Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound

As projections have inflation heading back toward target and the labor market continuing to improve, the Federal Reserve has begun to contemplate an increase in the federal funds rate. There is however substantial uncertainty around these projections. How should this uncertainty affect monetary policy? In many standard models uncertainty has no effect. In this paper, we demonstrate that the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates implies that the central bank should adopt a looser policy when there is uncertainty. In the current context this result implies that a delayed liftoff is optimal. We demonstrate this result theoretically in two canonical macroeconomic models. Using numerical simulations of our models, calibrated to the current environment, we find optimal policy calls for 2 to 3 quarters delay in liftoff relative to a policy that does not take into account uncertainty about policy being constrained by the ZLB. We then use a narrative study of Federal Reserve communications and estimated policy reaction functions to show that risk management is a longstanding practice in the conduct of monetary policy

Unlike particle correlations and the strange quark matter distillation process

We present a new technique for observing the strange quark matter distillation process based on unlike particle correlations. A simulation is presented based on the scenario of a two-phase thermodynamical evolution model.Comment: 15 pages, 2 figures, 1 tabl

Pion radii in nonlocal chiral quark model

The electromagnetic radius of the charged pion and the transition radius of the neutral pion are calculated in the framework of the nonlocal chiral quark model. It is shown in this model that the contributions of vector mesons to the pion radii are noticeably suppressed in comparison with a similar contribution in the local Nambu--Jona-Lasinio model. The form-factor for the process gamma*pi+pi- is calculated for the -1 GeV^2<q^2<1.6 GeV^2. Our results are in satisfactory agreement with experimental data.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figure

Multiplicity correlations of intermediate-mass fragments with pions and fast protons in 12C + 197Au

Low-energy pi+ (E < 35 MeV) from 12C+197Au collisions at incident energies from 300 to 1800 MeV per nucleon were detected with the Si-Si(Li)-CsI(Tl) calibration telescopes of the INDRA multidetector. The inclusive angular distributions are approximately isotropic, consistent with multiple rescattering in the target spectator. The multiplicity correlations of the low-energy pions and of energetic protons (E > 150 MeV) with intermediate-mass fragments were determined from the measured coincidence data. The deduced correlation functions 1 + R \approx 1.3 for inclusive event samples reflect the strong correlations evident from the common impact-parameter dependence of the considered multiplicities. For narrow impact-parameter bins (based on charged-particle multiplicity), the correlation functions are close to unity and do not indicate strong additional correlations. Only for pions at high particle multiplicities (central collisions) a weak anticorrelation is observed, probably due to a limited competition between these emissions. Overall, the results are consistent with the equilibrium assumption made in statistical multifragmentation scenarios. Predictions obtained with intranuclear cascade models coupled to the Statistical Multifragmentation Model are in good agreement with the experimental data.Comment: 9 pages, 11 figures, subm. to EPJ

Statistical Multifragmentation of Non-Spherical Expanding Sources in Central Heavy-Ion Collisions

We study the anisotropy effects measured with INDRA at GSI in central collisions of Xe+Sn at 50 A.MeV and Au+Au at 60, 80, 100 A.MeV incident energy. The microcanonical multifragmentation model with non-spherical sources is used to simulate an incomplete shape relaxation of the multifragmenting system. This model is employed to interpret observed anisotropic distributions in the fragment size and mean kinetic energy. The data can be well reproduced if an expanding prolate source aligned along the beam direction is assumed. An either non-Hubblean or non-isotropic radial expansion is required to describe the fragment kinetic energies and their anisotropy. The qualitative similarity of the results for the studied reactions suggests that the concept of a longitudinally elongated freeze-out configuration is generally applicable for central collisions of heavy systems. The deformation decreases slightly with increasing beam energy.Comment: 35 pages, 19 figures, submitted to Nuclear Physics

Correlation functions and emission time sequence of light charged particles from projectile-like fragment source in E/A = 44 and 77 MeV 40Ar + 27Al collisions

Two-particle correlation functions, involving protons, deuterons, tritons, and alpha-particles, have been measured at very forward angles (0.7 deg < theta_lab < 7 deg), in order to study projectile-like fragment (PLF) emission in E/A = 44 and 77 MeV 40Ar + 27Al collisions. Peaks, originating from resonance decays, are larger at E/A = 44 than at 77 MeV. This reflects the larger relative importance of independently emitted light particles, as compared to two-particle decay from unstable fragments, at the higher beam energy. The time sequence of the light charged particles, emitted from the PLF, has been deduced from particle-velocity-gated correlation functions (discarding the contribution from resonance decays). Alpha-particles are found to have an average emission time shorter than protons but longer than tritons and deuterons.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Nuclear Physics

Time Scales in Spectator Fragmentation

Proton-proton correlations and correlations of p-alpha, d-alpha, and t-alpha from spectator decays following Au + Au collisions at 1000 AMeV have been measured with an highly efficient detector hodoscope. The constructed correlation functions indicate a moderate expansion and low breakup densities similar to assumptions made in statistical multifragmentation models. In agreement with a volume breakup rather short time scales were deduced employing directional cuts in proton-proton correlations. PACS numbers: 25.70.Pq, 21.65.+f, 25.70.MnComment: 8 pages, with 5 included figures; To appear in the proceedings of the CRIS 2000 conference; Also available from http://www-kp3.gsi.de/www/kp3/aladin_publications.htm

Multifragmentation in Xe(50A MeV)+Sn Confrontation of theory and data

We compare in detail central collisions Xe(50A MeV) + Sn, recently measured by the INDRA collaboration, with the Quantum Molecular Dynamics (QMD) model in order to identify the reaction mechanism which leads to multifragmentation. We find that QMD describes the data quite well, in the projectile/target region as well as in the midrapidity zone where also statistical models can be and have been employed. The agreement between QMD and data allows to use this dynamical model to investigate the reaction in detail. We arrive at the following observations: a) the in medium nucleon nucleon cross section is not significantly different from the free cross section, b) even the most central collisions have a binary character, c) most of the fragments are produced in the central collisions and d) the simulations as well as the data show a strong attractive in-plane flow resembling deep inelastic collisions e) at midrapidity the results from QMD and those from statistical model calculations agree for almost all observables with the exception of ${d^2 \sigma \over dZdE}$. This renders it difficult to extract the reaction mechanism from midrapidity fragments only. According to the simulations the reaction shows a very early formation of fragments, even in central collisions, which pass through the reaction zone without being destroyed. The final transverse momentum of the fragments is very close to the initial one and due to the Fermi motion. A heating up of the systems is not observed and hence a thermal origin of the spectra cannot be confirmed.Comment: figures 1 and 2 changed (no more ps -errors

Fragmentation in Peripheral Heavy-Ion Collisions: from Neck Emission to Spectator Decays

Invariant cross sections of intermediate mass fragments in peripheral collisions of Au on Au at incident energies between 40 and 150 AMeV have been measured with the 4-pi multi-detector INDRA. The maximum of the fragment production is located near mid-rapidity at the lower energies and moves gradually towards the projectile and target rapidities as the energy is increased. Schematic calculations within an extended Goldhaber model suggest that the observed cross-section distributions and their evolution with energy are predominantly the result of the clustering requirement for the emerging fragments and of their Coulomb repulsion from the projectile and target residues. The quantitative comparison with transverse energy spectra and fragment charge distributions emphasizes the role of hard scattered nucleons in the fragmentation process.Comment: 5 pages, 5 eps figures, RevTeX4, submitted to Phys. Lett.

Measurements of sideward flow around the balance energy

Sideward flow values have been determined with the INDRA multidetector for Ar+Ni, Ni+Ni and Xe+Sn systems studied at GANIL in the 30 to 100 A.MeV incident energy range. The balance energies found for Ar+Ni and Ni+Ni systems are in agreement with previous experimental results and theoretical calculations. Negative sideward flow values have been measured. The possible origins of such negative values are discussed. They could result from a more important contribution of evaporated particles with respect to the contribution of promptly emitted particles at mid-rapidity. But effects induced by the methods used to reconstruct the reaction plane cannot be totally excluded. Complete tests of these methods are presented and the origins of the ``auto-correlation'' effect have been traced back. For heavy fragments, the observed negative flow values seem to be mainly due to the reaction plane reconstruction methods. For light charged particles, these negative values could result from the dynamics of the collisions and from the reaction plane reconstruction methods as well. These effects have to be taken into account when comparisons with theoretical calculations are done.Comment: 27 pages, 15 figure