Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina)

Intertwined ocean and climate: implications for international climate negotiations

The atmosphere and ocean are two components of the Earth system that are essential for life, yet humankind is altering both. Contemporary climate change is now a well-identified problem: anthropogenic causes, disturbance in extreme events patterns, gradual environmental changes, widespread impacts on life and natural resources, and multiple threats to human societies all around the world. But part of the problem remains largely unknown outside the scientific community: significant changes are also occurring in the ocean, threatening life and its sustainability on Earth. This Policy Brief explains the significance of these changes in the ocean. It is based on a scientific paper recently published in Science (Gattuso et al., 2015), which synthesizes recent and future changes to the ocean and its ecosystems, as well as to the goods and services they provide to humans. Two contrasting CO2 emission scenarios are considered: the high emissions scenario (also known as “business-as-usual” and as the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, RCP8.5) and a stringent emissions scenario (RCP2.6) consistent with the Copenhagen Accord1 of keeping mean global temperature increase below 2°C in 2100

Thermal niche evolution and geographical range expansion in a species complex of western Mediterranean diving beetles

[Background] Species thermal requirements are one of the principal determinants of their ecology and biogeography, although our understanding of the interplay between these factors is limited by the paucity of integrative empirical studies. Here we use empirically collected thermal tolerance data in combination with molecular phylogenetics/phylogeography and ecological niche modelling to study the evolution of a clade of three western Mediterranean diving beetles, the Agabus brunneus complex.[Results] The preferred mitochondrial DNA topology recovered A. ramblae (North Africa, east Iberia and Balearic islands) as paraphyletic, with A. brunneus (widespread in the southwestern Mediterranean) and A. rufulus (Corsica and Sardinia) nested within it, with an estimated origin between 0.60-0.25 Ma. All three species were, however, recovered as monophyletic using nuclear DNA markers. A Bayesian skyline plot suggested demographic expansion in the clade at the onset of the last glacial cycle. The species thermal tolerances differ significantly, with A. brunneus able to tolerate lower temperatures than the other taxa. The climatic niche of the three species also differs, with A. ramblae occupying more arid and seasonal areas, with a higher minimum temperature in the coldest month. The estimated potential distribution for both A. brunneus and A. ramblae was most restricted in the last interglacial, becoming increasingly wider through the last glacial and the Holocene.[Conclusions] The A. brunneus complex diversified in the late Pleistocene, most likely in south Iberia after colonization from Morocco. Insular forms did not differentiate substantially in morphology or ecology, but A. brunneus evolved a wider tolerance to cold, which appeared to have facilitated its geographic expansion. Both A. brunneus and A. ramblae expanded their ranges during the last glacial, although they have not occupied areas beyond their LGM potential distribution except for isolated populations of A. brunneus in France and England. On the islands and possibly Tunisia secondary contact between A. brunneus and A. ramblae or A. rufulus has resulted in introgression. Our work highlights the complex dynamics of speciation and range expansions within southern areas during the last glacial cycle, and points to the often neglected role of North Africa as a source of European biodiversity.This work was supported by an FPI grant to AH-G and projects CGL2007-61665 and CGL2010-15755 from the Spanish government to IR. We acknowledge support of the publication fee by the CSIC Open Access Publication Support Initiative through its Unit of Information Resources for Research (URICI).Peer reviewe

Climate impact on Italian fisheries (Mediterranean Sea)

Global warming is increasingly affecting marine ecosystems and ecological services they provide. One of the major consequences is a shift in species geographical distribution, which may affect resources availability to fisheries. We computed the mean temperature of the catch (MTC) for Italian catches from 1972 to 2012 to test if an increase of warmer-water species against colder-water ones was observed. We further analysed the relationship among MTC, landings, fishing effort and climatic factors through a Linear Mixed Models approach. Global MTC increased at a rate of 0.12 _C per decade. Though, by considering the influence of sea surface temperature (SST), a strongest increase (0.31 _C) was estimated in southernmost areas, while in the northernmost basin (Northern Adriatic Sea) a decrease of 0.14 _C was observed. SST resulted the most relevant driver, and the relationship between MTC and SST showed a high spatial variability both in terms of strength and sign, being positively stronger in southernmost areas while negative in the northernmost basin. The result is probably underestimated since several psychrophilous and thermophilous species were not included in the analysis. However, it seems that a change towards warmer-water species has already occurred in Italian marine ecosystems. Conversely, total landings temporal dynamics seem mostly driven by changes in fishing effort rather than by MTC and climatic factors. Consequently, fishery management strategies need to focalize primarily on fishing effort reduction, in order to reduce the pressure on the stocks while increasing their resilience to other stressors, among which global warmingGlobal warming is increasingly affecting marine ecosystems and ecological services they provide. One of the major consequences is a shift in species geographical distribution, which may affect resources availability to fisheries. We computed the mean temperature of the catch (MTC) for Italian catches from 1972 to 2012 to test if an increase of warmer-water species against colder-water ones was observed. We further analysed the relationship among MTC, landings, fishing effort and climatic factors through a Linear Mixed Models approach. Global MTC increased at a rate of 0.12 A degrees C per decade. Though, by considering the influence of sea surface temperature (SST), a strongest increase (0.31 A degrees C) was estimated in southernmost areas, while in the northernmost basin (Northern Adriatic Sea) a decrease of 0.14 A degrees C was observed. SST resulted the most relevant driver, and the relationship between MTC and SST showed a high spatial variability both in terms of strength and sign, being positively stronger in southernmost areas while negative in the northernmost basin. The result is probably underestimated since several psychrophilous and thermophilous species were not included in the analysis. However, it seems that a change towards warmer-water species has already occurred in Italian marine ecosystems. Conversely, total landings temporal dynamics seem mostly driven by changes in fishing effort rather than by MTC and climatic factors. Consequently, fishery management strategies need to focalize primarily on fishing effort reduction, in order to reduce the pressure on the stocks while increasing their resilience to other stressors, among which global warming

Man and the Last Great Wilderness: Human Impact on the Deep Sea

The deep sea, the largest ecosystem on Earth and one of the least studied, harbours high biodiversity and provides a wealth of resources. Although humans have used the oceans for millennia, technological developments now allow exploitation of fisheries resources, hydrocarbons and minerals below 2000 m depth. The remoteness of the deep seafloor has promoted the disposal of residues and litter. Ocean acidification and climate change now bring a new dimension of global effects. Thus the challenges facing the deep sea are large and accelerating, providing a new imperative for the science community, industry and national and international organizations to work together to develop successful exploitation management and conservation of the deep-sea ecosystem. This paper provides scientific expert judgement and a semi-quantitative analysis of past, present and future impacts of human-related activities on global deep-sea habitats within three categories: disposal, exploitation and climate change. The analysis is the result of a Census of Marine Life – SYNDEEP workshop (September 2008). A detailed review of known impacts and their effects is provided. The analysis shows how, in recent decades, the most significant anthropogenic activities that affect the deep sea have evolved from mainly disposal (past) to exploitation (present). We predict that from now and into the future, increases in atmospheric CO2 and facets and consequences of climate change will have the most impact on deep-sea habitats and their fauna. Synergies between different anthropogenic pressures and associated effects are discussed, indicating that most synergies are related to increased atmospheric CO2 and climate change effects. We identify deep-sea ecosystems we believe are at higher risk from human impacts in the near future: benthic communities on sedimentary upper slopes, cold-water corals, canyon benthic communities and seamount pelagic and benthic communities. We finalise this review with a short discussion on protection and management methods

Effects of temperature in juvenile seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax L.) biomarker responses and behaviour: implications for environmental monitoring

The effects of temperature on European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax L.) juveniles were investigated using a 30-day bioassay carried out at 18 and 25 °C in laboratory conditions. A multiparameter approach was applied including fish swimming velocity and several biochemical parameters involved in important physiological functions. Fish exposed for four weeks to 25 °C showed a decreased swimming capacity, concomitant with increased oxidative stress (increased catalase and glutathione peroxidase activities) and damage (increased lipid peroxidation levels), increased activity of an enzyme involved in energy production through the aerobic pathway (isocitrate dehydrogenase) and increased activities of brain and muscle cholinesterases (neurotransmission) compared to fish kept at 18 °C. Globally, these findings indicate that basic functions, essential for juvenile seabass surviving and well performing in the wild, such as predation, predator avoidance, neurofunction and ability to face chemical stress may be compromised with increasing water temperature. This may be of particular concern if D. labrax recruitment phase in northwest European estuaries and coastal areas happens gradually inmore warm environments as a consequence of global warming. Considering that the selected endpoints are generally applied in monitoring studies with different species, these findings also highlight the need of more research, including interdisciplinary and multiparameter approaches, on the impacts of temperature on marine species, and stress the importance of considering scenarios of temperature increase in environmental monitoring and in marine ecological risk assessment