Prognosis for patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: development and validation of a personalised prediction model

Summary Background Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a relentlessly progressive, fatal motor neuron disease with a variable natural history. There are no accurate models that predict the disease course and outcomes, which complicates risk assessment and counselling for individual patients, stratification of patients for trials, and timing of interventions. We therefore aimed to develop and validate a model for predicting a composite survival endpoint for individual patients with ALS. Methods We obtained data for patients from 14 specialised ALS centres (each one designated as a cohort) in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland, and the UK. All patients were diagnosed in the centres after excluding other diagnoses and classified according to revised El Escorial criteria. We assessed 16 patient characteristics as potential predictors of a composite survival outcome (time between onset of symptoms and non-invasive ventilation for more than 23 h per day, tracheostomy, or death) and applied backward elimination with bootstrapping in the largest population-based dataset for predictor selection. Data were gathered on the day of diagnosis or as soon as possible thereafter. Predictors that were selected in more than 70% of the bootstrap resamples were used to develop a multivariable Royston-Parmar model for predicting the composite survival outcome in individual patients. We assessed the generalisability of the model by estimating heterogeneity of predictive accuracy across external populations (ie, populations not used to develop the model) using internal–external cross-validation, and quantified the discrimination using the concordance (c) statistic (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve) and calibration using a calibration slope. Findings Data were collected between Jan 1, 1992, and Sept 22, 2016 (the largest data-set included data from 1936 patients). The median follow-up time was 97·5 months (IQR 52·9–168·5). Eight candidate predictors entered the prediction model: bulbar versus non-bulbar onset (univariable hazard ratio [HR] 1·71, 95% CI 1·63–1·79), age at onset (1·03, 1·03–1·03), definite versus probable or possible ALS (1·47, 1·39–1·55), diagnostic delay (0·52, 0·51–0·53), forced vital capacity (HR 0·99, 0·99–0·99), progression rate (6·33, 5·92–6·76), frontotemporal dementia (1·34, 1·20–1·50), and presence of a C9orf72 repeat expansion (1·45, 1·31–1·61), all p<0·0001. The c statistic for external predictive accuracy of the model was 0·78 (95% CI 0·77–0·80; 95% prediction interval [PI] 0·74–0·82) and the calibration slope was 1·01 (95% CI 0·95–1·07; 95% PI 0·83–1·18). The model was used to define five groups with distinct median predicted (SE) and observed (SE) times in months from symptom onset to the composite survival outcome: very short 17·7 (0·20), 16·5 (0·23); short 25·3 (0·06), 25·2 (0·35); intermediate 32·2 (0·09), 32·8 (0·46); long 43·7 (0·21), 44·6 (0·74); and very long 91·0 (1·84), 85·6 (1·96). Interpretation We have developed an externally validated model to predict survival without tracheostomy and non-invasive ventilation for more than 23 h per day in European patients with ALS. This model could be applied to individualised patient management, counselling, and future trial design, but to maximise the benefit and prevent harm it is intended to be used by medical doctors only. Funding Netherlands ALS Foundation

Neurofilament markers for ALS correlate with extent of upper and lower motor neuron disease

OBJECTIVE: To determine the diagnostic performance and prognostic value of phosphorylated neurofilament heavy chain (pNfH) and neurofilament light chain (NfL) in CSF as possible biomarkers for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) at the diagnostic phase. METHODS: We measured CSF pNfH and NfL concentrations in 220 patients with ALS, 316 neurologic disease controls (DC), and 50 genuine disease mimics (DM) to determine and assess the accuracy of the diagnostic cutoff value for pNfH and NfL and to correlate with other clinical parameters. RESULTS: pNfH was most specific for motor neuron disease (specificity 88.2% [confidence interval (CI) 83.0%-92.3%]). pNfH had the best performance to differentially diagnose patients with ALS from DM with a sensitivity of 90.7% (CI 84.9%-94.8%), a specificity of 88.0% (CI 75.7%-95.5%) and a likelihood ratio of 7.6 (CI 3.6-16.0) at a cutoff of 768 pg/mL. CSF pNfH and NfL levels were significantly lower in slow disease progressors, however, with a poor prognostic performance with respect to the disease progression rate. CSF pNfH and NfL levels increased significantly as function of the number of regions with both upper and lower motor involvement. CONCLUSIONS: In particular, CSF pNfH concentrations show an added value as diagnostic biomarkers for ALS, whereas the prognostic value of pNfH and NfL warrants further investigation. Both pNfH and NfL correlated with the extent of motor neuron degeneration. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class II evidence that elevated concentrations of CSF pNfH and NfL can accurately identify patients with ALS.status: publishe

The starting points of the research: regional introduction; 1.2 Residence times of water and dissolved contamination; 1.3 Impacts of potential flash floods from ephemeral and intermittent tributaries; 1.4 Limit the nutrient emissions from netcage aquaculture 4.6 Rethinking the controversial water diversion project (“transposição”)

INNOVATE was a comprehensive, collaborative, and binational research project. It ran from January 2012 through December 2016. Brazil and Brazil’s Northeast in particular suffered from a severe drought period from 2012 onwards. Management and governance of natural resources faced serious challenges related to access to water. Important long-term drivers that call for recurrent adaptation of actions are land use change, population growth, climate change, and conflicts from the multiple uses of water. The scientific project addressed this complex situation through research aimed at suggesting practices and pathways towards ecologically and socioeconomically sound management of land, water and biodiversity. The INNOVATE project had one focus on the entire watershed of the São Francisco River and another one on a portion of the watershed – the Itaparica Reservoir and the semi-arid area north of the artificial lake. Researchers with different backgrounds worked within their disciplines, in groups (interdisciplinary) and together with stakeholders (transdisciplinary). The Guidance Manual is a compilation of actor-relevant content extracted from the scientific research results. Most recommendations put forward can be adapted as principles and standards for reservoir and semi-arid regions elsewhere in the world

Safety and efficacy of rasagiline as an add-on therapy to riluzole in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a randomised, double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial

Background Rasagiline, a monoamine oxidase B inhibitor with neuroprotective potential in Parkinson's disease, has shown a disease-modifying effect in the SOD1-Gly93Ala low-expressing mouse model of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, both alone and in combination with riluzole. We sought to test whether or not rasagiline 1 mg/day can prolong survival in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis also receiving riluzole. Methods Patients with possible, probable, or definite amyotrophic lateral sclerosis were enrolled to our randomised, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, double-blind, phase 2 trial from 15 German network for motor neuron diseases (MND-NET) centres (university hospitals or clinics). Eligible patients were aged at least 18 years, had onset of progressive weakness within the 36 months before the study, had disease duration of more than 6 months and less than 3 years, and had a best-sitting slow vital capacity of at least 50%. After a 4-week screening period, eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either rasagiline (1 mg/day) or placebo in addition to riluzole (100 mg/day), after stratification for site of onset (bulbar or spinal) and study centre. Patients and all personnel assessing outcome parameters were masked to treatment allocation. Patients were followed up 2, 6, 12, and 18 months after randomisation. The primary endpoint was survival time, defined as the time to death or time to study cutoff date (ie, the last patient's last visit plus 14 days). Analyses of primary outcome and safety measures were done in all patients who received at least one dose of trial treatment (intention-to-treat population). The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01879241. Findings Between July 2, 2013, and Nov 11, 2014, 273 patients were screened for eligibility, and 252 patients were randomly assigned to receive rasagiline (n=127) or placebo (n=125). 126 patients taking rasagiline and 125 taking placebo were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. For the primary outcome, the survival probability at the end of the study was 0.43 (95% CI 0.25-0.59) in the rasagiline group (n=126) and 0.53 (0.43-0.62) in the placebo group (n=125). The estimated effect size (hazard ratio) was 0.91 (one-sided 97.5% CI -infinity to 1.34; p=0.31). Rasagiline was well tolerated, and most adverse events were due to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease progression rather than treatment; the most frequent of these were dysphagia (32 [25%] taking rasagiline vs 24 [19%] taking placebo) and respiratory failure (25 [20%] vs 31 [25%]). Frequency of adverse events were comparable between both groups. Interpretation Rasagiline was safe in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. There was no difference between groups in the primary outcome of survival, although post-hoc analysis suggested that rasagiline might modify disease progression in patients with an initial slope of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Functional Rating Scale Revised greater than 0.5 points per month at baseline. This should be confirmed in another clinical trial. Copyright (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Stroke Risk and Antithrombotic Treatment During Follow-up of Patients With Ischemic Stroke and Cortical Superficial Siderosis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES In patients with ischemic stroke (IS) or TIA and cortical superficial siderosis (cSS), there are few data regarding the risk of future cerebrovascular events and also about the benefits and safety of antithrombotic drugs for secondary prevention. We investigated the associations of cSS and stroke risk in patients with recent IS or TIA. METHODS We retrospectively analyzed the Microbleeds International Collaborative Network (MICON) database. We selected patients with IS or TIA from cohorts who had MRI-assessed cSS, available data on antithrombotic treatments, recurrent cerebrovascular events [Intracranial hemorrhage -ICrH-, IS, or any stroke (ICrH or IS)], and mortality. We calculated incidence rates (IR) and performed univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses. RESULTS Of 12.669 patients (mean age 70.4±12.3 years, 57.3% men), cSS was detected in 273 (2.2%) patients. During a mean follow-up of 24±17 months, IS was more frequent than ICrH in both cSS (IR 57.1 versus 14.6 per 1000 patient-years) and non-cSS groups (33.7 versus 6.3 per 1000 patient years). Compared to the non-CSS group, cSS was associated with any stroke on multivariable analysis [IR 83 versus 42 per 1000 patient-years, adjusted HR for cSS 1.62 (95%CI: 1.14-2.28; p=0.006)]. This association was not significant in subgroups of patients treated with antiplatelet drugs (n=6.554) or with anticoagulants (n=4.044). Patients with cSS who were treated with both antiplatelet drugs and anticoagulants (n=1.569) had a higher incidence of ICrH (IR 107.5 vs 4.9 per 1000 patient-years, adjusted HR 13.26; 95%CI: 2.90-60.63; p=0.001) and of any stroke (IR 198.8 vs 34.7 per 1000 patient-years, adjusted HR 5.03; 95%CI: 2.03-12.44; p<0.001) compared to the non-CSS group. DISCUSSION Patients with IS or TIA with cSS are at increased risk of stroke (ICrH or IS) during follow-up; the risk of IS exceeds that of ICrH for patients receiving antiplatelet or anticoagulant treatment alone, but the risk of ICrH exceeds that of IS in patients receiving both treatments. The findings suggest that either antiplatelet or anticoagulant treatment alone should not be avoided in patients with cSS, but combined antithrombotic therapy might be hazardous. Our findings need to be confirmed by randomized clinical trials

Development of imaging-based risk scores for prediction of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke in patients taking antithrombotic therapy after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack: a pooled analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies

Background: Balancing the risks of recurrent ischaemic stroke and intracranial haemorrhage is important for patients treated with antithrombotic therapy after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. However, existing predictive models offer insufficient performance, particularly for assessing the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. We aimed to develop new risk scores incorporating clinical variables and cerebral microbleeds, an MRI biomarker of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke risk. Methods: We did a pooled analysis of individual-patient data from the Microbleeds International Collaborative Network (MICON), which includes 38 hospital-based prospective cohort studies from 18 countries. All studies recruited participants with previous ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, acquired baseline MRI allowing quantification of cerebral microbleeds, and followed-up participants for ischaemic stroke and intracranial haemorrhage. Participants not taking antithrombotic drugs were excluded. We developed Cox regression models to predict the 5-year risks of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke, selecting candidate predictors on biological relevance and simplifying models using backward elimination. We derived integer risk scores for clinical use. We assessed model performance in internal validation, adjusted for optimism using bootstrapping. The study is registered on PROSPERO, CRD42016036602. Findings: The included studies recruited participants between Aug 28, 2001, and Feb 4, 2018. 15 766 participants had follow-up for intracranial haemorrhage, and 15 784 for ischaemic stroke. Over a median follow-up of 2 years, 184 intracranial haemorrhages and 1048 ischaemic strokes were reported. The risk models we developed included cerebral microbleed burden and simple clinical variables. Optimism-adjusted c indices were 0·73 (95% CI 0·69-0·77) with a calibration slope of 0·94 (0·81-1·06) for the intracranial haemorrhage model and 0·63 (0·62-0·65) with a calibration slope of 0·97 (0·87-1·07) for the ischaemic stroke model. There was good agreement between predicted and observed risk for both models. Interpretation: The MICON risk scores, incorporating clinical variables and cerebral microbleeds, offer predictive value for the long-term risks of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke in patients prescribed antithrombotic therapy for secondary stroke prevention; external validation is warranted. Funding: British Heart Foundation and Stroke Association.restrictio

Cerebral microbleeds and stroke risk after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack:a pooled analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies

BACKGROUND Cerebral microbleeds are a neuroimaging biomarker of stroke risk. A crucial clinical question is whether cerebral microbleeds indicate patients with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack in whom the rate of future intracranial haemorrhage is likely to exceed that of recurrent ischaemic stroke when treated with antithrombotic drugs. We therefore aimed to establish whether a large burden of cerebral microbleeds or particular anatomical patterns of cerebral microbleeds can identify ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack patients at higher absolute risk of intracranial haemorrhage than ischaemic stroke. METHODS We did a pooled analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies in adults with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. Cohorts were eligible for inclusion if they prospectively recruited adult participants with ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack; included at least 50 participants; collected data on stroke events over at least 3 months follow-up; used an appropriate MRI sequence that is sensitive to magnetic susceptibility; and documented the number and anatomical distribution of cerebral microbleeds reliably using consensus criteria and validated scales. Our prespecified primary outcomes were a composite of any symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage or ischaemic stroke, symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage, and symptomatic ischaemic stroke. We registered this study with the PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews, number CRD42016036602. FINDINGS Between Jan 1, 1996, and Dec 1, 2018, we identified 344 studies. After exclusions for ineligibility or declined requests for inclusion, 20 322 patients from 38 cohorts (over 35 225 patient-years of follow-up; median 1·34 years [IQR 0·19-2·44]) were included in our analyses. The adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] comparing patients with cerebral microbleeds to those without was 1·35 (95% CI 1·20-1·50) for the composite outcome of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke; 2·45 (1·82-3·29) for intracranial haemorrhage and 1·23 (1·08-1·40) for ischaemic stroke. The aHR increased with increasing cerebral microbleed burden for intracranial haemorrhage but this effect was less marked for ischaemic stroke (for five or more cerebral microbleeds, aHR 4·55 [95% CI 3·08-6·72] for intracranial haemorrhage vs 1·47 [1·19-1·80] for ischaemic stroke; for ten or more cerebral microbleeds, aHR 5·52 [3·36-9·05] vs 1·43 [1·07-1·91]; and for ≥20 cerebral microbleeds, aHR 8·61 [4·69-15·81] vs 1·86 [1·23-1·82]). However, irrespective of cerebral microbleed anatomical distribution or burden, the rate of ischaemic stroke exceeded that of intracranial haemorrhage (for ten or more cerebral microbleeds, 64 ischaemic strokes [95% CI 48-84] per 1000 patient-years vs 27 intracranial haemorrhages [17-41] per 1000 patient-years; and for ≥20 cerebral microbleeds, 73 ischaemic strokes [46-108] per 1000 patient-years vs 39 intracranial haemorrhages [21-67] per 1000 patient-years). INTERPRETATION In patients with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, cerebral microbleeds are associated with a greater relative hazard (aHR) for subsequent intracranial haemorrhage than for ischaemic stroke, but the absolute risk of ischaemic stroke is higher than that of intracranial haemorrhage, regardless of cerebral microbleed presence, antomical distribution, or burden. FUNDING British Heart Foundation and UK Stroke Association

Cerebral microbleeds and stroke risk after ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack : a pooled analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies

Altres ajuts: British Heart Foundation and UK Stroke Association.Cerebral microbleeds are a neuroimaging biomarker of stroke risk. A crucial clinical question is whether cerebral microbleeds indicate patients with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack in whom the rate of future intracranial haemorrhage is likely to exceed that of recurrent ischaemic stroke when treated with antithrombotic drugs. We therefore aimed to establish whether a large burden of cerebral microbleeds or particular anatomical patterns of cerebral microbleeds can identify ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack patients at higher absolute risk of intracranial haemorrhage than ischaemic stroke. We did a pooled analysis of individual patient data from cohort studies in adults with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. Cohorts were eligible for inclusion if they prospectively recruited adult participants with ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack; included at least 50 participants; collected data on stroke events over at least 3 months follow-up; used an appropriate MRI sequence that is sensitive to magnetic susceptibility; and documented the number and anatomical distribution of cerebral microbleeds reliably using consensus criteria and validated scales. Our prespecified primary outcomes were a composite of any symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage or ischaemic stroke, symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage, and symptomatic ischaemic stroke. We registered this study with the PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews, number CRD42016036602. Between Jan 1, 1996, and Dec 1, 2018, we identified 344 studies. After exclusions for ineligibility or declined requests for inclusion, 20 322 patients from 38 cohorts (over 35 225 patient-years of follow-up; median 1·34 years [IQR 0·19-2·44]) were included in our analyses. The adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] comparing patients with cerebral microbleeds to those without was 1·35 (95% CI 1·20-1·50) for the composite outcome of intracranial haemorrhage and ischaemic stroke; 2·45 (1·82-3·29) for intracranial haemorrhage and 1·23 (1·08-1·40) for ischaemic stroke. The aHR increased with increasing cerebral microbleed burden for intracranial haemorrhage but this effect was less marked for ischaemic stroke (for five or more cerebral microbleeds, aHR 4·55 [95% CI 3·08-6·72] for intracranial haemorrhage vs 1·47 [1·19-1·80] for ischaemic stroke; for ten or more cerebral microbleeds, aHR 5·52 [3·36-9·05] vs 1·43 [1·07-1·91]; and for ≥20 cerebral microbleeds, aHR 8·61 [4·69-15·81] vs 1·86 [1·23-2·82]). However, irrespective of cerebral microbleed anatomical distribution or burden, the rate of ischaemic stroke exceeded that of intracranial haemorrhage (for ten or more cerebral microbleeds, 64 ischaemic strokes [95% CI 48-84] per 1000 patient-years vs 27 intracranial haemorrhages [17-41] per 1000 patient-years; and for ≥20 cerebral microbleeds, 73 ischaemic strokes [46-108] per 1000 patient-years vs 39 intracranial haemorrhages [21-67] per 1000 patient-years). In patients with recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, cerebral microbleeds are associated with a greater relative hazard (aHR) for subsequent intracranial haemorrhage than for ischaemic stroke, but the absolute risk of ischaemic stroke is higher than that of intracranial haemorrhage, regardless of cerebral microbleed presence, antomical distribution, or burden. British Heart Foundation and UK Stroke Association