment ratios. One finding is that each country's expected real interest rate depends primarily on world factors, rather than own-country factors, thereby suggesting a good deal of integration of world capital and goods markets.