The effect of heterogeneity on invasion in spatial epidemics: from theory to experimental evidence in a model system

Heterogeneity in host populations is an important factor affecting the ability of a pathogen to invade, yet the quantitative investigation of its effects on epidemic spread is still an open problem. In this paper, we test recent theoretical results, which extend the established “percolation paradigm” to the spread of a pathogen in discrete heterogeneous host populations. In particular, we test the hypothesis that the probability of epidemic invasion decreases when host heterogeneity is increased. We use replicated experimental microcosms, in which the ubiquitous pathogenic fungus Rhizoctonia solani grows through a population of discrete nutrient sites on a lattice, with nutrient sites representing hosts. The degree of host heterogeneity within different populations is adjusted by changing the proportion and the nutrient concentration of nutrient sites. The experimental data are analysed via Bayesian inference methods, estimating pathogen transmission parameters for each individual population. We find a significant, negative correlation between heterogeneity and the probability of pathogen invasion, thereby validating the theory. The value of the correlation is also in remarkably good agreement with the theoretical predictions. We briefly discuss how our results can be exploited in the design and implementation of disease control strategies

Epidemics in Networks of Spatially Correlated Three-dimensional Root Branching Structures

Using digitized images of the three-dimensional, branching structures for root systems of bean seedlings, together with analytical and numerical methods that map a common 'SIR' epidemiological model onto the bond percolation problem, we show how the spatially-correlated branching structures of plant roots affect transmission efficiencies, and hence the invasion criterion, for a soil-borne pathogen as it spreads through ensembles of morphologically complex hosts. We conclude that the inherent heterogeneities in transmissibilities arising from correlations in the degrees of overlap between neighbouring plants, render a population of root systems less susceptible to epidemic invasion than a corresponding homogeneous system. Several components of morphological complexity are analysed that contribute to disorder and heterogeneities in transmissibility of infection. Anisotropy in root shape is shown to increase resilience to epidemic invasion, while increasing the degree of branching enhances the spread of epidemics in the population of roots. Some extension of the methods for other epidemiological systems are discussed.Comment: 21 pages, 8 figure

Widespread Infilling of Tidal Channels and Navigable Waterways in the Human-Modified Tidal Deltaplain of Southwest Bangladesh

Since the 1960s, ~5000 km2 of tidal deltaplain in southwest Bangladesh has been embanked and converted to densely inhabited, agricultural islands (i.e., polders). This landscape is juxtaposed to the adjacent Sundarbans, a pristine mangrove forest, both well connected by a dense network of tidal channels that effectively convey water and sediment throughout the region. The extensive embanking in poldered areas, however, has greatly reduced the tidal prism (i.e., volume of water) transported through local channels. We reveal that \u3e600 km of these major waterways have infilled in recent decades, converting to land through enhanced sedimentation and the direct blocking of waterways by embankments and sluice gates. Nearly all of the observed closures (~98%) have occurred along the embanked polder systems, with no comparable changes occurring in channels of the Sundarbans (2 of new land in the last 40–50 years, the rate of which, ~2 km2/yr, offsets the 4 km2/yr that is eroded at the coast, and is equivalent to ~20% of the new land produced naturally at the Ganges-Brahmaputra tidal rivermouth. Most of this new land, called ‘khas’ in Bengali, has been reclaimed for agriculture or aquaculture, contributing to the local economy. However, benefits are tempered by the loss of navigable waterways for commerce, transportation, and fishing, as well as the forced rerouting of tidal waters and sediments necessary to sustain this low-lying landscape against rising sea level. A more sustainable delta will require detailed knowledge of the consequences of these hydrodynamic changes to support more scientifically-grounded management of water, sediment, and tidal energy distribution

Negotiating professional and social voices in research principles and practice

This paper draws on work conducted for a qualitative interview based study which explores the gendered racialised and professional identifications of health and social care professionals. Participants for the project were drawn from the professional executive committees of recently formed Primary Care Trusts. The paper discusses how the feminist psychosocial methodological approach developed for the project is theoretically, practically and ethically useful in exploring the voices of those in positions of relative power in relation to both health and social care services and the social relations of gender and ethnicity. The approach draws on psychodynamic accounts of (defended) subjectivity and the feminist work of Carol Gilligan on a voice-centred relational methodology. Coupling the feminist with the psychosocial facilitates an emphasis on voice and dialogic communication between participant and researcher not always captured in psychosocial approaches which tend towards favouring the interviewer as ‘good listener’. This emphasis on dialogue is important in research contexts where prior and ongoing relationships with professional participants make it difficult and indeed undesirable for researchers to maintain silence

Social protection: Designing adaptive systems to build resilience to climate change

Social protection programs are a central component of national strategies in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to increase incomes for poor households and protect them from shocks to their livelihoods. Social protection programs currently reach more than 2 billion people worldwide and are found in every country in sub-Saharan Africa. Social protection systems comprise a wide variety of programs that include targeted cash and food transfers, food vouchers, school meals, public works, old age pensions, and public sector insurance, as well as the policy, administrative, and funding mechanisms to deliver these programs. Numerous studies that draw extensively on rigorous impact evaluations have documented substantial short-term impacts of social protection programs, especially cash and in-kind social assistance, on food security and asset formation, as well as on education, health, and dietary diversity. However, evidence on the impact of social protection systems designed to sustainably reduce poverty by responding to large-scale shocks is more limited. For example, many national social protection systems in the poorest and most vulnerable countries of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia dating to the 2000s started with targeted standing safety net programs and then later integrated measures to provide humanitarian assistance, scale up temporary transfers to better respond to shocks, and promote household and community resilience — the ability to avoid or escape from chronic poverty in the face of myriad stressors and shocks. The potential for social protection to help address the challenges of climate change has been recognized for more than a decade, but the expansion of social protection programs designed to address climate change is relatively recent

Listening and learning : the reciprocal relationship between worker and client

The relationship between worker and client has for the best part of 100 years been the mainstay of probation, and yet has recently been eroded by an increased emphasis on punishment, blame and managerialism. The views of offenders are in direct contradiction to these developments within the criminal justice system and this article argues that only by taking account of the views of those at the 'coal face' will criminologists, policy makers and practitioners be able to effect real change in crime rates. The article thus focuses on the views of a sample of previously persistent offenders in Scotland about offending, desistance and how the system can help them. It explores not only their need for friendship and support in youth but also the close association between relationships and the likelihood of offending. It also demonstrates the views of offenders themselves about the importance of the working relationship with supervising officers in helping them desist from crime. The article concludes that the most effective way of reducing offending is to re-engage with the message of the Probation Act of 100 years ago, namely, to 'advise, assist and befriend' offenders rather than to 'confront, challenge and change' offending behaviour

Airborne Simulation of Launch Vehicle Dynamics

In this paper we present a technique for approximating the short-period dynamics of an exploration-class launch vehicle during flight test with a high-performance surrogate aircraft in relatively benign endoatmospheric flight conditions. The surrogate vehicle relies upon a nonlinear dynamic inversion scheme with proportional-integral feedback to drive a subset of the aircraft states into coincidence with the states of a time-varying reference model that simulates the unstable rigid body dynamics, servodynamics, and parasitic elastic and sloshing dynamics of the launch vehicle. The surrogate aircraft flies a constant pitch rate trajectory to approximate the boost phase gravity turn ascent, and the aircraft's closed-loop bandwidth is sufficient to simulate the launch vehicle's fundamental lateral bending and sloshing modes by exciting the rigid body dynamics of the aircraft. A novel control allocation scheme is employed to utilize the aircraft's relatively fast control effectors in inducing various failure modes for the purposes of evaluating control system performance. Sufficient dynamic similarity is achieved such that the control system under evaluation is configured for the full-scale vehicle with no changes to its parameters, and pilot-control system interaction studies can be performed to characterize the effects of guidance takeover during boost. High-fidelity simulation and flight-test results are presented that demonstrate the efficacy of the design in simulating the Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle dynamics using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Armstrong Flight Research Center Fullscale Advanced Systems Testbed (FAST), a modified F/A-18 airplane (McDonnell Douglas, now The Boeing Company, Chicago, Illinois), over a range of scenarios designed to stress the SLS's Adaptive Augmenting Control (AAC) algorithm

Airborne Simulation of Launch Vehicle Dynamics

In this paper we present a technique for approximating the short-period dynamics of an exploration-class launch vehicle during flight test with a high-performance surrogate aircraft in relatively benign endoatmospheric flight conditions. The surrogate vehicle relies upon a nonlinear dynamic inversion scheme with proportional-integral feedback to drive a subset of the aircraft states into coincidence with the states of a time-varying reference model that simulates the unstable rigid body dynamics, servodynamics, and parasitic elastic and sloshing dynamics of the launch vehicle. The surrogate aircraft flies a constant pitch rate trajectory to approximate the boost phase gravity-turn ascent, and the aircraft's closed-loop bandwidth is sufficient to simulate the launch vehicle's fundamental lateral bending and sloshing modes by exciting the rigid body dynamics of the aircraft. A novel control allocation scheme is employed to utilize the aircraft's relatively fast control effectors in inducing various failure modes for the purposes of evaluating control system performance. Sufficient dynamic similarity is achieved such that the control system under evaluation is optimized for the full-scale vehicle with no changes to its parameters, and pilot-control system interaction studies can be performed to characterize the effects of guidance takeover during boost. High-fidelity simulation and flight test results are presented that demonstrate the efficacy of the design in simulating the Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle dynamics using NASA Dryden Flight Research Center's Full-scale Advanced Systems Testbed (FAST), a modified F/A-18 airplane, over a range of scenarios designed to stress the SLS's adaptive augmenting control (AAC) algorithm

A Cellular Automata Model for Citrus Variagated Chlorosis

A cellular automata model is proposed to analyze the progress of Citrus Variegated Chlorosis epidemics in S\~ao Paulo oranges plantation. In this model epidemiological and environmental features, such as motility of sharpshooter vectors which perform L\'evy flights, hydric and nutritional level of plant stress and seasonal climatic effects, are included. The observed epidemics data were quantitatively reproduced by the proposed model varying the parameters controlling vectors motility, plant stress and initial population of diseased plants.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures, Scheduled tentatively for the issue of: 01Nov0

Gender and educational leadership in England: a comparison of secondary headteachers' views over time

In the context of gender being a barrier to accessing leadership, this paper presents a comparison of the views of men and women head teacher (principals) of secondary schools in England in the 1990s and in 2004. The same survey instrument was used on both occasions. The perceptions of the head teachers show change in some areas and no change in others. Overall, women are more likely to become head teachers and are now less likely to be categorised into pastoral roles, but in some cases women still meet prejudice from governors and others in the wider community. Women head teachers are more likely to have partners and children than in the 1990s, sharing equally or carrying most of the domestic responsibilities, whereas male colleagues are most likely to have partners who take the majority of responsibility in the home. Essentialist stereotypes about women and men as leaders still prevail, although both the women and men head teachers see themselves as adopting a traditionally ‘feminine’ style of leadership. Women head teachers are likely to see some benefits in being a woman in a role stereotypically associated with men. However, there has been an increase in the proportion of women who feel that they have to prove their worth as a leader, and this may be linked with increased levels of accountability in schools