Dataset for the Incorporation of Climate Change into a Multiple Stressor Risk Assessment for the Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) Population in the Yakima River, Washington USA

Data files available below This data set is in support of Landis et al (in press 2024). A key question in understanding the implications of climate change is how to integrate ecological risk assessments that focus on contaminants with the environmental alterations from climate projections. This article summarizes the results of integrating selected direct and indirect effects of climate change into an existing Bayesian network previously used for ecological risk assessment. The existing Bayesian network Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM) integrated the effects of organophosphate pesticides concentrations, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen levels on the Chinook salmon population in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA, with the endpoint being no net loss to the population described by a three patch metapopulation age structured model. Climate change-induced changes in water quality parameters (temperature and dissolved oxygen levels) were incorporated into the model based on projected climatic conditions in the 2050s and 2080s. Pesticide concentrations in the original model were modified assuming different bounding scenarios of pest control strategies in the future, as climate change may alter pest numbers and species and thus the required emission of pesticides. Our results suggest that future direct and indirect changes to the Yakima River Basin result in a high probability (62%) that the salmon population will drop below the management goal of no net loss. The key driver in salmon population risk was found to be increases in temperature levels, with pesticide concentrations playing little to no role, as indicated by the sensitivity analysis. However, indirect effects to community structure and dynamics, such as changes in the food web, were not considered. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of incorporating the direct effects of climate change and its indirect effects on chemical emissions into an integrated Bayesian network relative risk framework. It also highlights the value of using Bayesian networks for identifying key drivers of ecological risk and elucidating possible mitigation measures to avoid unacceptable changes in risk. Future research needs are also described for incorporating climate change projections into exposure-driven ecological risk assessments. The Netica file can be opened and read with the free download version of Netica available at https://www.norsys.com/netica.html. The structure of the model and the notes for each node and the conditional probability tables can then be accessed. A licensed version of Netica can run and modify the file

an ISES Europe statement

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Ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030: Time to reset targets for 2025.

Paul De Lay and co-authors introduce a Collection on the design of targets for ending the AIDS epidemic

Complete genome sequence of Thermocrinis albus type strain (HI 11/12T)

Thermocrinis albus Eder and Huber 2002 is one of three species in the genus Thermocrinis in the family Aquificaceae. Members of this family have become of significant interest because of their involvement in global biogeochemical cycles in high-temperature ecosystems. This interest had already spurred several genome sequencing projects for members of the family. We here report the first completed genome sequence a member of the genus Thermocrinis and the first type strain genome from a member of the family Aquificaceae. The 1,500,577 bp long genome with its 1,603 protein-coding and 47 RNA genes is part of the Genomic Encyclopedia of Bacteria and Archaea project

ECORISK2050: An Innovative Training Network for predicting the effects of global change on the emission, fate, effects, and risks of chemicals in aquatic ecosystems

By 2050, the global population is predicted to reach nine billion, with almost three quarters living in cities. The road to 2050 will be marked by changes in land use, climate, and the management of water and food across the world. These global changes (GCs) will likely affect the emissions, transport, and fate of chemicals, and thus the exposure of the natural environment to chemicals. ECORISK2050 is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network that brings together an interdisciplinary consortium of academic, industry and governmental partners to deliver a new generation of scientists, with the skills required to study and manage the effects of GCs on chemical risks to the aquatic environment. The research and training goals are to: (1) assess how inputs and behaviour of chemicals from agriculture and urban environments are affected by different environmental conditions, and how different GC scenarios will drive changes in chemical risks to human and ecosystem health; (2) identify short-to-medium term adaptation and mitigation strategies, to abate unacceptable increases to risks, and (3) develop tools for use by industry and policymakers for the assessment and management of the impacts of GC-related drivers on chemical risks. This project will deliver the next generation of scientists, consultants, and industry and governmental decision-makers who have the knowledge and skillsets required to address the changing pressures associated with chemicals emitted by agricultural and urban activities, on aquatic systems on the path to 2050 and beyond

Forecasting chemical exposure in a changing world

Exposure to anthropogenic chemicals in natural and built environments is a threat to humans and other species. Now and through the 21st Century, the world will experience a large number of global changes, including anthropogenic climate change, shifts in demographics, agricultural expansion, socioeconomic development, and an increasing number and volume of chemicals on the market. All of these forcings have potentially important ramifications for how humans and other species are exposed to chemicals. A better understanding of global change forcings and their impacts on chemical exposures could help identify local, regional, and international chemical management techniques that could help avert harmful changes in exposure in the coming decades. Overall, this thesis aims to understand how exposure to chemicals may change in the future against the backdrop of rapidly changing natural and built environments. Five studies have been conducted in pursuit of this aim, including a literature review, two exposure modelling studies, and the development of an industrial chemical spill risk screening tool for sewage treatment plants. The current lack of knowledge around chemical emission rates is a key information gap for the ability to forecast how global change forcings might change the emissions of chemicals in agricultural environments, especially through the use of wastewater, biosolids, and veterinary pharmaceuticals. Consensus, high-throughput exposure modelling in the context of changing climate, indoor microenvironments, and dietary patterns showed changes in intake fraction up to a factor of 2, driven most notably by changing precipitation patterns and human diet. Global-scale modelling of chemical exposure with shifting socioeconomic and dietary patterns showed that socioeconomic development may lead to a larger fraction of global emissions occurring in rapidly industrialising regions with high population density (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa and India) leading to a larger fraction of the global burden of chemical exposure being borne by these historically low chemical-emitting regions. In the context of rapid urbanization, the upstream chemical risk assessment tool we developed for sewage treatment plants showed, in a case study in Sweden, that fewer than 1% of chemicals posed a risk to plant operations, but the risk from roughly 40% of chemicals could not be quantified due to lack of available toxicity data. Overall, this thesis shows that the use of numerical modelling and data analysis can elucidate key factors that determine exposure of humans and other species to chemicals in a rapidly changing environment. Where and how much chemical is emitted in the future, and what humans will be eating, are key factors determining population-level exposure to chemicals that should be considered in future decision making. Better information reporting for chemical emissions in agricultural environments and chemical toxicity towards sewage treatment plants are key data gaps that need to be closed to improve prospective exposure assessment. To help facilitate more effective chemical management at the international level, this thesis also presents an initial harmonized list of key terms used within exposure science, as robust and effective communication is urgently needed to solve the global problem of chemical pollution and exposure in a rapidly changing environment

Forecasting chemical exposure in a changing world

Exposure to anthropogenic chemicals in natural and built environments is a threat to humans and other species. Now and through the 21st Century, the world will experience a large number of global changes, including anthropogenic climate change, shifts in demographics, agricultural expansion, socioeconomic development, and an increasing number and volume of chemicals on the market. All of these forcings have potentially important ramifications for how humans and other species are exposed to chemicals. A better understanding of global change forcings and their impacts on chemical exposures could help identify local, regional, and international chemical management techniques that could help avert harmful changes in exposure in the coming decades. Overall, this thesis aims to understand how exposure to chemicals may change in the future against the backdrop of rapidly changing natural and built environments. Five studies have been conducted in pursuit of this aim, including a literature review, two exposure modelling studies, and the development of an industrial chemical spill risk screening tool for sewage treatment plants. The current lack of knowledge around chemical emission rates is a key information gap for the ability to forecast how global change forcings might change the emissions of chemicals in agricultural environments, especially through the use of wastewater, biosolids, and veterinary pharmaceuticals. Consensus, high-throughput exposure modelling in the context of changing climate, indoor microenvironments, and dietary patterns showed changes in intake fraction up to a factor of 2, driven most notably by changing precipitation patterns and human diet. Global-scale modelling of chemical exposure with shifting socioeconomic and dietary patterns showed that socioeconomic development may lead to a larger fraction of global emissions occurring in rapidly industrialising regions with high population density (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa and India) leading to a larger fraction of the global burden of chemical exposure being borne by these historically low chemical-emitting regions. In the context of rapid urbanization, the upstream chemical risk assessment tool we developed for sewage treatment plants showed, in a case study in Sweden, that fewer than 1% of chemicals posed a risk to plant operations, but the risk from roughly 40% of chemicals could not be quantified due to lack of available toxicity data. Overall, this thesis shows that the use of numerical modelling and data analysis can elucidate key factors that determine exposure of humans and other species to chemicals in a rapidly changing environment. Where and how much chemical is emitted in the future, and what humans will be eating, are key factors determining population-level exposure to chemicals that should be considered in future decision making. Better information reporting for chemical emissions in agricultural environments and chemical toxicity towards sewage treatment plants are key data gaps that need to be closed to improve prospective exposure assessment. To help facilitate more effective chemical management at the international level, this thesis also presents an initial harmonized list of key terms used within exposure science, as robust and effective communication is urgently needed to solve the global problem of chemical pollution and exposure in a rapidly changing environment

High Relative Humidity as a Trigger for Widespread Release of Ice Nuclei

<div><p>Copyright 2014 American Association for Aerosol Research</p></div

Enabling forecasts of environmental exposure to chemicals in European agriculture under global change

European agricultural development in the 21st century will be affected by a host of global changes, including climate change, changes in agricultural technologies and practices, and a shift towards a circular economy. The type and quantity of chemicals used, emitted, and cycled through agricultural systems in Europe will change, driven by shifts in the use patterns of pesticides, veterinary pharmaceuticals, reclaimed wastewater used for irrigation, and biosolids. Climate change will also impact the chemical persistence, fate, and transport processes that dictate environmental exposure. Here, we review the literature to identify research that will enable scenario-based forecasting of environmental exposures to organic chemicals in European agriculture under global change. Enabling exposure forecasts requires understanding current and possible future 1.) emissions, 2.) persistence and transformation, and 3.) fate and transport of agricultural chemicals. We discuss current knowledge in these three areas, the impact global change drivers may have on them, and we identify knowledge and data gaps that must be overcome to enable predictive scenario-based forecasts of environmental exposure under global change. Key research gaps identified are: improved understanding of relationships between global change and chemical emissions in agricultural settings; better understanding of environment-microbe interactions in the context of chemical degradation under future conditions; and better methods for downscaling climate change-driven intense precipitation events for chemical fate and transport modelling. We introduce a set of narrative Agricultural Chemical Exposure (ACE) scenarios - augmenting the IPCC's Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) - as a framework for forecasting chemical exposure in European agriculture. The proposed ACE scenarios cover a plausible range of optimistic to pessimistic 21st century development pathways. Filling the knowledge and data gaps identified within this study and using the ACE scenario approach for chemical exposure forecasting will support stakeholder planning and regulatory intervention strategies to ensure European agricultural practices develop in a sustainable manner