Eddy-resolving simulations of the Fimbul Ice Shelf cavity circulation: Basal melting and exchange with open ocean

Melting at the base of floating ice shelves is a dominant term in the overall Antarctic mass budget. This study applies a high-resolution regional ice shelf/ocean model, constrained by observations, to (i) quantify present basal mass loss at the Fimbul Ice Shelf (FIS); and (ii) investigate the oceanic mechanisms that govern the heat supply to ice shelves in the Eastern Weddell Sea. The simulations confirm the low melt rates suggested by observations and show that melting is primarily determined by the depth of the coastal thermocline, regulating deep ocean heat fluxes towards the ice. Furthermore, the uneven distribution of ice shelf area at different depths modulates the melting response to oceanic forcing, causing the existence of two distinct states of melting at the FIS. In the simulated present-day state, only small amounts of Modified Warm Deep Water enter the continental shelf, and ocean temperatures beneath the ice are close to the surface freezing point. The basal mass loss in this so-called state of “shallow melting” is mainly controlled by the seasonal inflow of solar-heated surface water affecting large areas of shallow ice in the upper part of the cavity. This is in contrast to a state of “deep melting”, in which the thermocline rises above the shelf break depth, establishing a continuous inflow of Warm Deep Water towards the deep ice. The transition between the two states is found to be determined by a complex response of the Antarctic Slope Front overturning circulation to varying climate forcings. A proper representation of these frontal dynamics in climate models will therefore be crucial when assessing the evolution of ice shelf basal melting along this sector of Antarctica

A review of the oceanography and Antarctic Bottom Water formation offshore Cape Darnley, East Antarctica

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is the densest water mass in the world and drives the lower limb of the global thermohaline circulation. AABW is formed in only four regions around Antarctica and Cape Darnley, East Antarctica, is the most recently discovered formation region. Here, we compile 40 years of oceanographic data for this region to provide the climatological oceanographic conditions, and review the water mass properties and their role in AABW formation. We split the region into three sectors (East, Central and West) and identified the main water masses, current regimes and their influence on the formation of Cape Darnley Bottom Water (CDBW). In the eastern sector, Prydz Bay, the formation of Ice Shelf Water preconditions the water (cold and fresh) that flows into the central sector to ~68.5◦E, enhancing sea ice production in Cape Darnley Polynya. This produces a high salinity variant of DSW (up to 35.15 g/kg) DSW that we coin Burton Basin DSW. In contrast, the western sector of the Cape Darnley Polynya produces a low salinity variant (up to 34.85 g/kg) we coin Nielsen Basin DSW. The resultant combined CDBW is the warmest (upper temperature bound of 0.05◦C) AABW formed around Antarctica with an upper bound salinity of ~34.845 g/kg. Our findings will contribute to planning future observing systems at Cape Darnley, determining the role CDBW plays in our global oceanic and climate systems, and modelling past and future climate scenarios

Foraging strategies of male Adélie penguins during their first incubation trip in relation to environmental conditions

Knowledge of habitat use by top marine predators in response to environmental conditions is crucial in the current context of global changes occurring in the Southern Ocean. We examined the at-sea locations of male Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding at Dumont d’Urville during their first, long incubation trip. Compared with the chick-rearing period, penguins performed longer trips, going to oceanic waters as far as 320 km from the colony. We observed 3 strategies: (1) five individuals covered large distances to the north, targeting open-ocean areas and following the currents of two persistent eddies; (2) five individuals foraged to the north-west, close to the Antarctic shelf slope at the limit of the pack ice; and (3) three individuals covered much shorter distances (northwards or eastwards). The foraging range also seemed to be limited by the body condition of the penguins before their departure to sea

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2-8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained

Projected land ice contributions to 21st century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained