No saturation in the accumulation of alien species worldwide

Although research on human-mediated exchanges of species has substantially intensified during the last centuries, we know surprisingly little about temporal dynamics of alien species accumulations across regions and taxa. Using a novel database of 45,813 first records of 16,926 established alien species, we show that the annual rate of first records worldwide has increased during the last 200 years, with 37% of all first records reported most recently (1970–2014). Inter-continental and inter-taxonomic variation can be largely attributed to the diaspora of European settlers in the nineteenth century and to the acceleration in trade in the twentieth century. For all taxonomic groups, the increase in numbers of alien species does not show any sign of saturation and most taxa even show increases in the rate of first records over time. This highlights that past efforts to mitigate invasions have not been effective enough to keep up with increasing globalization

Lacustrine diatom oxygen isotopes as palaeo precipitation proxy - Holocene environmental and snowmelt variations recorded at Lake Bolshoye Shchuchye, Polar Urals, Russia

The diatom oxygen isotope composition (δ18Odiatom) from lacustrine sediments helps tracing the hydrological and climate dynamics in individual lake catchments, and is generally linked to changes in temperature and δ18Olake. Lake Bolshoye Shchuchye (67°53′N; 66°19′ E; 186 m a.s.l) is the largest and deepest freshwater reservoir in the Polar Urals, Arctic Russia. The diatom oxygen isotope interpretation is supported by modern (isotope) hydrology, local bioindicators such as chironomids, isotope mass-balance modelling and a digital elevation model of the catchment. The Bolshoye Shchuchye δ18Odiatom record generally follows a decrease in summer insolation and the northern hemisphere (NH) temperature history. However, it displays exceptional, short-term variations exceeding 5‰, especially in Mid and Late Holocene. This centennial-scale variability occurs roughly contemporaneously with and similar in frequency to Holocene NH glacier advances. However, larger Holocene glacier advances in the Lake Bolshoye Shchuchye catchment are unknown and have not left any significant imprint on the lake sediment record. As Lake Bolshoye Shchuchye is deep and voluminous, about 30–50% of its volume needs to be exchanged with isotopically different water within decades to account for these shifts in the δ18Odiatom record. A plausible source of water with light isotope composition inflow is snow, known to be transported in surplus by snow redistribution from the windward to the leeward side of the Polar Urals. Here, we propose snow melt variability and associated influx changes being the dominant mechanism responsible for the observed short-term changes in the δ18Odiatom record. This is the first time such drastic, centennial-scale hydrological changes in a catchment have been identified in Holocene lacustrine diatom oxygen isotopes, which, for Lake Bolshoye Shchuchye, are interpreted as proxy for palaeo precipitation and, on millennial timescales, for summer temperatures

Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050

Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business-as-usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back-casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon-continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 +/- 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 +/- 197), Northern America (1,484 +/- 74) and Southern America (1,391 +/- 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species

Scientific and normative foundations for the valuation of alien-species impacts: thirteen core principles

Biological invasions cause many impacts that differ widely in how they are perceived. We argue that many conflicts in the valuation of the impacts of alien species are attributable to differences in the framing of the issue and implicit assumptions—such conflicts are often not acknowledged. We present 13 principles that can help guide valuation and therefore inform the management of alien species. Seven of these relate to the science domain, representing aspects of change caused by alien species that can be measured or otherwise assessed using scientific methods. The remaining six principles invoke values, risk perception, and environmental ethics, but also cognitive and motivational decision biases. We illustrate the consequences of insufficient appreciation of these principles. Finally, we provide guidance rooted in political agreements and environmental ethics for improving the consideration of the consequences of these principles and present appropriate tools for management decisions relating to alien species

Scientists\u27 Warning on Invasive Alien Species

Biological invasions are a global consequence of an increasingly connected world and the rise in human population size. The numbers of invasive alien species - the subset of alien species that spread widely in areas where they are not native, affecting the environment or human livelihoods - are increasing. Synergies with other global changes are exacerbating current invasions and facilitating new ones, thereby escalating the extent and impacts of invaders. Invasions have complex and often immense long-term direct and indirect impacts. In many cases, such impacts become apparent or problematic only when invaders are well established and have large ranges. Invasive alien species break down biogeographic realms, affect native species richness and abundance, increase the risk of native species extinction, affect the genetic composition of native populations, change native animal behaviour, alter phylogenetic diversity across communities, and modify trophic networks. Many invasive alien species also change ecosystem functioning and the delivery of ecosystem services by altering nutrient and contaminant cycling, hydrology, habitat structure, and disturbance regimes. These biodiversity and ecosystem impacts are accelerating and will increase further in the future. Scientific evidence has identified policy strategies to reduce future invasions, but these strategies are often insufficiently implemented. For some nations, notably Australia and New Zealand, biosecurity has become a national priority. There have been long-term successes, such as eradication of rats and cats on increasingly large islands and biological control of weeds across continental areas. However, in many countries, invasions receive little attention. Improved international cooperation is crucial to reduce the impacts of invasive alien species on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human livelihoods. Countries can strengthen their biosecurity regulations to implement and enforce more effective management strategies that should also address other global changes that interact with invasions

Integrating invasive species policies across ornamental horticulture supply-chains to prevent plant invasions

1.Ornamental horticulture is the primary pathway for invasive alien plant introductions. We critically appraise published evidence on the effectiveness of four policy instruments that tackle invasions along the horticulture supply chain: pre-border import restrictions, post-border bans, industry codes of conduct and consumer education. 2.Effective pre-border interventions rely on rigorous risk assessment and high industry compliance. Post-border sales bans become progressively less effective when alien species become widespread in a region. 3.A lack of independent performance evaluation and of public disclosure, limits the uptake and effectiveness of voluntary codes of conduct and discourages shifts in consumer preference away from invasive alien species. 4.Policy implications. Closing the plant invasion pathway associated with ornamental horticulture requires government-industry agreements to fund effective pre- and post-border weed risk assessments that can be subsequently supported by widely adopted, as well as verifiable, industry codes of conduct. This will ensure producers and consumers make informed choices in the face of better targeted public education addressing plant invasions

A conceptual framework for range-expanding species that track human-induced environmental change

For many species, human-induced environmental changes are important indirect drivers of range expansion into new regions. We argue that it is important to distinguish the range dynamics of such species from those that occur without, or with less clear, involvement of human-induced environmental changes. We elucidate the salient features of the rapid increase in the number of species whose range dynamics are human induced, and review the relationships and differences to both natural range expansion and biological invasions. We discuss the consequences for science, policy and management in an era of rapid global change and highlight four key challenges relating to basic gaps in knowledge, and the transfer of scientific understanding to biodiversity management and policy. We conclude that range-expanding species responding to human-induced environmental change will become an essential feature for biodiversity management and science in the Anthropocene. Finally, we propose the term neonative for these taxa

Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert‐based assessment

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio‐economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid‐21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio‐economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best‐case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best‐case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post‐2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity

TelomereHunter – in silico estimation of telomere content and composition from cancer genomes

Background: Establishment of telomere maintenance mechanisms is a universal step in tumor development to achieve replicative immortality. These processes leave molecular footprints in cancer genomes in the form of altered telomere content and aberrations in telomere composition. To retrieve these telomere characteristics from high-throughput sequencing data the available computational approaches need to be extended and optimized to fully exploit the information provided by large scale cancer genome data sets. Results: We here present TelomereHunter, a software for the detailed characterization of telomere maintenance mechanism footprints in the genome. The tool is implemented for the analysis of large cancer genome cohorts and provides a variety of diagnostic diagrams as well as machine-readable output for subsequent analysis. A novel key feature is the extraction of singleton telomere variant repeats, which improves the identification and subclassification of the alternative lengthening of telomeres phenotype. We find that whole genome sequencing-derived telomere content estimates strongly correlate with telomere qPCR measurements (r = 0.94). For the first time, we determine the correlation of in silico telomere content quantification from whole genome sequencing and whole genome bisulfite sequencing data derived from the same tumor sample (r = 0.78). An analogous comparison of whole exome sequencing data and whole genome sequencing data measured slightly lower correlation (r = 0.79). However, this is considerably improved by normalization with matched controls (r = 0.91). Conclusions: TelomereHunter provides new functionality for the analysis of the footprints of telomere maintenance mechanisms in cancer genomes. Besides whole genome sequencing, whole exome sequencing and whole genome bisulfite sequencing are suited for in silico telomere content quantification, especially if matched control samples are available. The software runs under a GPL license and is available at https://www.dkfz.de/en/applied-bioinformatics/telomerehunter/telomerehunter.html