Food security outcomes under a changing climate: impacts of mitigation and adaptation on vulnerability to food insecurity

Climate change is a potential threat to achieving food security, particularly in the most food insecure regions. However, interpreting climate change projections to better understand the potential impacts of a changing climate on food security outcomes is challenging. This paper addresses this challenge through presenting a framework that enables rapid country-level assessment of vulnerability to food insecurity under a range of climate change and adaptation investment scenarios. The results show that vulnerability to food insecurity is projected to increase under all emissions scenarios, and the geographic distribution of vulnerability is similar to that of the present-day; parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia are most severely affected. High levels of adaptation act to off-set these increases; however, only the scenario with the highest level of mitigation combined with high levels of adaptation shows improvements in vulnerability compared to the present-day. The results highlight the dual requirement for mitigation and adaptation to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and to make gains in tackling food insecurity. The approach is an update to the existing Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index methodology to enable future projections, and the framework presented allows rapid updates to the results as and when new information becomes available, such as updated country-level yield data or climate model output. This approach provides a framework for assessing policy-relevant human food security outcomes for use in long-term climate change and food security planning; the results have been made available on an interactive website for policymakers ( www.metoffice.gov.uk/food-insecurity-index )

Effect of vaccination on transmission of SARS-CoV-2

No abstract available

Environmental DNA reveals links between abundance and composition of airborne grass pollen and respiratory health

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordData and Code Availability Statement: Data collected using qPCR is archived and on NERC EIDC [https://doi.org/10.5285/28208be4-0163-45e6-912c-2db205126925]. Standard pollen monitoring ‘count’ data were sourced from the MEDMI database, with the exception of data from Bangor which were produced as part of the present study and are available on request. Prescribing datasets are publicly available, as are weather, air pollution, deprivation (IMD) and rural-urban category data. Hospital episode statistics (HES) datasets are sensitive, individual-level health data, which are subject to strict privacy regulations and are not publicly available. The study did not generate any unique codeGrass (Poaceae) pollen is the most important outdoor aeroallergen, exacerbating a range of respiratory conditions, including allergic asthma and rhinitis (‘hay fever’). Understanding the relationships between respiratory diseases and airborne grass pollen with view to improving forecasting has broad public health and socioeconomic relevance. It is estimated that there are over 400 million people with allergic rhinitis and over 300 million with asthma, globally, often comorbidly . In the UK, allergic asthma has an annual cost of around US$ 2.8 billion (2017). The relative contributions of the >11,000 (worldwide) grass species to respiratory health have been unresolved, as grass pollen cannot be readily discriminated using standard microscopy. Instead, here we used novel environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling and quantitative PCR (qPCR) , to measure the relative abundances of airborne pollen from common grass species, during two grass pollen seasons (2016 and 2017), across the UK. We quantitatively demonstrate discrete spatiotemporal patterns in airborne grass pollen assemblages. Using a series of generalised additive models (GAMs), we explore the relationship between the incidences of airborne pollen and severe asthma exacerbations (sub-weekly) and prescribing rates of drugs for respiratory allergies (monthly). Our results indicate that a subset of grass species may have disproportionate influence on these population-scale respiratory health responses during peak grass pollen concentrations. The work demonstrates the need for sensitive and detailed biomonitoring of harmful aeroallergens in order to investigate and mitigate their impacts on human health.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)Public Health EnglandUniversity of ExeterUniversity College LondonMet Offic

Advancing national animal health and welfare policy

The University College Dublin (UCD) School of Veterinary Medicine has a broad research agenda covering areas such as veterinary public health, epidemiology and national disease control, herd health management, drug delivery, pharmacology, parasitology, and One Health research. We work with national and international collaborators and, with the support of Zoetis, have a longstanding “UCD Squared” partnership with the University of California-Davis, which has established an ambitious program of research, drawing on expertise from a diverse community of veterinary and medical scientists and clinicians.Unusual, not sure if it can be called Journal Article or should be under another type perhap

Predicting the severity of the grass pollen season and the effect of climate change in Northwest Europe

Allergic rhinitis is an inflammation in the nose caused by overreaction of the immune system to allergens in the air. Managing allergic rhinitis symptoms is challenging and requires timely intervention. The following are major questions often posed by those with allergic rhinitis: How should I prepare for the forthcoming season? How will the season's severity develop over the years? No country yet provides clear guidance addressing these questions. We propose two previously unexplored approaches for forecasting the severity of the grass pollen season on the basis of statistical and mechanistic models. The results suggest annual severity is largely governed by preseasonal meteorological conditions. The mechanistic model suggests climate change will increase the season severity by up to 60%, in line with experimental chamber studies. These models can be used as forecasting tools for advising individuals with hay fever and health care professionals how to prepare for the grass pollen season

Child maltreatment and incident mental disorders in middle and older ages: a retrospective UK Biobank cohort study

Background: Understanding the mental health consequences of child maltreatment at different life stages is important in accurately quantifying the burden of maltreatment. This study investigated the association between child maltreatment and incident mental disorders in middle and older age as well as the potential mediators and moderators. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study of 56,082 participants from UK Biobank. Child maltreatment was recalled using the Childhood Trauma Screener. Incident mental disorders, including depressive, anxiety and affective disorders, behavioural syndromes, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), schizophrenia, substance abuse, and dementia, after baseline assessment were ascertained through linkage to primary care records. Findings: There was a dose-response relationship between child maltreatment and mental disorder. Those who experienced three or more maltreatment types had the highest risk of all mental disorders (HR 1.85, 95% CI: 1.67-2.06) followed by those who experienced two (HR 1.48, 95% CI: 1.35-1.63) and then one (HR 1.26, 95% CI: 1.19-2.35). Child maltreatment was most strongly associated with PTSD (HR 1.59, 95% CI: 1.20-2.10 P=0.001). The excess risk was largely unexplained by the included mediators. The association between child maltreatment and all mental disorders were stronger among participants who binge drank (Pinteraction=0.003) or had few social visits (Pinteraction=0.003). Interpretation: The mental health consequence of child maltreatment could last decades, even among those who had no recorded mental disorders in early adulthood. In the absence of strong mediators, prevention of child maltreatment remains the priority. Funding: Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Fund

The STAR trial protocol: a randomised multi-stage phase II/III study of Sunitinib comparing temporary cessation with allowing continuation, at the time of maximal radiological response, in the first-line treatment of locally advanced/ metastatic Renal Can

Abstract Background: Over recent years a number of novel therapies have shown promise in advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Internationally the standard of care of first-line therapy is sunitinib™, after a clear survival benefit was demonstrated over interferon-α. Convention dictates that sunitinib is continued until evidence of disease progression, assuming tolerability, although there is no evidence that this approach is superior to intermittent periods of treatment. The purpose of the STAR trial is to compare the standard treatment strategy (conventional continuation strategy, CCS) with a novel drug free interval strategy (DFIS) which includes planned treatment breaks

Study design and methods of the BoTULS trial: a randomised controlled trial to evaluate the clinical effect and cost effectiveness of treating upper limb spasticity due to stroke with botulinum toxin type A

Background Following a stroke, 55–75% of patients experience upper limb problems in the longer term. Upper limb spasticity may cause pain, deformity and reduced function, affecting mood and independence. Botulinum toxin is used increasingly to treat focal spasticity, but its impact on upper limb function after stroke is unclear. The aim of this study is to evaluate the clinical and cost effectiveness of botulinum toxin type A plus an upper limb therapy programme in the treatment of post stroke upper limb spasticity. Methods Trial design : A multi-centre open label parallel group randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation. Participants : Adults with upper limb spasticity at the shoulder, elbow, wrist or hand and reduced upper limb function due to stroke more than 1 month previously. Interventions : Botulinum toxin type A plus upper limb therapy (intervention group) or upper limb therapy alone (control group). Outcomes : Outcome assessments are undertaken at 1, 3 and 12 months. The primary outcome is upper limb function one month after study entry measured by the Action Research Arm Test (ARAT). Secondary outcomes include: spasticity (Modified Ashworth Scale); grip strength; dexterity (Nine Hole Peg Test); disability (Barthel Activities of Daily Living Index); quality of life (Stroke Impact Scale, Euroqol EQ-5D) and attainment of patient-selected goals (Canadian Occupational Performance Measure). Health and social services resource use, adverse events, use of other antispasticity treatments and patient views on the treatment will be compared. Participants are clinically reassessed at 3, 6 and 9 months to determine the need for repeat botulinum toxin type A and/or therapy. Randomisation : A web based central independent randomisation service. Blinding : Outcome assessments are undertaken by an assessor who is blinded to the randomisation group. Sample size : 332 participants provide 80% power to detect a 15% difference in treatment successes between intervention and control groups. Treatment success is defined as improvement of 3 points for those with a baseline ARAT of 0–3 and 6 points for those with ARAT of 4–56