What Do Economists Know About Crime?

In this paper we evaluate what economists have learned over the past 40 years about the determinants of crime. We base our evaluation on two kinds of evidence: an examination of aggregate data over long time periods and across countries, and a critical review of the literature. We argue that economists know little about the empirically relevant determinants of crime. Even hypotheses that find some support in U.S. data for recent decades are inconsistent with data over longer horizons or across countries. This conclusion applies both to policy variables like arrest rates or capital punishment and to less conventional factors such as abortion or gun laws. The hypothesis that drug prohibition generates violence, however, is generally consistent with the long times-series and cross-country facts. This analysis is also consistent with a broader perspective in which government policies that affect the nature and amount of dispute resolution play an important role in determining violence.

A Primer on the Current State-of-the-Science Neoadjuvant and Adjuvant Therapy for Patients with Locally Advanced Rectal Adenocarcinomas

Patients with rectal cancers, due to the unique location of the tumor, have a recurrence pattern distinct from colon cancers. Advances in adjuvant therapy over the last three decades have played an important role in improving patient outcomes. This article serves to review the clinical studies that lay the basis for our current standard-of-care treatment of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer, as well as touch upon future ongoing experimental clinical trials of adjuvant chemoradiation therapy

Off-Label Use of Phosphodiesterase Type 5 Inhibitor Erectile Dysfunction Medication to Enhance Sex Among Gay and Bisexual Men in Australia: Results from the FLUX Study

Introduction: Gay and bisexual men (GBM) use erectile dysfunction medications (EDM) such as Viagra™, Cialis™ and Levitra™ often with little evidence of medical indication that might necessitate their use. Aim: We investigate the prevalence and contexts of, and motivations for, EDM use, and its relationship to sexual risk behavior. Method: Between September 2014 and July 2015, Australian GBM were invited to enroll online through social networking and gay community sites to complete a comprehensive survey looking at licit and illicit drug use and their associated behaviors. A total of 2250 GBM completed the questionnaire. Main outcome measures: Any EDM use, and at least weekly use in the previous six months. Results: Two thirds (67.7%) reported no history of EDM use in their lifetime. Approximately one in ten participants (11.1%) had last used EDM more than six months ago. In the previous six months, 11.5% reported using EDM less than monthly, 5.3% at least monthly, and 4.5% weekly or more often. Among men who had used EDM in the previous six months, the most common reasons cited for its use were: to maintain an erection for longer (73.3%), to make it easier to get hard (67.3%), and difficulty in attaining or maintain an erection (53.5%). Conclusion: While some GBM use EDM specifically for erectile dysfunction, many also use EDM to enhance their sexual experiences. Often, this occurs in the context of intensive sex partying, which may include risky sexual behavior. The use of EDM in the context of intensive sex partying (which include the combined use of EDM and illicit drugs), with the associated potential for increased risk of HIV transmission, indicates a need to consider the use of EDM among GBM in HIV prevention

Association of Systemic Inflammation With Retinal Vascular Caliber in Patients With AIDS.

PurposeTo evaluate relationships among retinal vascular caliber and biomarkers of systemic inflammation in patients with AIDS.MethodsA total of 454 participants with AIDS had retinal vascular caliber (central retinal artery equivalent and central retinal vein equivalent) determined from enrollment retinal photographs by reading center graders masked to clinical and biomarker information. Cryopreserved plasma specimens were assayed for inflammatory biomarkers, including C-reactive protein (CRP), IL-6, interferon-γ inducible protein (IP)-10, kynurenine/tryptophan (KT) ratio, and intestinal fatty acid binding protein (I-FABP).ResultsIn the simple linear regression of retinal vascular caliber on plasma biomarkers, elevated CRP, IL-6, and IP-10 were associated with retinal venular dilation, and elevated KT ratio with retinal arteriolar narrowing. In the multiple linear regression, including baseline characteristics and plasma biomarkers, AMD was associated with dilation of retinal arterioles (mean difference: 9.1 μm; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.2, 12.9; P < 0.001) and venules (mean difference, 10.9 μm; 95% CI, 5.3, 16.6; P < 0.001), as was black race (P < 0.001). Hyperlipidemia was associated with retinal venular narrowing (mean difference, -7.5 μm; 95% CI, -13.7, -1.2; P = 0.02); cardiovascular disease with arteriolar narrowing (mean difference, -5.2 μm; 95% CI, -10.3, -0.1; P = 0.05); age with arteriolar narrowing (slope, -0.26 μm/year; 95% CI, -0.46, -0.06; P = 0.009); and IL-6 with venular dilation (slope, 5.3 μm/standard deviation log10[plasma IL-6 concentration]; 95% CI, 2.7, 8.0; P < 0.001).ConclusionsThese data suggest that retinal vascular caliber is associated with age, race, AMD, hyperlipidemia, cardiovascular disease, and selected biomarkers of systemic inflammation

ARCHITECTURE FOR A CBM+ AND PHM CENTRIC DIGITAL TWIN FOR WARFARE SYSTEMS

The Department of the Navy’s continued progression from time-based maintenance into condition-based maintenance plus (CBM+) shows the importance of increasing operational availability (Ao) across fleet weapon systems. This capstone uses the concept of digital efficiency from a digital twin (DT) combined with a three-dimensional (3D) direct metal laser melting printer as the physical host on board a surface vessel. The DT provides an agnostic conduit for combining model-based systems engineering with a digital analysis for real-time prognostic health monitoring while improving predictive maintenance. With the DT at the forefront of prioritized research and development, the 3D printer combines the value of additive manufacturing with complex systems in dynamic shipboard environments. To demonstrate that the DT possesses parallel abilities for improving both the physical host’s Ao and end-goal mission, this capstone develops a DT architecture and a high-level model. The model focuses on specific printer components (deionized [DI] water level, DI water conductivity, air filters, and laser motor drive system) to demonstrate the DT’s inherent effectiveness towards CBM+. To embody the system of systems analysis for printer suitability and performance, more components should be evaluated and combined with the ship’s environment data. Additionally, this capstone recommends the use of DTs as a nexus into more complex weapon systems while using a deeper level of design of experiment.Outstanding ThesisCivilian, Department of the NavyCommander, United States NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyCivilian, Department of the NavyApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

The effect of a quantitative resuscitation strategy on mortality in patients with sepsis: A meta-analysis

Objective Quantitative resuscitation consists of structured cardiovascular intervention targeting predefined hemodynamic end points. We sought to measure the treatment effect of quantitative resuscitation on mortality from sepsis. Data Sources We conducted a systematic review of the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, conference proceedings, clinical practice guidelines, and other sources using a comprehensive strategy. Study Selection We identified randomized control trials comparing quantitative resuscitation with standard resuscitation in adult patients who were diagnosed with sepsis using standard criteria. The primary outcome variable was mortality. Data Abstraction Three authors independently extracted data and assessed study quality using standardized instruments; consensus was reached by conference. Preplanned subgroup analysis required studies to be categorized based on early (at the time of diagnosis) vs. late resuscitation implementation. We used the chi-square test and I2 to assess for statistical heterogeneity (p 25%). The primary analysis was based on the random effects model to produce pooled odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Results The search yielded 29 potential publications; nine studies were included in the final analysis, providing a sample of 1001 patients. The combined results demonstrate a decrease in mortality (odds ratio 0.64, 95% confidence interval 0.43–0.96); however, there was statistically significant heterogeneity (p = 0.07, I2 = 45%). Among the early quantitative resuscitation studies (n = 6) there was minimal heterogeneity (p = 0.40, I2 = 2.4%) and a significant decrease in mortality (odds ratio 0.50, 95% confidence interval 0.37–0.69). The late quantitative resuscitation studies (n = 3) demonstrated no significant effect on mortality (odds ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval 0.60–2.22). Conclusion This meta-analysis found that applying an early quantitative resuscitation strategy to patients with sepsis imparts a significant reduction in mortality

Subjective probability and quantum certainty

In the Bayesian approach to quantum mechanics, probabilities--and thus quantum states--represent an agent's degrees of belief, rather than corresponding to objective properties of physical systems. In this paper we investigate the concept of certainty in quantum mechanics. Particularly, we show how the probability-1 predictions derived from pure quantum states highlight a fundamental difference between our Bayesian approach, on the one hand, and Copenhagen and similar interpretations on the other. We first review the main arguments for the general claim that probabilities always represent degrees of belief. We then argue that a quantum state prepared by some physical device always depends on an agent's prior beliefs, implying that the probability-1 predictions derived from that state also depend on the agent's prior beliefs. Quantum certainty is therefore always some agent's certainty. Conversely, if facts about an experimental setup could imply agent-independent certainty for a measurement outcome, as in many Copenhagen-like interpretations, that outcome would effectively correspond to a preexisting system property. The idea that measurement outcomes occurring with certainty correspond to preexisting system properties is, however, in conflict with locality. We emphasize this by giving a version of an argument of Stairs [A. Stairs, Phil. Sci. 50, 578 (1983)], which applies the Kochen-Specker theorem to an entangled bipartite system.Comment: 20 pages RevTeX, 1 figure, extensive changes in response to referees' comment

Dietary Patterns and Risk of Colorectal Cancer Subtypes Classified by Fusobacterium nucleatum in Tumor Tissue

Importance—Fusobacterium nucleatum appears to play a role in colorectal carcinogenesis through suppression of host immune response to tumor. Evidence also suggests that diet influences intestinal F. nucleatum. However, the role of F. nucleatum in mediating the relationship between diet and the risk of colorectal cancer is unknown. Objective—To test the hypothesis that the associations of prudent diets (rich in whole grains and dietary fiber) and Western diets (rich in red and processed meat, refined grains, and desserts) with colorectal cancer risk may differ according to the presence of F. nucleatum in tumor tissue. Design—Prospective cohort study. Setting—The Nurses’ Health Study (1980–2012) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986–2012). Participants—121,700 US female nurses and 51,529 US male health professionals aged 30 to 55 years and 40 to 75 years, respectively, at enrollment. Exposures—Prudent and Western dietary patterns. Main Outcomes and Measures—Incidence of colorectal carcinoma subclassified by F. nucleatum status in tumor tissue, determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Results—We documented 1,019 incident colon and rectal cancer cases with available F. nucleatum data among predominantly white 137,217 individuals over 26–32 years of follow-up encompassing 3,643,562 person-years. The association of prudent diet with colorectal cancer significantly differed by tissue F. nucleatum status (Pheterogeneity = .01). Prudent diet score was associated with a lower risk of F. nucleatum-positive cancers [Ptrend = .003; multivariable hazard ratio of 0.43 (95% confidence interval 0.25–0.72) for the highest vs. the lowest prudent score quartile], but not with F. nucleatum-negative cancers (Ptrend = .47). Dietary component analyses suggested possible differential associations for the cancer subgroups according to intakes of dietary fiber (Pheterogeneity = .02). There was no significant heterogeneity between the subgroups according to Western dietary pattern scores (Pheterogeneity = .23). Conclusions and Relevance—Prudent diets rich in whole grains and dietary fiber are associated with a lower risk for F. nucleatum-positive colorectal cancer but not F. nucleatum-negative cancer, supporting a potential role for intestinal microbiota in mediating the association between diet and colorectal neoplasms