Real-time prediction with U.K. monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty

A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out-of-sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime

Cortisol/Cortisone Levels and Quality of Life in Individuals with Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH).

Individuals with pulmonary arterial hypertension experience debilitating symptoms and psychological distress which may influence their cortisol regulation. We describe associations between diurnal salivary cortisol/cortisone levels and quality of life in adults with pulmonary arterial hypertension. Findings suggest potential clinical utility of cortisol/cortisone assessment as applied to a pulmonary arterial hypertension population

Policies for ecological intensification of crop production

Ecological intensification aims to increase crop productivity by enhancing biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, while minimizing the use of synthetic inputs and cropland expansion. Policies to promote ecological intensification have emerged in different countries, but they are still scarce and vary widely across regions. Here, we propose ten policy targets that governments can follow for ecological intensification

17‐α estradiol ameliorates age‐associated sarcopenia and improves late‐life physical function in male mice but not in females or castrated males

Pharmacological treatments can extend mouse lifespan, but lifespan effects often differ between sexes. 17‐α estradiol (17aE2), a less feminizing structural isomer of 17‐β estradiol, produces lifespan extension only in male mice, suggesting a sexually dimorphic mechanism of lifespan regulation. We tested whether these anti‐aging effects extend to anatomical and functional aging—important in late‐life health—and whether gonadally derived hormones control aging responses to 17aE2 in either sex. While 17aE2 started at 4 months of age diminishes body weight in both sexes during adulthood, in late‐life 17aE2‐treated mice better maintain body weight. In 17aE2‐treated male mice, the higher body weight is associated with heavier skeletal muscles and larger muscle fibers compared with untreated mice during aging, while treated females have heavier subcutaneous fat. Maintenance of skeletal muscle in male mice is associated with improved grip strength and rotarod capacity at 25 months, in addition to higher levels of most amino acids in quadriceps muscle. We further show that sex‐specific responses to 17aE2—metabolomic, structural, and functional—are regulated by gonadal hormones in male mice. Castrated males have heavier quadriceps than intact males at 25 months, but do not respond to 17aE2, suggesting 17aE2 promotes an anti‐aging skeletal muscle phenotype similar to castration. Finally, 17aE2 treatment benefits can be recapitulated in mice when treatment is started at 16 months, suggesting that 17aE2 may be able to improve aspects of late‐life function even when started after middle age.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/148386/1/acel12920_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/148386/2/acel12920.pd

Design considerations in a clinical trial of a cognitive behavioural intervention for the management of low back pain in primary care : Back Skills Training Trial

Background Low back pain (LBP) is a major public health problem. Risk factors for the development and persistence of LBP include physical and psychological factors. However, most research activity has focused on physical solutions including manipulation, exercise training and activity promotion. Methods/Design This randomised controlled trial will establish the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a group programme, based on cognitive behavioural principles, for the management of sub-acute and chronic LBP in primary care. Our primary outcomes are disease specific measures of pain and function. Secondary outcomes include back beliefs, generic health related quality of life and resource use. All outcomes are measured over 12 months. Participants randomised to the intervention arm are invited to attend up to six weekly sessions each of 90 minutes; each group has 6–8 participants. A parallel qualitative study will aid the evaluation of the intervention. Discussion In this paper we describe the rationale and design of a randomised evaluation of a group based cognitive behavioural intervention for low back pain

Rasch analysis of the Psychiatric Out-Patient Experiences Questionnaire (POPEQ)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Psychiatric Out-Patient Experiences Questionnaire (POPEQ) is an 11-item core measure of psychiatric out-patients experiences of the perceived outcome of the treatment, the quality of interaction with the clinician, and the quality of information provision. The POPEQ was found to have evidence for reliability and validity following the application of classical test theory but has not previously been assessed by Rasch analysis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two national postal surveys of psychiatric outpatients took place in Norway in 2004 and 2007. The performance of the POPEQ, including item functioning and differential item functioning, was assessed by Rasch analysis. Principal component analysis of item residuals was used to assess the presence of subdimensions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>6,677 (43.3%) and 11,085 (35.2%) psychiatric out patients responded to the questionnaire in 2004 and 2007, respectively. All items in the scale were retained after the Rasch analysis. The resulting scale had reasonably good fit to the Rasch model. The items performed the same for the two survey years and there was no differential item functioning relating to patient characteristics. Principal component analysis of the residuals confirmed that the measure to a high degree is unidimensional. However, the data also reflects three potential subscales, each relating to one of the three included aspects of health care.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The POPEQ had excellent psychometric properties and Rasch analysis further supported the construct validity of the scale by also identifying the three subdimensions originally included as components in the instrument development. The 11-item instrument is recommended in future research on psychiatric out-patient experiences. Future development may lead to the construction of more precise measures of the three subdomains that the POPEQ is based on.</p

Molecular recognition and maturation of SOD1 by its evolutionarily destabilised cognate chaperone hCCS

<div><p>Superoxide dismutase-1 (SOD1) maturation comprises a string of posttranslational modifications which transform the nascent peptide into a stable and active enzyme. The successive folding, metal ion binding, and disulphide acquisition steps in this pathway can be catalysed through a direct interaction with the copper chaperone for SOD1 (CCS). This process confers enzymatic activity and reduces access to noncanonical, aggregation-prone states. Here, we present the functional mechanisms of human copper chaperone for SOD1 (hCCS)–catalysed SOD1 activation based on crystal structures of reaction precursors, intermediates, and products. Molecular recognition of immature SOD1 by hCCS is driven by several interface interactions, which provide an extended surface upon which SOD1 folds. Induced-fit complexation is reliant on the structural plasticity of the immature SOD1 disulphide sub-loop, a characteristic which contributes to misfolding and aggregation in neurodegenerative disease. Complexation specifically stabilises the SOD1 disulphide sub-loop, priming it and the active site for copper transfer, while delaying disulphide formation and complex dissociation. Critically, a single destabilising amino acid substitution within the hCCS interface reduces hCCS homodimer affinity, creating a pool of hCCS available to interact with immature SOD1. hCCS substrate specificity, segregation between solvent and biological membranes, and interaction transience are direct results of this substitution. In this way, hCCS-catalysed SOD1 maturation is finessed to minimise copper wastage and reduce production of potentially toxic SOD1 species.</p></div

Apple pollination: demand depends on variety and supply depends on pollinator identity

Insect pollination underpins apple production but the extent to which different pollinator guilds supply this service, particularly across different apple varieties, is unknown. Such information is essential if appropriate orchard management practices are to be targeted and proportional to the potential benefits pollinator species may provide. Here we use a novel combination of pollinator effectiveness assays (floral visit effectiveness), orchard field surveys (flower visitation rate) and pollinator dependence manipulations (pollinator exclusion experiments) to quantify the supply of pollination services provided by four different pollinator guilds to the production of four commercial varieties of apple. We show that not all pollinators are equally effective at pollinating apples, with hoverflies being less effective than solitary bees and bumblebees, and the relative abundance of different pollinator guilds visiting apple flowers of different varieties varies significantly. Based on this, the taxa specific economic benefits to UK apple production have been established. The contribution of insect pollinators to the economic output in all varieties was estimated to be £92.1M across the UK, with contributions varying widely across taxa: solitary bees (£51.4M), honeybees (£21.4M), bumblebees (£18.6M) and hoverflies (£0.7M). This research highlights the differences in the economic benefits of four insect pollinator guilds to four major apple varieties in the UK. This information is essential to underpin appropriate investment in pollination services management and provides a model that can be used in other entomolophilous crops to improve our understanding of crop pollination ecology

Structures of substrate- and product-bound forms of a multi-domain copper nitrite reductase shed light on the role of domain tethering in protein complexes

Copper-containing nitrite reductases (CuNiRs) are found in all three kingdoms of life and play a major role in the denitrification branch of the global nitrogen cycle where nitrate is used in place of dioxygen as an electron acceptor in respiratory energy metabolism. Several C- and N-terminal redox domain tethered CuNiRs have been identified and structurally characterized during the last decade. Our understanding of the role of tethered domains in these new classes of three-domain CuNiRs, where an extra cytochrome or cupredoxin domain is tethered to the catalytic two-domain CuNiRs, has remained limited. This is further compounded by a complete lack of substrate-bound structures for these tethered CuNiRs. There is still no substrate-bound structure for any of the as-isolated wild-type tethered enzymes. Here, structures of nitrite and product-bound states from a nitrite-soaked crystal of the N-terminal cupredoxin-tethered enzyme from the Hyphomicrobium denitrificans strain 1NES1 (Hd 1NES1NiR) are provided. These, together with the as-isolated structure of the same species, provide clear evidence for the role of the N-terminal peptide bearing the conserved His27 in water-mediated anchoring of the substrate at the catalytic T2Cu site. Our data indicate a more complex role of tethering than the intuitive advantage for a partner-protein electron-transfer complex by narrowing the conformational search in such a combined system.</jats:p

Randomised trial of glutamine and selenium supplemented parenteral nutrition for critically ill patients

Background: Mortality rates in the Intensive Care Unit and subsequent hospital mortality rates in the UK remain high. Infections in Intensive Care are associated with a 2–3 times increased risk of death. It is thought that under conditions of severe metabolic stress glutamine becomes "conditionally essential". Selenium is an essential trace element that has antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties. Approximately 23% of patients in Intensive Care require parenteral nutrition and glutamine and selenium are either absent or present in low amounts. Both glutamine and selenium have the potential to influence the immune system through independent biochemical pathways. Systematic reviews suggest that supplementing parenteral nutrition in critical illness with glutamine or selenium may reduce infections and mortality. Pilot data has shown that more than 50% of participants developed infections, typically resistant organisms. We are powered to show definitively whether supplementation of PN with either glutamine or selenium is effective at reducing new infections in critically ill patients. Methods/design: 2 × 2 factorial, pragmatic, multicentre, double-blind, randomised controlled trial. The trial has an enrolment target of 500 patients. Inclusion criteria include: expected to be in critical care for at least 48 hours, aged 16 years or over, patients who require parenteral nutrition and are expected to have at least half their daily nutritional requirements given by that route. Allocation is to one of four iso-caloric, iso-nitrogenous groups: glutamine, selenium, both glutamine & selenium or no additional glutamine or selenium. Trial supplementation is given for up to seven days on the Intensive Care Unit and subsequent wards if practicable. The primary outcomes are episodes of infection in the 14 days after starting trial nutrition and mortality. Secondary outcomes include antibiotic usage, length of hospital stay, quality of life and cost-effectiveness. Discussion: To date more than 285 patients have been recruited to the trial from 10 sites in Scotland. Recruitment is due to finish in August 2008 with a further six months follow up. We expect to report the results of the trial in summer 2009. Trial registration: This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number system. ISRCTN87144826Not peer reviewedPublisher PD