Ocean convergence and the dispersion of flotsam

Floating oil, plastics, and marine organisms are continually redistributed by ocean surface currents. Prediction of their resulting distribution on the surface is a fundamental, long-standing, and practically important problem. The dominant paradigm is dispersion within the dynamical context of a nondivergent flow: objects initially close together will on average spread apart but the area of surface patches of material does not change. Although this paradigm is likely valid at mesoscales, larger than 100 km in horizontal scale, recent theoretical studies of submesoscales (less than ∼10 km) predict strong surface convergences and downwelling associated with horizontal density fronts and cyclonic vortices. Here we show that such structures can dramatically concentrate floating material. More than half of an array of ∼200 surface drifters covering ∼20 × 20 km2 converged into a 60 × 60 m region within a week, a factor of more than 105 decrease in area, before slowly dispersing. As predicted, the convergence occurred at density fronts and with cyclonic vorticity. A zipperlike structure may play an important role. Cyclonic vorticity and vertical velocity reached 0.001 s−1 and 0.01 ms−1, respectively, which is much larger than usually inferred. This suggests a paradigm in which nearby objects form submesoscale clusters, and these clusters then spread apart. Together, these effects set both the overall extent and the finescale texture of a patch of floating material. Material concentrated at submesoscale convergences can create unique communities of organisms, amplify impacts of toxic material, and create opportunities to more efficiently recover such material

Ocean convergence and the dispersion of flotsam

Floating oil, plastics, and marine organisms are continually redistributed by ocean surface currents. Prediction of their resulting distribution on the surface is a fundamental, long-standing, and practically important problem. The dominant paradigm is dispersion within the dynamical context of a nondivergent flow: objects initially close together will on average spread apart but the area of surface patches of material does not change. Although this paradigm is likely valid at mesoscales, larger than 100 km in horizontal scale, recent theoretical studies of submesoscales (less than ∼10 km) predict strong surface convergences and downwelling associated with horizontal density fronts and cyclonic vortices. Here we show that such structures can dramatically concentrate floating material. More than half of an array of ∼200 surface drifters covering ∼20 × 20 km2 converged into a 60 × 60 m region within a week, a factor of more than 105 decrease in area, before slowly dispersing. As predicted, the convergence occurred at density fronts and with cyclonic vorticity. A zipperlike structure may play an important role. Cyclonic vorticity and vertical velocity reached 0.001 s−1 and 0.01 ms−1, respectively, which is much larger than usually inferred. This suggests a paradigm in which nearby objects form submesoscale clusters, and these clusters then spread apart. Together, these effects set both the overall extent and the finescale texture of a patch of floating material. Material concentrated at submesoscale convergences can create unique communities of organisms, amplify impacts of toxic material, and create opportunities to more efficiently recover such material

The bii4africa dataset of faunal and floral population intactness estimates across Africa’s major land uses

Sub-Saharan Africa is under-represented in global biodiversity datasets, particularly regarding the impact of land use on species’ population abundances. Drawing on recent advances in expert elicitation to ensure data consistency, 200 experts were convened using a modified-Delphi process to estimate ‘intactness scores’: the remaining proportion of an ‘intact’ reference population of a species group in a particular land use, on a scale from 0 (no remaining individuals) to 1 (same abundance as the reference) and, in rare cases, to 2 (populations that thrive in human-modified landscapes). The resulting bii4africa dataset contains intactness scores representing terrestrial vertebrates (tetrapods: ±5,400 amphibians, reptiles, birds, mammals) and vascular plants (±45,000 forbs, graminoids, trees, shrubs) in sub-Saharan Africa across the region’s major land uses (urban, cropland, rangeland, plantation, protected, etc.) and intensities (e.g., large-scale vs smallholder cropland). This dataset was co-produced as part of the Biodiversity Intactness Index for Africa Project. Additional uses include assessing ecosystem condition; rectifying geographic/ taxonomic biases in global biodiversity indicators and maps; and informing the Red List of Ecosystems

Biases in Structure Functions from Observations of Submesoscale Flows

Surface drifter observations from the LAgrangian Submesoscale ExpeRiment (LASER) campaign in the Gulf of Mexico are paired with Eulerian (ship‐borne X‐band radar) data to demonstrate that velocity structure functions from drifters differ systematically from Eulerian structure functions over scales from 0.4 to 7 km. These differences result from drifters oversampling surface convergences and regions of intense vorticity. The first‐, second‐, and third‐order structure functions are calculated using quasi‐Lagrangian (drifter) and Eulerian data from approximately the same location and time. Differences between quasi‐Lagrangian and Eulerian structure functions are attributed to two forms of bias. The first bias results from the mean divergence or vorticity of the background flow creating nonzero first‐order structure functions. This background bias affects both quasi‐Lagrangian and Eulerian data when insufficiently time‐averaged. It severely biases the drifter third‐order structure functions but is smaller in Eulerian structure functions at both second and third order. This bias can be corrected for using lower‐order structure functions. The second form of bias results from drifters accumulating in regions with flow statistics that differ from undersampled regions. This accumulation bias is diagnosed by identifying the dependence of the Eulerian structure functions on divergence and vorticity as well as scale. Together, both biases suggest that caution is needed when interpreting second‐order drifter statistics and that linking raw third‐order drifter statistics to energy fluxes is often erroneous in ocean data: Even with background correction and sufficient time‐averaging, drifters overestimate the Eulerian estimate of the third‐order structure function by up to a factor of 5 when signs are consistent. Plain Language Summary Structure functions are a statistic used to measure the spreading of material floating in the ocean, such as plastics or spilled oil, as well as the transfer of properties like energy across scales. Their calculation requires knowledge of velocities of nearby particles. These can be measured either by (nearly) stationary instruments, such as a radar, or by tracking drifters. Offshore drifter tracking is generally easier, but they are known to be attracted to specific flow features, such as fronts, windrows, and vortices, leading to less sampling of other areas. By considering a unique data set of nearly simultaneous velocity measurements from both radar and drifters, this paper investigates how the uneven sampling by drifters, as well as the limited area coverage of radar measurements, impacts the structure function statistics and their interpretation. Key Points Structure functions calculated from observed drifters are subject to accumulation bias when compared to those from Eulerian observations Structure functions calculated from either drifters or Eulerian data may be subject to a background bias due to mean gradients in the flow These biases preclude inferences about energy cascades or fluxes from structure functions from drifters or localized Eulerian dat

Research Overview of the Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE)

CARTHE (http://carthe.org/) is a Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI) consortium established through a competitive peer-reviewed selection process. CARTHE comprises 26 principal investigators from 14 universities and research institutions distributed across four Gulf of Mexico states and other four states. It fuses into one group investigators with unique scientific and technical knowledge and extensive publications related to oil fate/transport processes, oceanic and atmospheric turbulence, air-sea interactions, tropical cyclones and winter storms, and coastal and nearshore modeling and observations. Our primary goal is to accurately predict the fate of hydrocarbons released into the environment. Achieving this goal is particularly challenging since petroleum releases into the environment interact with natural processes across six orders of magnitude of time and space scales. We are developing a multi-scale modeling tool by incorporating state-of-the-art hydrophysical models, each applicable for a restricted range of scales, into a single, interconnected modeling system to predict the physical dispersal of hydrocarbons across scales ranging from the microscale at the wellhead to oceanic and atmospheric mesoscales. CARTHE is also conducting novel in-situ observations and laboratory experiments specifically designed for quantifying submesoscale dispersion as well as for both model validation and parameterization. Finally, we are providing a robust set of uncertainty metrics and analysis tools to assess model performance and quantify predictive uncertainty

Data assimilation considerations for improved ocean predictability during the Gulf of Mexico Grand Lagrangian Deployment (GLAD)

•Extensive drifter observations allow new understanding to data assimilation.•Background error covariance is the point at which assumptions have historically been placed.•Components of background error covariance are tested to determine impact.•Amplitude of background error covariance is a critical factor.•Time correlation in background errors must be considered in 3DVar and 4DVar.Ocean prediction systems rely on an array of assumptions to optimize their data assimilation schemes. Many of these remain untested, especially at smaller scales, because sufficiently dense observations are very rare. A set of 295 drifters deployed in July 2012 in the north-eastern Gulf of Mexico provides a unique opportunity to test these systems down to scales previously unobtainable. In this study, background error covariance assumptions in the 3DVar assimilation process are perturbed to understand the effect on the solution relative to the withheld dense drifter data. Results show that the amplitude of the background error covariance is an important factor as expected, and a proposed new formulation provides added skill. In addition, the background error covariance time correlation is important to allow satellite observations to affect the results over a period longer than one daily assimilation cycle. The results show the new background error covariance formulations provide more accurate placement of frontal positions, directions of currents and velocity magnitudes. These conclusions have implications for the implementation of 3DVar systems as well as the analysis interval of 4DVar systems