The periodicity of the η Carinae events

Extensive spectral observations of η Carinae over the last cycle, and particularly around the 2003.5 low-excitation event, have been obtained. The variability of both narrow and broad lines, when combined with data taken from two earlier cycles, reveal a common and well-defined period. We have combined the cycle lengths derived from the many lines in the optical spectrum with those from broad-band X-rays, optical and near-infrared observations, and obtained a period length of Ppres = 2022.7 ± 1.3 d. Spectroscopic data collected during the last 60 yr yield an average period of Pavg = 2020 ± 4 d, consistent with the present-day period. The period cannot have changed by more than ΔP/P = 0.0007 since 1948. This confirms the previous claims of a true, stable periodicity, and gives strong support to the binary scenario. We have used the disappearance of the narrow component of He I 6678 to define the epoch of the Cycle 11 minimum, T0 = JD 245 2819.8. The next event is predicted to occur on 2009 January 11 (±2 d). The dates for the start of the minimum in other spectral features and broad-bands are very close to this date, and have well-determined time-delays from the He I epoch.Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísica

The periodicity of the η Carinae events

Extensive spectral observations of η Carinae over the last cycle, and particularly around the 2003.5 low-excitation event, have been obtained. The variability of both narrow and broad lines, when combined with data taken from two earlier cycles, reveal a common and well-defined period. We have combined the cycle lengths derived from the many lines in the optical spectrum with those from broad-band X-rays, optical and near-infrared observations, and obtained a period length of Ppres = 2022.7 ± 1.3 d. Spectroscopic data collected during the last 60 yr yield an average period of Pavg = 2020 ± 4 d, consistent with the present-day period. The period cannot have changed by more than ΔP/P = 0.0007 since 1948. This confirms the previous claims of a true, stable periodicity, and gives strong support to the binary scenario. We have used the disappearance of the narrow component of He I 6678 to define the epoch of the Cycle 11 minimum, T0 = JD 245 2819.8. The next event is predicted to occur on 2009 January 11 (±2 d). The dates for the start of the minimum in other spectral features and broad-bands are very close to this date, and have well-determined time-delays from the He I epoch.Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísica

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

The periodicity of the η Carinae events

Extensive spectral observations of η Carinae over the last cycle, and particularly around the 2003.5 low-excitation event, have been obtained. The variability of both narrow and broad lines, when combined with data taken from two earlier cycles, reveal a common and well-defined period. We have combined the cycle lengths derived from the many lines in the optical spectrum with those from broad-band X-rays, optical and near-infrared observations, and obtained a period length of Ppres = 2022.7 ± 1.3 d. Spectroscopic data collected during the last 60 yr yield an average period of Pavg = 2020 ± 4 d, consistent with the present-day period. The period cannot have changed by more than ΔP/P = 0.0007 since 1948. This confirms the previous claims of a true, stable periodicity, and gives strong support to the binary scenario. We have used the disappearance of the narrow component of He I 6678 to define the epoch of the Cycle 11 minimum, T0 = JD 245 2819.8. The next event is predicted to occur on 2009 January 11 (±2 d). The dates for the start of the minimum in other spectral features and broad-bands are very close to this date, and have well-determined time-delays from the He I epoch.Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísica

Quality indicators for patients with traumatic brain injury in European intensive care units

Background: The aim of this study is to validate a previously published consensus-based quality indicator set for the management of patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) at intensive care units (ICUs) in Europe and to study its potential for quality measur

Changing care pathways and between-center practice variations in intensive care for traumatic brain injury across Europe

Purpose: To describe ICU stay, selected management aspects, and outcome of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) in Europe, and to quantify variation across centers. Methods: This is a prospective observational multicenter study conducted across 18 countries in Europe and Israel. Admission characteristics, clinical data, and outcome were described at patient- and center levels. Between-center variation in the total ICU population was quantified with the median odds ratio (MOR), with correction for case-mix and random variation between centers. Results: A total of 2138 patients were admitted to the ICU, with median age of 49 years; 36% of which were mild TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale; GCS 13–15). Within, 72 h 636 (30%) were discharged and 128 (6%) died. Early deaths and long-stay patients (> 72 h) had more severe injuries based on the GCS and neuroimaging characteristics, compared with short-stay patients. Long-stay patients received more monitoring and were treated at higher intensity, and experienced worse 6-month outcome compared to short-stay patients. Between-center variations were prominent in the proportion of short-stay patients (MOR = 2.3, p < 0.001), use of intracranial pressure (ICP) monitoring (MOR = 2.5, p < 0.001) and aggressive treatme

Machine learning algorithms performed no better than regression models for prognostication in traumatic brain injury

Objective: We aimed to explore the added value of common machine learning (ML) algorithms for prediction of outcome for moderate and severe traumatic brain injury. Study Design and Setting: We performed logistic regression (LR), lasso regression, and ridge regression with key baseline predictors in the IMPACT-II database (15 studies, n = 11,022). ML algorithms included support vector machines, random forests, gradient boosting machines, and artificial neural networks and were trained using the same predictors. To assess generalizability of predictions, we performed internal, internal-external, and external validation on the recent CENTER-TBI study (patients with Glasgow Coma Scale <13, n = 1,554). Both calibration (calibration slope/intercept) and discrimination (area under the curve) was quantified. Results: In the IMPACT-II database, 3,332/11,022 (30%) died and 5,233(48%) had unfavorable outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale less than 4). In the CENTER-TBI study, 348/1,554(29%) died and 651(54%) had unfavorable outcome. Discrimination and calibration varied widely between the studies and less so between the studied algorithms. The mean area under the curve was 0.82 for mortality and 0.77 for unfavorable outcomes in the CENTER-TBI study. Conclusion: ML algorithms may not outperform traditional regression approaches in a low-dimensional setting for outcome prediction after moderate or severe traumatic brain injury. Similar to regression-based prediction models, ML algorithms should be rigorously validated to ensure applicability to new populations

Diving into the vertical dimension of elasmobranch movement ecology

Knowledge of the three-dimensional movement patterns of elasmobranchs is vital to understand their ecological roles and exposure to anthropogenic pressures. To date, comparative studies among species at global scales have mostly focused on horizontal movements. Our study addresses the knowledge gap of vertical movements by compiling the first global synthesis of vertical habitat use by elasmobranchs from data obtained by deployment of 989 biotelemetry tags on 38 elasmobranch species. Elasmobranchs displayed high intra- and interspecific variability in vertical movement patterns. Substantial vertical overlap was observed for many epipelagic elasmobranchs, indicating an increased likelihood to display spatial overlap, biologically interact, and share similar risk to anthropogenic threats that vary on a vertical gradient. We highlight the critical next steps toward incorporating vertical movement into global management and monitoring strategies for elasmobranchs, emphasizing the need to address geographic and taxonomic biases in deployments and to concurrently consider both horizontal and vertical movements