Summary Report of FORGE WP4.1.2: verification of critical stress theory applied to repository concepts

This report outlines the major conclusions from an experimental study of 48 separate experiments with the primary aim to verify critical stress theory. Two main types of experiment were conducted: 1). Loading-unloading tests, where fracture flow was monitored at constant injection pressure as normal load was increased in steps to a given level and then reduced back to the starting stress state; 2). Gas breakthrough experiments, where gas injection pressure was increased in a pressure ramp at constant vertical load. These were conducted with and without active shear. It was found that critical stress theory is valid in predicting the preferential flow of gas in relation to the orientation of the fracture plane with respect to the maximum horizontal stress direction. However, loading unloading experiments showed that understanding the stress history of the rocks is of paramount importance and a mere knowledge of the current stress state is insufficient in accurately predicting the nature of fluid flow

Modelling the habitat of the endangered Carpentarian Grasswren (Amytornis dorotheae): The importance of spatio-temporal habitat availability in a fire prone landscape

Species distribution modelling (SDM), a tool increasingly adopted to quantify geographic range size, often predicts species’ distributions as static. However, habitat availability may exhibit spatial and temporal variation when dynamic processes, such as fire, determine suitability. Static SDM approaches may not satisfactorily represent this dynamic process. We investigated the potential use of SDM to quantify dynamic habitat availability by applying the MaxEnt SDM technique to model the habitat of the Carpentarian Grasswren (Amytornis dorotheae), an endangered Australian passerine dependent on long unburnt vegetation in a fire prone system. By adjusting a typical SDM approach to incorporate the dynamic nature of fire, we modelled the spatio-temporal variation of suitable habitat over 12 years and compared it to a static modelling approach. Incorporating fire as a dynamic process increased the importance of the fire variable to models (from 35% permutation importance) and improved model performance, as evaluated by the AUC using cross-validation. Our dynamic model revealed sizeable temporal variation in the area and spatial arrangement of suitable habitat that was not apparent in the static model. This result may partly solve the mystery of why the species occurs as widely separated populations despite the presence of seemingly suitable intervening habitat. In areas where the species is no longer found, habitat availability was less consistent due to frequent fire, and fire refugia was more limited and isolated, when compared to sites with recent records. These results demonstrate that, when compared to a static approach, a dynamic SDM approach can lead to improved understanding of dynamic ecological processes, and their impact on a species

Observational evidence confirms modelling of the long-term integrity of CO2-reservoir caprocks

Storage of anthropogenic CO2 in geological formations relies on a caprock as the primary seal preventing buoyant super-critical CO2 escaping. Although natural CO2 reservoirs demonstrate that CO2 may be stored safely for millions of years, uncertainty remains in predicting how caprocks will react with CO2-bearing brines. This uncertainty poses a significant challenge to the risk assessment of geological carbon storage. Here we describe mineral reaction fronts in a CO2 reservoir-caprock system exposed to CO2 over a timescale comparable with that needed for geological carbon storage. The propagation of the reaction front is retarded by redox-sensitive mineral dissolution reactions and carbonate precipitation, which reduces its penetration into the caprock to ∼7 cm in ∼105 years. This distance is an order-of-magnitude smaller than previous predictions. The results attest to the significance of transport-limited reactions to the long-term integrity of sealing behaviour in caprocks exposed to CO2.Funding was provided by NERC to the CRIUS consortium (NE/F004699/1), Shell Global Solutions, for GR as part of the Center for Nanoscale Controls on Geologic CO₂ (NCGC), an Energy Frontier Research Center funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Basic Energy Sciences (BES), under Award # DE-AC02-05CH11231, and DECC, which provided a CCS Innovation grant for completion of this work

Dengue in Madeira Island

This is a preprint of a paper whose final and definite form will be published in the volume Mathematics of Planet Earth that initiates the book series CIM Series in Mathematical Sciences (CIM-MS) published by Springer. Submitted Oct/2013; Revised 16/July/2014 and 20/Sept/2014; Accepted 28/Sept/2014.Dengue is a vector-borne disease and 40% of world population is at risk. Dengue transcends international borders and can be found in tropical and subtropical regions around the world, predominantly in urban and semi-urban areas. A model for dengue disease transmission, composed by mutually-exclusive compartments representing the human and vector dynamics, is presented in this study. The data is from Madeira, a Portuguese island, where an unprecedented outbreak was detected on October 2012. The aim of this work is to simulate the repercussions of the control measures in the fight of the disease

Measurement of the p-pbar -> Wgamma + X cross section at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV and WWgamma anomalous coupling limits

The WWgamma triple gauge boson coupling parameters are studied using p-pbar -> l nu gamma + X (l = e,mu) events at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV. The data were collected with the DO detector from an integrated luminosity of 162 pb^{-1} delivered by the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. The cross section times branching fraction for p-pbar -> W(gamma) + X -> l nu gamma + X with E_T^{gamma} > 8 GeV and Delta R_{l gamma} > 0.7 is 14.8 +/- 1.6 (stat) +/- 1.0 (syst) +/- 1.0 (lum) pb. The one-dimensional 95% confidence level limits on anomalous couplings are -0.88 < Delta kappa_{gamma} < 0.96 and -0.20 < lambda_{gamma} < 0.20.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev. D Rapid Communication

Measurement of the ttbar Production Cross Section in ppbar Collisions at sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV using Kinematic Characteristics of Lepton + Jets Events

We present a measurement of the top quark pair ttbar production cross section in ppbar collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV using 230 pb**{-1} of data collected by the DO detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We select events with one charged lepton (electron or muon), large missing transverse energy, and at least four jets, and extract the ttbar content of the sample based on the kinematic characteristics of the events. For a top quark mass of 175 GeV, we measure sigma(ttbar) = 6.7 {+1.4-1.3} (stat) {+1.6- 1.1} (syst) +/-0.4 (lumi) pb, in good agreement with the standard model prediction.Comment: submitted to Phys.Rev.Let

Measurement of the ttbar Production Cross Section in ppbar Collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV using Lepton + Jets Events with Lifetime b-tagging

We present a measurement of the top quark pair ($t\bar{t}$) production cross section ($\sigma_{t\bar{t}}$) in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=1.96$ TeV using 230 pb$^{-1}$ of data collected by the D0 experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. We select events with one charged lepton (electron or muon), missing transverse energy, and jets in the final state. We employ lifetime-based b-jet identification techniques to further enhance the $t\bar{t}$ purity of the selected sample. For a top quark mass of 175 GeV, we measure $\sigma_{t\bar{t}}=8.6^{+1.6}_{-1.5}(stat.+syst.)\pm 0.6(lumi.)$ pb, in agreement with the standard model expectation.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables Submitted to Phys.Rev.Let

Search for W' bosons decaying to an electron and a neutrino with the D0 detector

This Letter describes the search for a new heavy charged gauge boson W' decaying into an electron and a neutrino. The data were collected with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron proton-antiproton Collider at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of about 1 inverse femtobarn. Lacking any significant excess in the data in comparison with known processes, an upper limit is set on the production cross section times branching fraction, and a W' boson with mass below 1.00 TeV can be excluded at the 95% C.L., assuming standard-model-like couplings to fermions. This result significantly improves upon previous limits, and is the most stringent to date.Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Measurement of the ratios of the Z/G* + >= n jet production cross sections to the total inclusive Z/G* cross section in ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV

We present a study of events with Z bosons and jets produced at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider in ppbar collisions at a center of mass energy of 1.96 TeV. The data sample consists of nearly 14,000 Z/G* -> e+e- candidates corresponding to the integrated luminosity of 0.4 fb-1 collected using the D0 detector. Ratios of the Z/G* + >= n jet cross sections to the total inclusive Z/G* cross section have been measured for n = 1 to 4 jet events. Our measurements are found to be in good agreement with a next-to-leading order QCD calculation and with a tree-level QCD prediction with parton shower simulation and hadronization.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, slightly modified, submitted to Phys. Lett.

Measurement of the Isolated Photon Cross Section in p-pbar Collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV

The cross section for the inclusive production of isolated photons has been measured in p anti-p collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider. The photons span transverse momenta 23 to 300 GeV and have pseudorapidity |eta|<0.9. The cross section is compared with the results from two next-to-leading order perturbative QCD calculations. The theoretical predictions agree with the measurement within uncertainties.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Phys.Lett.