The application of componentised modelling techniques to catastrophe model generation

In this paper we show that integrated environmental modelling (IEM) techniques can be used to generate a catastrophe model for groundwater flooding. Catastrophe models are probabilistic models based upon sets of events representing the hazard and weights their likelihood with the impact of such an event happening which is then used to estimate future financial losses. These probabilistic loss estimates often underpin re-insurance transactions. Modelled loss estimates can vary significantly, because of the assumptions used within the models. A rudimentary insurance-style catastrophe model for groundwater flooding has been created by linking seven individual components together. Each component is linked to the next using an open modelling framework (i.e. an implementation of OpenMI). Finally, we discuss how a flexible model integration methodology, such as described in this paper, facilitates a better understanding of the assumptions used within the catastrophe model by enabling the interchange of model components created using different, yet appropriate, assumptions

Visualization of Self-Assembly and Hydration of a β-Hairpin through Integrated Small and Wide-Angle Neutron Scattering

Fundamental understanding of the structure and assembly of nanoscale building blocks is crucial for the development of novel biomaterials with defined architectures and function. However, accessing self-consistent structural information across multiple length scales is challenging. This limits opportunities to exploit atomic scale interactions to achieve emergent macroscale properties. In this work we present an integrative small- and wide-angle neutron scattering approach coupled with computational modeling to reveal the multiscale structure of hierarchically self-assembled β hairpins in aqueous solution across 4 orders of magnitude in length scale from 0.1 Å to 300 nm. Our results demonstrate the power of this self-consistent cross-length scale approach and allows us to model both the large-scale self-assembly and small-scale hairpin hydration of the model β hairpin CLN025. Using this combination of techniques, we map the hydrophobic/hydrophilic character of this model self-assembled biomolecular surface with atomic resolution. These results have important implications for the multiscale investigation of aqueous peptides and proteins, for the prediction of ligand binding and molecular associations for drug design, and for understanding the self-assembly of peptides and proteins for functional biomaterials

A dual center and dual vendor comparison study of automated perfusion‐weighted phase‐resolved functional lung magnetic resonance imaging with dynamic contrast‐enhanced magnetic resonance imaging in patients with cystic fibrosis

For sensitive diagnosis and monitoring of pulmonary disease, ionizing radiation-free imaging methods are of great importance. A noncontrast and free-breathing proton magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) technique for assessment of pulmonary perfusion is phase-resolved functional lung (PREFUL) MRI. Since there is no validation of PREFUL MRI across different centers and scanners, the purpose of this study was to compare perfusion-weighted PREFUL MRI with the well-established dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI across two centers on scanners from two different vendors. Sixteen patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) (Center 1: 10 patients; Center 2: 6 patients) underwent PREFUL and DCE MRI at 1.5T in the same imaging session. Normalized perfusion-weighted values and perfusion defect percentage (QDP) values were calculated for the whole lung and three central slices (dorsal, central, ventral of the carina). Obtained parameters were compared using Pearson correlation, Spearman correlation, Bland–Altman analysis, Wilcoxon signed-rank test, and Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Moderate-to-strong correlations between normalized perfusion-weighted PREFUL and DCE values were found (posterior slice: r = 0.69, p  0.07). The feasibility of PREFUL MRI across two different centers and two different vendors was shown in patients with CF and obtained results were in agreement with DCE MRI

Determinants of cognitive performance and decline in 20 diverse ethno-regional groups: A COSMIC collaboration cohort study

Background: With no effective treatments for cognitive decline or dementia, improving the evidence base for modifiable risk factors is a research priority. This study investigated associations between risk factors and late-life cognitive decline on a global scale, including comparisons between ethno-regional groups. Methods and findings: We harmonized longitudinal data from 20 population-based cohorts from 15 countries over 5 continents, including 48,522 individuals (58.4% women) aged 54–105 (mean = 72.7) years and without dementia at baseline. Studies had 2–15 years of follow-up. The risk factors investigated were age, sex, education, alcohol consumption, anxiety, apolipoprotein E ε4 allele (APOE*4) status, atrial fibrillation, blood pressure and pulse pressure, body mass index, cardiovascular disease, depression, diabetes, self-rated health, high cholesterol, hypertension, peripheral vascular disease, physical activity, smoking, and history of stroke. Associations with risk factors were determined for a global cognitive composite outcome (memory, language, processing speed, and executive functioning tests) and Mini-Mental State Examination score. Individual participant data meta-analyses of multivariable linear mixed model results pooled across cohorts revealed that for at least 1 cognitive outcome, age (B = −0.1, SE = 0.01), APOE*4 carriage (B = −0.31, SE = 0.11), depression (B = −0.11, SE = 0.06), diabetes (B = −0.23, SE = 0.10), current smoking (B = −0.20, SE = 0.08), and history of stroke (B = −0.22, SE = 0.09) were independently associated with poorer cognitive performance (p < 0.05 for all), and higher levels of education (B = 0.12, SE = 0.02) and vigorous physical activity (B = 0.17, SE = 0.06) were associated with better performance (p < 0.01 for both). Age (B = −0.07, SE = 0.01), APOE*4 carriage (B = −0.41, SE = 0.18), and diabetes (B = −0.18, SE = 0.10) were independently associated with faster cognitive decline (p < 0.05 for all). Different effects between Asian people and white people included stronger associations for Asian people between ever smoking and poorer cognition (group by risk factor interaction: B = −0.24, SE = 0.12), and between diabetes and cognitive decline (B = −0.66, SE = 0.27; p < 0.05 for both). Limitations of our study include a loss or distortion of risk factor data with harmonization, and not investigating factors at midlife. Conclusions: These results suggest that education, smoking, physical activity, diabetes, and stroke are all modifiable factors associated with cognitive decline. If these factors are determined to be causal, controlling them could minimize worldwide levels of cognitive decline. However, any global prevention strategy may need to consider ethno-regional differences

Measurement of the splashback feature around SZ-selected Galaxy clusters with DES, SPT, and ACT

We present a detection of the splashback feature around galaxy clusters selected using the Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (SZ) signal. Recent measurements of the splashback feature around optically selected galaxy clusters have found that the splashback radius, rsp, is smaller than predicted by N-body simulations. A possible explanation for this discrepancy is that rsp inferred from the observed radial distribution of galaxies is affected by selection effects related to the optical cluster-finding algorithms. We test this possibility by measuring the splashback feature in clusters selected via the SZ effect in data from the South Pole Telescope SZ survey and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Polarimeter survey. The measurement is accomplished by correlating these cluster samples with galaxies detected in the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 data. The SZ observable used to select clusters in this analysis is expected to have a tighter correlation with halo mass and to be more immune to projection effects and aperture-induced biases, potentially ameliorating causes of systematic error for optically selected clusters. We find that the measured rsp for SZ-selected clusters is consistent with the expectations from simulations, although the small number of SZ-selected clusters makes a precise comparison difficult. In agreement with previous work, when using optically selected redMaPPer clusters with similar mass and redshift distributions, rsp is ∼2σ smaller than in the simulations. These results motivate detailed investigations of selection biases in optically selected cluster catalogues and exploration of the splashback feature around larger samples of SZ-selected clusters. Additionally, we investigate trends in the galaxy profile and splashback feature as a function of galaxy colour, finding that blue galaxies have profiles close to a power law with no discernible splashback feature, which is consistent with them being on their first infall into the cluster

Onset of collectivity in neutron deficient Po196,198

We have studied via in-beam -ray spectroscopy Po196 and Po198, which are the first neutron-deficient Po isotopes to exhibit a collective low-lying structure. The ratios of yrast state energies and the E2 branching ratios of transitions from non-yrast to yrast states are indicative of a low-lying vibrational structure. The onset of collective motion in these isotopes can be attributed to the opening of the neutron i13/2 orbital at N112 and the resulting large overlap between the two valence protons in the h9/2 orbital and the valence neutrons in the i13/2 orbital