41 research outputs found

    Can bias correction and statistical downscaling methods improve the skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts?

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    Statistical downscaling methods are popular post-processing tools which are widely used in many sectors to adapt the coarse-resolution biased outputs from global climate simulations to the regional-to-local scale typically required by users. They range from simple and pragmatic Bias Correction (BC) methods, which directly adjust the model outputs of interest (e.g. precipitation) according to the available local observations, to more complex Perfect Prognosis (PP) ones, which indirectly derive local predictions (e.g. precipitation) from appropriate upper-air large-scale model variables (predictors). Statistical downscaling methods have been extensively used and critically assessed in climate change applications; however, their advantages and limitations in seasonal forecasting are not well understood yet. In particular, a key problem in this context is whether they serve to improve the forecast quality/skill of raw model outputs beyond the adjustment of their systematic biases. In this paper we analyze this issue by applying two state-of-the-art BC and two PP methods to downscale precipitation from a multimodel seasonal hindcast in a challenging tropical region, the Philippines. To properly assess the potential added value beyond the reduction of model biases, we consider two validation scores which are not sensitive to changes in the mean (correlation and reliability categories). Our results show that, whereas BC methods maintain or worsen the skill of the raw model forecasts, PP methods can yield significant skill improvement (worsening) in cases for which the large-scale predictor variables considered are better (worse) predicted by the model than precipitation. For instance, PP methods are found to increase (decrease) model reliability in nearly 40% of the stations considered in boreal summer (autumn). Therefore, the choice of a convenient downscaling approach (either BC or PP) depends on the region and the season.This study was partially supported by the SPECS and EUPORIAS projects, funded by the European Commission through the Seventh Framework Programme for Research under grant agreements 308378 and 308291, respectively. JMG acknowledges partial support from the project MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R, MINECO/FEDER)

    J-PLUS: The javalambre photometric local universe survey

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    ABSTRACT: TheJavalambrePhotometric Local UniverseSurvey (J-PLUS )isanongoing 12-band photometricopticalsurvey, observingthousands of squaredegrees of theNorthernHemispherefromthededicated JAST/T80 telescope at the Observatorio Astrofísico de Javalambre (OAJ). The T80Cam is a camera with a field of view of 2 deg2 mountedon a telescopewith a diameter of 83 cm, and isequippedwith a uniquesystem of filtersspanningtheentireopticalrange (3500–10 000 Å). Thisfiltersystemis a combination of broad-, medium-, and narrow-band filters, optimallydesigned to extracttherest-framespectralfeatures (the 3700–4000 Å Balmer break region, Hδ, Ca H+K, the G band, and the Mg b and Ca triplets) that are key to characterizingstellartypes and delivering a low-resolutionphotospectrumforeach pixel of theobservedsky. With a typicaldepth of AB ∼21.25 mag per band, thisfilter set thusallowsforanunbiased and accuratecharacterization of thestellarpopulation in our Galaxy, itprovidesanunprecedented 2D photospectralinformationforall resolved galaxies in the local Universe, as well as accuratephoto-z estimates (at the δ z/(1 + z)∼0.005–0.03 precisionlevel) formoderatelybright (up to r ∼ 20 mag) extragalacticsources. Whilesomenarrow-band filters are designedforthestudy of particular emissionfeatures ([O II]/λ3727, Hα/λ6563) up to z < 0.017, theyalsoprovidewell-definedwindowsfortheanalysis of otheremissionlines at higherredshifts. As a result, J-PLUS has thepotential to contribute to a widerange of fields in Astrophysics, both in thenearbyUniverse (MilkyWaystructure, globular clusters, 2D IFU-likestudies, stellarpopulations of nearby and moderate-redshiftgalaxies, clusters of galaxies) and at highredshifts (emission-line galaxies at z ≈ 0.77, 2.2, and 4.4, quasi-stellarobjects, etc.). Withthispaper, wereleasethefirst∼1000 deg2 of J-PLUS data, containingabout 4.3 millionstars and 3.0 milliongalaxies at r <  21mag. With a goal of 8500 deg2 forthe total J-PLUS footprint, thesenumbers are expected to rise to about 35 millionstars and 24 milliongalaxiesbytheend of thesurvey.Funding for the J-PLUS Project has been provided by the Governments of Spain and Aragón through the Fondo de Inversiones de Teruel, the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO; under grants AYA2017-86274-P, AYA2016-77846-P, AYA2016-77237-C3-1-P, AYA2015-66211-C2-1-P, AYA2015-66211-C2-2, AYA2012-30789, AGAUR grant SGR-661/2017, and ICTS-2009-14), and European FEDER funding (FCDD10-4E-867, FCDD13-4E-2685

    VIII Encuentro de Docentes e Investigadores en Historia del Diseño, la Arquitectura y la Ciudad

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    Acta de congresoLa conmemoración de los cien años de la Reforma Universitaria de 1918 se presentó como una ocasión propicia para debatir el rol de la historia, la teoría y la crítica en la formación y en la práctica profesional de diseñadores, arquitectos y urbanistas. En ese marco el VIII Encuentro de Docentes e Investigadores en Historia del Diseño, la Arquitectura y la Ciudad constituyó un espacio de intercambio y reflexión cuya realización ha sido posible gracias a la colaboración entre Facultades de Arquitectura, Urbanismo y Diseño de la Universidad Nacional y la Facultad de Arquitectura de la Universidad Católica de Córdoba, contando además con la activa participación de mayoría de las Facultades, Centros e Institutos de Historia de la Arquitectura del país y la región. Orientado en su convocatoria tanto a docentes como a estudiantes de Arquitectura y Diseño Industrial de todos los niveles de la FAUD-UNC promovió el debate de ideas a partir de experiencias concretas en instancias tales como mesas temáticas de carácter interdisciplinario, que adoptaron la modalidad de presentación de ponencias, entre otras actividades. En el ámbito de VIII Encuentro, desarrollado en la sede Ciudad Universitaria de Córdoba, se desplegaron numerosas posiciones sobre la enseñanza, la investigación y la formación en historia, teoría y crítica del diseño, la arquitectura y la ciudad; sumándose el aporte realizado a través de sus respectivas conferencias de Ana Clarisa Agüero, Bibiana Cicutti, Fernando Aliata y Alberto Petrina. El conjunto de ponencias que se publican en este Repositorio de la UNC son el resultado de dos intensas jornadas de exposiciones, cuyos contenidos han posibilitado actualizar viejos dilemas y promover nuevos debates. El evento recibió el apoyo de las autoridades de la FAUD-UNC, en especial de la Secretaría de Investigación y de la Biblioteca de nuestra casa, como así también de la Facultad de Arquitectura de la UCC; va para todos ellos un especial agradecimiento

    Halogenated Organic Molecules of Rhodomelaceae Origin: Chemistry and Biology

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    EL PAPEL DE LA REPUTACIÓN, EL BOCA-OREJA, LA CONFIANZA Y LA INCERTIDUMBRE EN LA CONTRATACIÓN DE UN BANCO

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    ¿Qué factores influyen en los consumidores cuando tiene que elegir un banco con el que contratar en situaciones de información asimétrica? Es una situación en que la empresa normalmente posee más información que los consumidores, lo que les genera incertidumbre ante un posible comportamiento empresarial oportunista. Para reducirla, el consumidor puede recurrir, por un lado, a señales que envía el propio banco al mercado, como su reputación, y por otro lado, a la búsqueda de información más informal, la comunicación boca-oreja (WOM) positiva de conocidos para generar o aumentar su confianza y, a través de esta, desarrollar una intención de contratar con un banco y no con otros. Las relaciones entre esas variables se testaron con una muestra de 155 usuarios de banca cuando aún no habían trabajado con un determinado banco. Los resultados indican la importancia de la reputación del banco y la información positiva recibida de prescriptores para generar confianza, pero con diferencias en función del grado de incertidumbre ex ante percibida, que modera esas relaciones

    A Robust Open Framework Formed by Decavanadate Clusters and Copper(II) Complexes of Macrocyclic Polyamines: Permanent Microporosity and Catalytic Oxidation of Cycloalkanes

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    The first decavanadate-based microporous hybrid, namely, [Cu(cyclam)][{Cu(cyclam)}2(V10O28)]·10H2O (1, cyclam = 1,4,8,11-tetraazacyclotetradecane) was prepared by reaction of (VO3)− anions and {Cu(cyclam)}2+ complexes in NaCl (aq) at pH 4.6–4.7 and characterized by elemental analyses, thermogravimetry, and X-ray diffraction (powder, single-crystal) techniques. Compound 1 exhibits a POMOF-like supramolecular open-framework built of covalent decavanadate/metalorganic layers with square-like voids, the stacking of which is aided by interlamellar cementing complexes and generates water-filled channels with approximate cross sections of 10.4 × 8.8 Å2. The framework is robust enough to remain virtually unaltered upon thermal evacuation of all water molecules of hydration, as demonstrated through single-crystal X-ray diffraction studies on the anhydrous phase 1a. This permanent microporosity renders interesting functionality to 1, such as selective adsorption of CO2 over N2 and remarkable activity as heterogeneous catalyst toward the H2O2-based oxidation of the highly-stable, tricyclic alkane adamantane.This work was funded by Eusko Jaurlaritza/Gobierno Vasco (Grant No. IT477-10), MINECO (Grant No. MAT2013-48366-C2-2-P), and UPV/EHU (Grant No. UFI11/53). J.A.-M. thanks Generalitat Valenciana and FEDER (Grant No. PROMETEO2/2014/010), as well as MICINN and Plan E (Grant No. CTQ2012-31762) for financial support
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