Limits of Earthquake Early Warning Accuracy and Best Alerting Strategy

We explore how accurate earthquake early warning (EEW) can be, given our limited ability to forecast expected shaking even if the earthquake source is known. Because of the strong variability of ground motion metrics, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV), we find that correct alerts (i.e., alerts that accurately estimate the ground motion will be above a predetermined damage threshold) are not expected to be the most common EEW outcome even when the earthquake magnitude and location are accurately determined. Infrequently, ground motion variability results in a user receiving a false alert because the ground motion turned out to be significantly smaller than the system expected. More commonly, users will experience missed alerts when the system does not issue an alert but the user experiences potentially damaging shaking. Despite these inherit limitations, EEW can significantly mitigate earthquake losses for false-alert-tolerant users who choose to receive alerts for expected ground motions much smaller than the level that could cause damage. Although this results in many false alerts (unnecessary alerts for earthquakes that do not produce damaging ground shaking), it minimizes the number of missed alerts and produces overall optimal performance

The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information

Evaluating the potential for the environmentally sustainable control of foot and mouth disease in Sub-Saharan Africa

Strategies to control transboundary diseases have in the past generated unintended negative consequences for both the environment and local human populations. Integrating perspectives from across disciplines, including livestock, veterinary and conservation sectors, is necessary for identifying disease control strategies that optimise environmental goods and services at the wildlife-livestock interface. Prompted by the recent development of a global strategy for the control and elimination of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), this paper seeks insight into the consequences of, and rational options for potential FMD control measures in relation to environmental, conservation and human poverty considerations in Africa. We suggest a more environmentally nuanced process of FMD control that safe-guards the integrity of wild populations and the ecosystem dynamics on which human livelihoods depend while simultaneously improving socio-economic conditions of rural people. In particular, we outline five major issues that need to be considered: 1) improved understanding of the different FMD viral strains and how they circulate between domestic and wildlife populations; 2) an appreciation for the economic value of wildlife for many African countries whose presence might preclude the country from ever achieving an FMD-free status; 3) exploring ways in which livestock production can be improved without compromising wildlife such as implementing commodity-based trading schemes; 4) introducing a participatory approach involving local farmers and the national veterinary services in the control of FMD; and 5) finally the possibility that transfrontier conservation might offer new hope of integrating decision-making at the wildlife-livestock interface

Limits of Earthquake Early Warning Accuracy and Best Alerting Strategy

We explore how accurate earthquake early warning (EEW) can be, given our limited ability to forecast expected shaking even if the earthquake source is known. Because of the strong variability of ground motion metrics, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV), we find that correct alerts (i.e., alerts that accurately estimate the ground motion will be above a predetermined damage threshold) are not expected to be the most common EEW outcome even when the earthquake magnitude and location are accurately determined. Infrequently, ground motion variability results in a user receiving a false alert because the ground motion turned out to be significantly smaller than the system expected. More commonly, users will experience missed alerts when the system does not issue an alert but the user experiences potentially damaging shaking. Despite these inherit limitations, EEW can significantly mitigate earthquake losses for false-alert-tolerant users who choose to receive alerts for expected ground motions much smaller than the level that could cause damage. Although this results in many false alerts (unnecessary alerts for earthquakes that do not produce damaging ground shaking), it minimizes the number of missed alerts and produces overall optimal performance

Cold Nuclear Matter Effects on J/psi Yields as a Function of Rapidity and Nuclear Geometry in Deuteron-Gold Collisions at sqrt(s_NN) = 200 GeV

We present measurements of J/psi yields in d+Au collisions at sqrt(s_NN) = 200 GeV recorded by the PHENIX experiment and compare with yields in p+p collisions at the same energy per nucleon-nucleon collision. The measurements cover a large kinematic range in J/psi rapidity (-2.2 < y < 2.4) with high statistical precision and are compared with two theoretical models: one with nuclear shadowing combined with final state breakup and one with coherent gluon saturation effects. To remove model dependent systematic uncertainties we also compare the data to a simple geometric model. We find that calculations where the nuclear modification is linear or exponential in the density weighted longitudinal thickness are difficult to reconcile with the forward rapidity data.Comment: 449 authors from 66 institutions, 6 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to Physical Review Letters. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

Transverse-Momentum Dependence of the J/psi Nuclear Modification in d+Au Collisions at sqrt(s_NN)=200 GeV

We present measured J/psi production rates in d+Au collisions at sqrt(s_NN) = 200 GeV over a broad range of transverse momentum (p_T=0-14 GeV/c) and rapidity (-2.2<y<2.2). We construct the nuclear-modification factor R_dAu for these kinematics and as a function of collision centrality (related to impact parameter for the R_dAu collision). We find that the modification is largest for collisions with small impact parameters, and observe a suppression (R_dAu<1) for p_T<4 GeV/c at positive rapidities. At negative rapidity we observe a suppression for p_T1) for p_T>2 GeV/c. The observed enhancement at negative rapidity has implications for the observed modification in heavy-ion collisions at high p_T.Comment: 384 authors, 24 pages, 19 figures, 13 tables. Submitted to Phys. Rev. C. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/phenix/WWW/info/data/ppg123_data.htm

Effect of the Growth Assessment Protocol on the DEtection of Small for GestatioNal age fetus: process evaluation from the DESiGN cluster randomised trial

BACKGROUND: Reducing the rate of stillbirth is an international priority. At least half of babies stillborn in high-income countries are small for gestational-age (SGA). The Growth Assessment Protocol (GAP), a complex antenatal intervention that aims to increase the rate of antenatal detection of SGA, was evaluated in the DESiGN type 2 hybrid effectiveness-implementation cluster randomised trial (n = 13 clusters). In this paper, we present the trial process evaluation. METHODS: A mixed-methods process evaluation was conducted. Clinical leads and frontline healthcare professionals were interviewed to inform understanding of context (implementing and standard care sites) and GAP implementation (implementing sites). Thematic analysis of interview text used the context and implementation of complex interventions framework to understand acceptability, feasibility, and the impact of context. A review of implementing cluster clinical guidelines, training and maternity records was conducted to assess fidelity, dose and reach. RESULTS: Interviews were conducted with 28 clinical leads and 27 frontline healthcare professionals across 11 sites. Staff at implementing sites generally found GAP to be acceptable but raised issues of feasibility, caused by conflicting demands on resource, and variable beliefs among clinical leaders regarding the intervention value. GAP was implemented with variable fidelity (concordance of local guidelines to GAP was high at two sites, moderate at two and low at one site), all sites achieved the target to train > 75% staff using face-to-face methods, but only one site trained > 75% staff using e-learning methods; a median of 84% (range 78–87%) of women were correctly risk stratified at the five implementing sites. Most sites achieved high scores for reach (median 94%, range 62–98% of women had a customised growth chart), but generally, low scores for dose (median 31%, range 8–53% of low-risk women and median 5%, range 0–17% of high-risk women) were monitored for SGA as recommended. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of GAP was generally acceptable to staff but with issues of feasibility that are likely to have contributed to variation in implementation strength. Leadership and resourcing are fundamental to effective implementation of clinical service changes, even when such changes are well aligned to policy mandated service-change priorities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Primary registry and trial identifying number: ISRCTN 67698474. Registered 02/11/16. https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN67698474

Tyrosine kinase signalling in breast cancer: Epidermal growth factor receptor and c-Src interactions in breast cancer

Both the non-receptor tyrosine kinase, c-Src, and members of the epidermal growth factor (EGF) receptor family are overexpressed in high percentages of human breast cancers. Because these molecules are plasma membrane-associated and involved in mitogenesis, it has been speculated that they function in concert with one another to promote breast cancer development and progression. Evidence to date supports a model wherein c-Src potentiates the survival, proliferation and tumorigenesis of EGF receptor family members, in part by associating with them. Phosphorylation of the EGF receptor by c-SRC is also critical for mitogenic signaling initiated by the EGF receptor itself, as well as by several G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs), a cytokine receptor, and the estrogen receptor. Thus, c-Src appears to have pleiotropic effects on cancer cells by modulating the action of multiple growth-promoting receptors

Integrating transcriptomics, metabolomics, and GWAS helps reveal molecular mechanisms for metabolite levels and disease risk

Transcriptomics data have been integrated with genome-wide association studies (GWASs) to help understand disease/trait molecular mechanisms. The utility of metabolomics, integrated with transcriptomics and disease GWASs, to understand molecular mechanisms for metabolite levels or diseases has not been thoroughly evaluated. We performed probabilistic transcriptome-wide association and locus-level colocalization analyses to integrate transcriptomics results for 49 tissues in 706 individuals from the GTEx project, metabolomics results for 1,391 plasma metabolites in 6,136 Finnish men from the METSIM study, and GWAS results for 2,861 disease traits in 260,405 Finnish individuals from the FinnGen study. We found that genetic variants that regulate metabolite levels were more likely to influence gene expression and disease risk compared to the ones that do not. Integrating transcriptomics with metabolomics results prioritized 397 genes for 521 metabolites, including 496 previously identified gene-metabolite pairs with strong functional connections and suggested 33.3% of such gene-metabolite pairs shared the same causal variants with genetic associations of gene expression. Integrating transcriptomics and metabolomics individually with FinnGen GWAS results identified 1,597 genes for 790 disease traits. Integrating transcriptomics and metabolomics jointly with FinnGen GWAS results helped pinpoint metabolic pathways from genes to diseases. We identified putative causal effects of UGT1A1/UGT1A4 expression on gallbladder disorders through regulating plasma (E,E)-bilirubin levels, of SLC22A5 expression on nasal polyps and plasma carnitine levels through distinct pathways, and of LIPC expression on age-related macular degeneration through glycerophospholipid metabolic pathways. Our study highlights the power of integrating multiple sets of molecular traits and GWAS results to deepen understanding of disease pathophysiology.Peer reviewe

Comparative Genomic Analysis of Human Fungal Pathogens Causing Paracoccidioidomycosis

Paracoccidioides is a fungal pathogen and the cause of paracoccidioidomycosis, a health-threatening human systemic mycosis endemic to Latin America. Infection by Paracoccidioides, a dimorphic fungus in the order Onygenales, is coupled with a thermally regulated transition from a soil-dwelling filamentous form to a yeast-like pathogenic form. To better understand the genetic basis of growth and pathogenicity in Paracoccidioides, we sequenced the genomes of two strains of Paracoccidioides brasiliensis (Pb03 and Pb18) and one strain of Paracoccidioides lutzii (Pb01). These genomes range in size from 29.1 Mb to 32.9 Mb and encode 7,610 to 8,130 genes. To enable genetic studies, we mapped 94% of the P. brasiliensis Pb18 assembly onto five chromosomes. We characterized gene family content across Onygenales and related fungi, and within Paracoccidioides we found expansions of the fungal-specific kinase family FunK1. Additionally, the Onygenales have lost many genes involved in carbohydrate metabolism and fewer genes involved in protein metabolism, resulting in a higher ratio of proteases to carbohydrate active enzymes in the Onygenales than their relatives. To determine if gene content correlated with growth on different substrates, we screened the non-pathogenic onygenale Uncinocarpus reesii, which has orthologs for 91% of Paracoccidioides metabolic genes, for growth on 190 carbon sources. U. reesii showed growth on a limited range of carbohydrates, primarily basic plant sugars and cell wall components; this suggests that Onygenales, including dimorphic fungi, can degrade cellulosic plant material in the soil. In addition, U. reesii grew on gelatin and a wide range of dipeptides and amino acids, indicating a preference for proteinaceous growth substrates over carbohydrates, which may enable these fungi to also degrade animal biomass. These capabilities for degrading plant and animal substrates suggest a duality in lifestyle that could enable pathogenic species of Onygenales to transfer from soil to animal hosts.National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (U.S.)National Institutes of Health. Department of Health and Human Services (contract HHSN266200400001C)National Institutes of Health. Department of Health and Human Services(contract HHSN2722009000018C)Brazil. National Council for Scientific and Technological Developmen