Bayesian Methods for Exoplanet Science

Exoplanet research is carried out at the limits of the capabilities of current telescopes and instruments. The studied signals are weak, and often embedded in complex systematics from instrumental, telluric, and astrophysical sources. Combining repeated observations of periodic events, simultaneous observations with multiple telescopes, different observation techniques, and existing information from theory and prior research can help to disentangle the systematics from the planetary signals, and offers synergistic advantages over analysing observations separately. Bayesian inference provides a self-consistent statistical framework that addresses both the necessity for complex systematics models, and the need to combine prior information and heterogeneous observations. This chapter offers a brief introduction to Bayesian inference in the context of exoplanet research, with focus on time series analysis, and finishes with an overview of a set of freely available programming libraries.Comment: Invited revie

Genes Suggest Ancestral Colour Polymorphisms Are Shared across Morphologically Cryptic Species in Arctic Bumblebees

email Suzanne orcd idCopyright: © 2015 Williams et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

A systems approach to policy evaluation

There is growing interest in evaluating policy implementation in ways that grapple with the complexity of the process. This article offers an example of using systems methodology to explore how the child protection policy in child contact centres has functioned in practice. Rather than just asking the traditional evaluation question “is it working?” this study sought to understand how the policy was working and how it was interpreted as it interacted with other systems, producing conflicts, local variation and emergent effects. It illustrates how the systems concepts of ‘emergence’, ‘local rationality’, ‘socio-technical systems’ and ‘feedback for learning’ can contribute new knowledge and understanding to a complex policy evaluation problem

Variations in the Difference between Mean Sea Level measured either side of Cape Hatteras and Their Relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation

We consider the extent to which the difference in mean sea level (MSL) measured on the North American Atlantic coast either side of Cape Hatteras varies as a consequence of dynamical changes in the ocean caused by fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). From analysis of tide gauge data, we know that changes in MSL-difference and NAO index are correlated on decadal to century timescales enabling a scale factor of MSL-difference change per unit change in NAO index to be estimated. Changes in trend in the NAO index have been small during the past few centuries (when measured using windows of order 60–120 years). Therefore, if the same scale factor applies through this period of time, the corresponding changes in trend in MSL-difference for the past few centuries should also have been small. It is suggested thereby that the sea level records for recent centuries obtained from salt marshes (adjusted for long-term vertical land movements) should have essentially the same NAO-driven trends south and north of Cape Hatteras, only differing due to contributions from other processes such as changes in the Meridional Overturning Circulation or ‘geophysical fingerprints’. The salt marsh data evidently support this interpretation within their uncertainties for the past few centuries, and perhaps even for the past millennium. Recommendations are made on how greater insight might be obtained by acquiring more measurements and by improved modelling of the sea level response to wind along the shelf

The impact of ENSO on Southern African rainfall in CMIP5 ocean atmosphere coupled climate models

We study the ability of 24 ocean atmosphere global coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to reproduce the teleconnections between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern African rainfall in austral summer using historical forced simulations, with a focus on the atmospheric dynamic associated with El Niño. Overestimations of summer rainfall occur over Southern Africa in all CMIP5 models. Abnormal westward extensions of ENSO patterns are a common feature of all CMIP5 models, while the warming of the Indian Ocean that happens during El Niño is not correctly reproduced. This could impact the teleconnection between ENSO and Southern African rainfall which is represented with mixed success in CMIP5 models. Large-scale anomalies of suppressed deep-convection over the tropical maritime continent and enhanced convection from the central to eastern Pacific are correctly simulated. However, regional biases occur above Africa and the Indian Ocean, particularly in the position of the deep convection anomalies associated with El Niño, which can lead to the wrong sign in rainfall anomalies in the northwest part of South Africa. From the near-surface to mid-troposphere, CMIP5 models underestimate the observed anomalous pattern of pressure occurring over Southern Africa that leads to dry conditions during El Niño years

Carbohydrate, phenolic and antioxidant level in relation to chlorophyll a content in oilseed winter rape (Brassica napus L.) inoculated with Leptosphaeria maculans

Syftet med föreliggande studien var att undersöka om sjuksköterskors egna rökvanor påverkar attityden till tobakspreventivt arbete på sjukhuset, både till tobakspreventivt arbete med patienterna och attityden till rökfritt sjukhus. Studien är empirisk och utfördes genom kvalitativa intervjuer med sex sjuksköterskor på en vårdavdelning på ett sjukhus i södra Sverige. Data från intervjuerna analyserades och resulterade i sju olika teman: Preventiva rollen, Kunskap om prevention, Vem skall leda det preventiva arbetet, Rökkontroll, Utbildningsnivå och rökning, Sjuksköterskan, en förebild?, Vem ska hjälpa patienten vid rökstopp på sjukhuset?, Är det någon skillnad mellan icke rökande och rökande vad avser rökpreventionen?. Den preventiva rollen hamnade i fokus och skillnader fanns mellan rökande och icke rökande sjuksköterskor både vad gäller preventivt omvårdnasarbete och kontrollThe aim of the present study is to investigate whether nurses smoking habits influence their attitude to tobacco prevention in hospitals, both in their work with patients and regarding their attitude to hospital smoking bans. The following question was posed: is there a difference between smoking and non-smoking nurses in patient-care activities regarding smoking prevention and control? The study is qualitative, based on qualitative interviews with six nurses at a ward of a hospital in Sweden. Interview data were analyzed and eight themes emerged: the role in prevention work knowledge of prevention who is to lead prevention work smoking control smoking and education levels the nurse as a role model who is to help the patient give up smoking possible differences between nonsmoking and smoking nurses regarding smoking prevention. The role in prevention work turned out to be central. Smoking nurses had greater difficulties in connection with preventive work and control, due to their personal experience of how hard it can be to give up smoking habits

A review of the distribution of particulate trace elements in urban terrestrial environments and its application to considerations of risk

We review the evolution, state of the art and future lines of research on the sources, transport pathways, and sinks of particulate trace elements in urban terrestrial environments to include the atmosphere, soils, and street and indoor dusts. Such studies reveal reductions in the emissions of some elements of historical concern such as Pb, with interest consequently focusing on other toxic trace elements such as As, Cd, Hg, Zn, and Cu. While establishment of levels of these elements is important in assessing the potential impacts of human society on the urban environment, it is also necessary to apply this knowledge in conjunction with information on the toxicity of those trace elements and the degree of exposure of human receptors to an assessment of whether such contamination represents a real risk to the city’s inhabitants and therefore how this risk can be addressed

Early lineage restriction in temporally distinct populations of Mesp1 progenitors during mammalian heart development.

Cardiac development arises from two sources of mesoderm progenitors, the first heart field (FHF) and the second (SHF). Mesp1 has been proposed to mark the most primitive multipotent cardiac progenitors common for both heart fields. Here, using clonal analysis of the earliest prospective cardiovascular progenitors in a temporally controlled manner during early gastrulation, we found that Mesp1 progenitors consist of two temporally distinct pools of progenitors restricted to either the FHF or the SHF. FHF progenitors were unipotent, whereas SHF progenitors were either unipotent or bipotent. Microarray and single-cell PCR with reverse transcription analysis of Mesp1 progenitors revealed the existence of molecularly distinct populations of Mesp1 progenitors, consistent with their lineage and regional contribution. Together, these results provide evidence that heart development arises from distinct populations of unipotent and bipotent cardiac progenitors that independently express Mesp1 at different time points during their specification, revealing that the regional segregation and lineage restriction of cardiac progenitors occur very early during gastrulation.This is the author's accepted manuscript and will be under embargo until the 24th of February 2015. The final version is published by NPG in Nature Cell Biology here: http://www.nature.com/ncb/journal/v16/n9/full/ncb3024.html

Current and prospective pharmacological targets in relation to antimigraine action

Migraine is a recurrent incapacitating neurovascular disorder characterized by unilateral and throbbing headaches associated with photophobia, phonophobia, nausea, and vomiting. Current specific drugs used in the acute treatment of migraine interact with vascular receptors, a fact that has raised concerns about their cardiovascular safety. In the past, α-adrenoceptor agonists (ergotamine, dihydroergotamine, isometheptene) were used. The last two decades have witnessed the advent of 5-HT1B/1D receptor agonists (sumatriptan and second-generation triptans), which have a well-established efficacy in the acute treatment of migraine. Moreover, current prophylactic treatments of migraine include 5-HT2 receptor antagonists, Ca2+ channel blockers, and β-adrenoceptor antagonists. Despite the progress in migraine research and in view of its complex etiology, this disease still remains underdiagnosed, and available therapies are underused. In this review, we have discussed pharmacological targets in migraine, with special emphasis on compounds acting on 5-HT (5-HT1-7), adrenergic (α1, α2, and β), calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP 1 and CGRP2), adenosine (A1, A2, and A3), glutamate (NMDA, AMPA, kainate, and metabotropic), dopamine, endothelin, and female hormone (estrogen and progesterone) receptors. In addition, we have considered some other targets, including gamma-aminobutyric acid, angiotensin, bradykinin, histamine, and ionotropic receptors, in relation to antimigraine therapy. Finally, the cardiovascular safety of current and prospective antimigraine therapies is touched upon