Improving Hurricane Power Outage Prediction Models Through the Inclusion of Local Environmental Factors

Tropical cyclones can significantly damage the electrical power system, so an accurate spatiotemporal forecast of outages prior to landfall can help utilities to optimize the power restoration process. The purpose of this article is to enhance the predictive accuracy of the Spatially Generalized Hurricane Outage Prediction Model (SGHOPM) developed by Guikema et al. (2014). In this version of the SGHOPM, we introduce a new two‐step prediction procedure and increase the number of predictor variables. The first model step predicts whether or not outages will occur in each location and the second step predicts the number of outages. The SGHOPM environmental variables of Guikema et al. (2014) were limited to the wind characteristics (speed and duration of strong winds) of the tropical cyclones. This version of the model adds elevation, land cover, soil, precipitation, and vegetation characteristics in each location. Our results demonstrate that the use of a new two‐step outage prediction model and the inclusion of these additional environmental variables increase the overall accuracy of the SGHOPM by approximately 17%.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147200/1/risa12728_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147200/2/risa12728.pd

Assessing the capacity of local ecosystems to meet industrial demand for ecosystem services

Despite the importance of ecosystems, engineering activities continue to ignore or greatly undervalue their role. Consequently, engineered systems often overshoot nature's capacity to support them, causing ecological degradation. Such systems tend to be inherently unsustainable, and they often fail to benefit from nature's ability to provide essential goods and services. This work explores the idea of including ecosystems in chemical processes, and assesses whether such a techno-ecological synergistic system can operate within ecological constraints. The demand for ecosystem services is quantified by emissions and resources used, while the supply is provided by ecosystems on the manufacturing site. Application to a biodiesel manufacturing site demonstrates that ecosystems can be economically and environmentally superior to conventional technologies for making progress toward zero emissions and net positive impact manufacturing. These results highlight the need for shifting the paradigm of engineering from that of dominating nature to embracing nature and respecting its limits

Attenuated allergic airway hyperresponsiveness in C57BL/6 mice is associated with enhanced surfactant protein (SP)-D production following allergic sensitization

BACKGROUND: C57BL/6 mice have attenuated allergic airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR) when compared with Balb/c mice but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. SP-D, an innate immune molecule with potent immunosuppressive activities may have an important modulatory role in the allergic airway response and the consequent physiological changes. We hypothesized that an elevated SP-D production is associated with the impaired ability of C57BL/6 mice to develop allergic AHR. METHODS: SP-D mRNA and protein expression was investigated during development of allergic airway changes in a model of Aspergillus fumigatus (Af)-induced allergic inflammation. To study whether strain dependency of allergic AHR is associated with different levels of SP-D in the lung, Balb/c and C57BL/6 mice were compared. RESULTS: Sensitization and exposure to Af induced significant airway inflammation in both mouse strains in comparison with naïve controls. AHR to acetylcholine however was significantly attenuated in C57BL/6 mice in spite of increased eosinophilia and serum IgE when compared with Balb/c mice (p < 0.05). Af challenge of sensitized C57BL/6 mice induced a markedly increased SP-D protein expression in the SA surfactant fraction (1,894 ± 170% of naïve controls) that was 1.5 fold greater than the increase in Balb/c mice (1,234 ± 121% p < 0.01). These changes were selective since levels of the hydrophobic SP-B and SP-C and the hydrophilic SP-A were significantly decreased following sensitization and challenge with Af in both strains. Further, sensitized and exposed C57BL/6 mice had significantly lower IL-4 and IL-5 in the BAL fluid than that of Balb/c mice (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that enhanced SP-D production in the lung of C57BL/6 mice may contribute to an attenuated AHR in response to allergic airway sensitization. SP-D may act by inhibiting synthesis of Th2 cytokines

Accreting Millisecond X-Ray Pulsars

Accreting Millisecond X-Ray Pulsars (AMXPs) are astrophysical laboratories without parallel in the study of extreme physics. In this chapter we review the past fifteen years of discoveries in the field. We summarize the observations of the fifteen known AMXPs, with a particular emphasis on the multi-wavelength observations that have been carried out since the discovery of the first AMXP in 1998. We review accretion torque theory, the pulse formation process, and how AMXP observations have changed our view on the interaction of plasma and magnetic fields in strong gravity. We also explain how the AMXPs have deepened our understanding of the thermonuclear burst process, in particular the phenomenon of burst oscillations. We conclude with a discussion of the open problems that remain to be addressed in the future.Comment: Review to appear in "Timing neutron stars: pulsations, oscillations and explosions", T. Belloni, M. Mendez, C.M. Zhang Eds., ASSL, Springer; [revision with literature updated, several typos removed, 1 new AMXP added

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

VEGF-A isoforms differentially regulate ATF-2-dependent VCAM-1 gene expression and endothelial-leukocyte interactions

Vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGF-A) regulates many aspects of vascular physiology. VEGF-A stimulates signal transduction pathways that modulate endothelial outputs such as cell migration, proliferation, tubulogenesis, and cell-cell interactions. Multiple VEGF-A isoforms exist, but the biological significance of this is unclear. Here we analyzed VEGF-A isoform-specific stimulation of VCAM-1 gene expression, which controls endothelial-leukocyte interactions, and show that this is dependent on both ERK1/2 and activating transcription factor-2 (ATF-2). VEGF-A isoforms showed differential ERK1/2 and p38 MAPK phosphorylation kinetics. A key feature of VEGF-A isoform-specific ERK1/2 activation and nuclear translocation was increased phosphorylation of ATF-2 on threonine residue 71 (T71). Using reverse genetics, we showed ATF-2 to be functionally required for VEGF-A-stimulated endothelial VCAM-1 gene expression. ATF-2 knockdown blocked VEGF-A-stimulated VCAM-1 expression and endothelial-leukocyte interactions. ATF-2 was also required for other endothelial cell outputs, such as cell migration and tubulogenesis. In contrast, VCAM-1 was essential only for promoting endothelial-leukocyte interactions. This work presents a new paradigm for understanding how soluble growth factor isoforms program complex cellular outputs and responses by modulating signal transduction pathways

Identifying and Prioritizing Greater Sage-Grouse Nesting and Brood-Rearing Habitat for Conservation in Human-Modified Landscapes

BACKGROUND: Balancing animal conservation and human use of the landscape is an ongoing scientific and practical challenge throughout the world. We investigated reproductive success in female greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) relative to seasonal patterns of resource selection, with the larger goal of developing a spatially-explicit framework for managing human activity and sage-grouse conservation at the landscape level. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We integrated field-observation, Global Positioning Systems telemetry, and statistical modeling to quantify the spatial pattern of occurrence and risk during nesting and brood-rearing. We linked occurrence and risk models to provide spatially-explicit indices of habitat-performance relationships. As part of the analysis, we offer novel biological information on resource selection during egg-laying, incubation, and night. The spatial pattern of occurrence during all reproductive phases was driven largely by selection or avoidance of terrain features and vegetation, with little variation explained by anthropogenic features. Specifically, sage-grouse consistently avoided rough terrain, selected for moderate shrub cover at the patch level (within 90 m(2)), and selected for mesic habitat in mid and late brood-rearing phases. In contrast, risk of nest and brood failure was structured by proximity to anthropogenic features including natural gas wells and human-created mesic areas, as well as vegetation features such as shrub cover. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Risk in this and perhaps other human-modified landscapes is a top-down (i.e., human-mediated) process that would most effectively be minimized by developing a better understanding of specific mechanisms (e.g., predator subsidization) driving observed patterns, and using habitat-performance indices such as those developed herein for spatially-explicit guidance of conservation intervention. Working under the hypothesis that industrial activity structures risk by enhancing predator abundance or effectiveness, we offer specific recommendations for maintaining high-performance habitat and reducing low-performance habitat, particularly relative to the nesting phase, by managing key high-risk anthropogenic features such as industrial infrastructure and water developments