105 research outputs found

    Climate and atmospheric circulation during the Early and Mid-Holocene inferred from lake-carbonate oxygen-isotope records from western Ireland

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    The Early to Mid-Holocene experienced marked climate change over the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes in response to changing insolation and declining ice volume. Oxygen isotopes from lake sediments provide a valuable climate proxy, encoding information regarding temperature, hydroclimate and moisture source. We present oxygen-isotope records from two lakes in western Ireland that are strongly influenced by the North Atlantic. Excellent replication between the records suggests they reflect regional, not local, influences. Carbonate oxygen-isotope values peaked at the start of the Holocene, between 11.2 and 11.1 cal ka bp, and then decreased markedly until 6 cal ka bp at both sites. Palaeoecological evidence supports only modest change in temperature or hydroclimate during this interval and we therefore explain the decrease primarily by a reduction in the oxygen-isotope composition of precipitation (δ18Oppt). We show a similar decrease in δ18O values in a forward model of carbonate isotopes between 12–11 and 6–5 cal ka bp. However, the inferred reduction in δ18Oppt between the Early and Mid-Holocene in the model is mainly linked to a decrease in the δ18O of the ocean source water from ice sheet melting whereas the lake carbonate isotope records are more consistent with changes in the transport pathway of moisture associated with atmospheric circulation change as the dominant cause

    Comparison of the oxygen isotope signatures in speleothem records and iHadCM3 model simulations for the last millennium

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    Improving the understanding of changes in the mean and variability of climate variables as well as their interrelation is crucial for reliable climate change projections. Comparisons between general circulation models and paleoclimate archives using indirect proxies for temperature or precipitation have been used to test and validate the capability of climate models to represent climate changes. The oxygen isotopic ratio δ18O, a proxy for many different climate variables, is routinely measured in speleothem samples at decadal or higher resolution, and single specimens can cover full glacial–interglacial cycles. The calcium carbonate cave deposits are precisely dateable and provide well preserved (semi-)continuous albeit multivariate climate signals in the lower and mid-latitudes, where the measured δ18O in the mineral does not directly represent temperature or precipitation. Therefore, speleothems represent suitable archives to assess climate model abilities to simulate climate variability beyond the timescales covered by meteorological observations (101–102 years). Here, we present three transient isotope-enabled simulations from the Hadley Center Climate Model version 3 (iHadCM3) covering the last millennium (850–1850 CE) and compare them to a large global dataset of speleothem δ18O records from the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and AnaLysis (SISAL) database version 2 (Comas-Bru et al., 2020b). We systematically evaluate offsets in mean and variance of simulated δ18O and test for the main climate drivers recorded in δ18O for individual records or regions. The time-mean spatial offsets between the simulated δ18O and the speleothem data are fairly small. However, using robust filters and spectral analysis, we show that the observed archive-based variability of δ18O is lower than simulated by iHadCM3 on decadal and higher on centennial timescales. Most of this difference can likely be attributed to the records' lower temporal resolution and averaging or smoothing processes affecting the δ18O signal, e.g., through soil water residence times. Using cross-correlation analyses at site level and modeled grid-box level, we find evidence for highly variable but generally low signal-to-noise ratios in the proxy data. This points to a high influence of cave-internal processes and regional climate particularities and could suggest low regional representativity of individual sites. Long-range strong positive correlations dominate the speleothem correlation network but are much weaker in the simulation. One reason for this could lie in a lack of long-term internal climate variability in these model simulations, which could be tested by repeating similar comparisons with other isotope-enabled climate models and paleoclimate databases

    Contrasting state-dependent effects of natural forcing on global and local climate variability

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    Natural forcing from solar and volcanic activity contributes significantly to climate variability. The post-eruption cooling of strong volcanic eruptions was hypothesized to have led to millennial-scale variability during Glacials. Cooling induced by volcanic eruption is potentially weaker in the warmer climate. The underlying question is whether the climatic response to natural forcing is state-dependent. Here, we quantify the response to natural forcing under Last Glacial and Pre-Industrial conditions in an ensemble of climate model simulations. We evaluate internal and forced variability on annual to multicentennial scales. The global temperature response reveals no state dependency. Small local differences result mainly from state-dependent sea ice changes. Variability in forced simulations matches paleoclimate reconstructions significantly better than in unforced scenarios. Considering natural forcing is therefore important for model-data comparison and future projections

    Accuracy and Efficiency of Recording Pediatric Early Warning Scores Using an Electronic Physiological Surveillance System Compared With Traditional Paper-Based Documentation

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    Pediatric Early Warning Scores are advocated to assist health professionals to identify early signs of serious illness or deterioration in hospitalized children. Scores are derived from the weighting applied to recorded vital signs and clinical observations reflecting deviation from a predetermined "norm." Higher aggregate scores trigger an escalation in care aimed at preventing critical deterioration. Process errors made while recording these data, including plotting or calculation errors, have the potential to impede the reliability of the score. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a controlled study of documentation using five clinical vignettes. We measured the accuracy of vital sign recording, score calculation, and time taken to complete documentation using a handheld electronic physiological surveillance system, VitalPAC Pediatric, compared with traditional paper-based charts. We explored the user acceptability of both methods using a Web-based survey. Twenty-three staff participated in the controlled study. The electronic physiological surveillance system improved the accuracy of vital sign recording, 98.5% versus 85.6%, P < .02, Pediatric Early Warning Score calculation, 94.6% versus 55.7%, P < .02, and saved time, 68 versus 98 seconds, compared with paper-based documentation, P < .002. Twenty-nine staff completed the Web-based survey. They perceived that the electronic physiological surveillance system offered safety benefits by reducing human error while providing instant visibility of recorded data to the entire clinical team

    Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation impacts on water isotope records during the Last Interglacial

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    Plain Language Summary The Last Interglacial period (LIG, 116,000 to 130,000 years ago) was globally ∼ 0.8 °C warmer than today at its peak, with substantially more warming at the poles. It is a valuable analogue for future global temperature rise, especially for understanding rates and sources of polar ice melt and subsequent global sea level rise. Records of water stable isotopes from Antarctic ice cores have been crucial for understanding past polar temperature during the LIG. However we currently lack a framework for estimating how changes in the ice sheet elevation, alongside sea‐ice feedbacks, affect these water stable isotopes. To address this, we examine the effect of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) elevation on water stable isotopes, using an ensemble of climate simulations where we vary the AIS elevation. We observe that (i) water stable isotope values lower with increasing AIS elevation following linear relationships, (ii) the effect of sea‐ice induced by AIS elevation is small so the effect of AIS elevation can be isolated. Finally, this study provides appropriate elevation‐water stable isotope gradients for the reconstruction of the AIS topography using ice cores. Abstract Changes of the topography of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) can complicate the interpretation of ice core water stable isotope measurements in terms of temperature. Here, we use a set of idealised AIS elevation change scenarios to investigate this for the warm Last Interglacial (LIG). We show that LIG δ 18 O against elevation relationships are not uniform across Antarctica, and that the LIG response to elevation is lower than the preindustrial response. The effect of LIG elevation‐induced sea ice changes on δ 18 O is small, allowing us to isolate the effect of elevation change alone. Our results help to define the effect of AIS changes on the LIG δ 18 O signals, and should be invaluable to those seeking to use AIS ice core measurements for these purposes. Especially, our simulations strengthen the conclusion that ice core measurements from the Talos Dome core exclude the loss of the Wilkes Basin at around 128 ky

    Offshore aquaculture of finfish: Big expectations at sea

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    Offshore aquaculture has gained momentum in recent years, and the production of an increasing number of marine fish species is being relocated offshore. Initially, predictions of the advantages that offshore aquaculture would present over nearshore farming were made without enough science-based evidence. Now, with more scientific knowledge, this review revisits past predictions and expectations of offshore aquaculture. We analysed and explained the oceanographic features that define offshore and nearshore sites. Using Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) as a case study, we focussed on sea lice, amoebic gill disease, and the risk of harmful algal blooms, as well as the direct effects of the oceanography on the health and physiology of fish. The operational and licencing challenges and advantages of offshore aquaculture are also considered. The lack of space in increasingly saturated sheltered areas will push new farms out to offshore locations and, if appropriate steps are followed, offshore aquaculture can be successful. Firstly, the physical capabilities of the farmed fish species and infrastructure must be fully understood. Secondly, the oceanography of potential sites must be carefully studied to confirm that they are compatible with the species-specific capabilities. And, thirdly, an economic plan considering the operational costs and licencing limitations of the site must be developed. This review will serve as a guide and a compilation of information for researchers and stakeholders
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