Is Independence Possible in an Interdependent World? Scotland vs. the UK's Participation in the European Economy. Bruges European Economic Policy (BEEP) Briefing 30/2013

Many commentators have criticised the strategy used to finance regional governments such as the Scottish Parliament – both the block grant system and the limited amount of fiscal autonomy devised in the Scotland Act of 2012. This lecture sets out to identify what level of autonomy or independence would best suit a regional economy in a currency union, and also the institutional changes needed to sustain those arrangements. Our argument is developed along three lines. First, we set out the advantages of a fiscal federalism framework and the institutions needed to support it, but which the Euro-zone currently lacks. The second is to elaborate a model of fiscal federalism where comprehensive powers of taxation and spending are devolved (an independent Scotland and the UK remain constituent members of the EU and European economy). Third, we evaluate the main arguments for the breakup of nations or economic unions with Scotland and the UK as leading examples. We note that greater autonomy may not result in increases in long run economic growth rate, but it does imply that enhancing the fiscal competence and responsibility of regional governments would result in productivity gains and hence higher levels of GDP per head. That means the population is permanently richer than before, even if ultimately their incomes continue to grow at the same rate. It turns out that these improvements can be achieved through devolved tax powers, but not through devolved spending powers or shared taxes

Monetary and Fiscal Policies Interaction in Monetary Unions

In this paper, the literature on the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in a monetary union is surveyed. By adopting the concept of symbiosis as a starting point, the paper highlights the importance of uncertainty, policy makers' preferences and targets. Then, the role of commitment to policy rules and coordination is addressed. The analysis also focuses on the importance of the data considered for the generation of the policy mix. As a final step, the paper discusses the main results in the literature on public debt management in a monetary union. All the reported theoretical results are then adopted to retrieve policy and institutional implications for the European Monetary Union

Time Protection: the Missing OS Abstraction

Timing channels enable data leakage that threatens the security of computer systems, from cloud platforms to smartphones and browsers executing untrusted third-party code. Preventing unauthorised information flow is a core duty of the operating system, however, present OSes are unable to prevent timing channels. We argue that OSes must provide time protection in addition to the established memory protection. We examine the requirements of time protection, present a design and its implementation in the seL4 microkernel, and evaluate its efficacy as well as performance overhead on Arm and x86 processors

Conceptually driven and visually rich tasks in texts and teaching practice: the case of infinite series

The study we report here examines parts of what Chevallard calls the institutional dimension of the students’ learning experience of a relatively under-researched, yet crucial, concept in Analysis, the concept of infinite series. In particular, we examine how the concept is introduced to students in texts and in teaching practice. To this purpose, we employ Duval's Theory of Registers of Semiotic Representation towards the analysis of 22 texts used in Canada and UK post-compulsory courses. We also draw on interviews with in-service teachers and university lecturers in order to discuss briefly teaching practice and some of their teaching suggestions. Our analysis of the texts highlights that the presentation of the concept is largely a-historical, with few graphical representations, few opportunities to work across different registers (algebraic, graphical, verbal), few applications or intra-mathematical references to the concept's significance and few conceptually driven tasks that go beyond practising with the application of convergence tests and prepare students for the complex topics in which the concept of series is implicated. Our preliminary analysis of the teacher interviews suggests that pedagogical practice often reflects the tendencies in the texts. Furthermore, the interviews with the university lecturers point at the pedagogical potential of: illustrative examples and evocative visual representations in teaching; and, student engagement with systematic guesswork and writing explanatory accounts of their choices and applications of convergence tests

Evidence-based planning and costing palliative care services for children : novel multi-method epidemiological and economic exemplar

Background: Children’s palliative care is a relatively new clinical specialty. Its nature is multi-dimensional and its delivery necessarily multi-professional. Numerous diverse public and not-for-profit organisations typically provide services and support. Because services are not centrally coordinated, they are provided in a manner that is inconsistent and incoherent. Since the first children’s hospice opened in 1982, the epidemiology of life-limiting conditions has changed with more children living longer, and many requiring transfer to adult services. Very little is known about the number of children living within any given geographical locality, costs of care, or experiences of children with ongoing palliative care needs and their families. We integrated evidence, and undertook and used novel methodological epidemiological work to develop the first evidence-based and costed commissioning exemplar. Methods: Multi-method epidemiological and economic exemplar from a health and not-for-profit organisation perspective, to estimate numbers of children under 19 years with life-limiting conditions, cost current services, determine child/parent care preferences, and cost choice of end-of-life care at home. Results: The exemplar locality (North Wales) had important gaps in service provision and the clinical network. The estimated annual total cost of current children’s palliative care was about £5.5 million; average annual care cost per child was £22,771 using 2007 prevalence estimates and £2,437- £11,045 using new 2012/13 population-based prevalence estimates. Using population-based prevalence, we estimate 2271 children with a life-limiting condition in the general exemplar population and around 501 children per year with ongoing palliative care needs in contact with hospital services. Around 24 children with a wide range of life-limiting conditions require end-of-life care per year. Choice of end-of-life care at home was requested, which is not currently universally available. We estimated a minimum (based on 1 week of end-of-life care) additional cost of £336,000 per year to provide end-of-life support at home. Were end-of-life care to span 4 weeks, the total annual additional costs increases to £536,500 (2010/11 prices). Conclusions: Findings make a significant contribution to population-based needs assessment and commissioning methodology in children’s palliative care. Further work is needed to determine with greater precision which children in the total population require access to services and when. Half of children who died 2002-7 did not have conditions that met the globally used children's palliative care condition categories, which need revision in light of findings

Small rock-slope failures conditioned by Holocene permafrost degradation:a new approach and conceptual model based on Schmidt-hammer exposure-age dating, Jotunheimen, southern Norway

Rock-slope failures (RSFs) constitute significant natural hazards but the geophysical processes which control their timing are poorly understood. However, robust chronologies can provide valuable information on the environmental controls on RSF occurrence: information which can inform models of RSF activity in response to climatic forcing. This paper uses Schmidt-hammer exposure-age dating (SHD) of boulder deposits to construct a detailed regional Holocene chronology of the frequency and magnitude of small rock-slope failures (SRSFs) in Jotunheimen, Norway. By focusing on the depositional fans of SRSFs (≤ 103 m3), rather than on the corresponding features of massive RSFs (~108 m3), 92 single-event RSFs are targeted for chronology building. A weighted SHD age-frequency distribution and probability density function analysis indicate four centennial- to millennial-scale periods of enhanced SRSF frequency, with a dominant mode at ~4.5 ka. Using change detection and discreet Meyer wavelet analysis, in combination with existing permafrost depth models, we propose that enhanced SRSF activity was primarily controlled by permafrost degradation. Long-term relative change in permafrost depth provides a compelling explanation for the high-magnitude departures from the SRSF background rate and accounts for (i1) the timing of peak SRSF frequency, (2ii) the significant lag (~2.2 ka) between the Holocene Thermal Maximum and the SRSF frequency peak, and (3iii) the marked decline in frequency in the late-Holocene. This interpretation is supported by geomorphological evidence, as the spatial distribution of SRSFs is strongly correlated with the aspect-dependent lower altitudinal limit of mountain permafrost in cliff faces. Results are indicative of a causal relationship between episodes of relatively warm climate, permafrost degradation and the transition to a seasonal-freezing climatic regime. This study highlights permafrost degradation as a conditioning factor for cliff collapse, and hence the importance of paraperiglacial processes; a result with implications for slope instability in glacial and periglacial environments under global warming scenarios

Timing of glacial retreat in the Wicklow Mountains, Ireland, conditioned by glacier size and topography

This paper presents 170 Schmidt Hammer exposure ages from moraine boulders and glacially-sculpted bedrock to reveal the post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) history of the Wicklow Mountains, Ireland. These data suggest that large ice masses survived for 4-7 ka after retreat of the Irish Sea Ice Stream and were sustained by summit ice-fields until ~16.6 ka. Post-LGM retreat was dynamic, with re-advance moraines deposited in response to Heinrich Stadial 1. However, these events reflect short-term ice front oscillations (≤ 1 ka) during the long-term retreat phase. Retreat from re-advance positions was synchronous across the range and paced by climate, with time-progressive deglaciation from low to high elevation. In contrast, marked asynchroneity in the timing of Younger Dryas deglaciation is closely linked to snow redistribution and indicates that for small cirque glaciers (≤ 1 km2 ), topography can exert the primary control on glacier survival. This result has important implications for palaeoclimate econstructions as cirque glacier dynamics may be unrelated to climate. This is further complicated by post-depositional processes which can result in moraine ages (e.g. 10Be) which post-date retreat. Future palaeoclimate studies should prioritise cirque glaciers where snow contributing areas are small and where postdepositional disturbance is limited (matrix-poor, boulder-rich moraines)