Network Cosmology

Prediction and control of the dynamics of complex networks is a central problem in network science. Structural and dynamical similarities of different real networks suggest that some universal laws might accurately describe the dynamics of these networks, albeit the nature and common origin of such laws remain elusive. Here we show that the causal network representing the large-scale structure of spacetime in our accelerating universe is a power-law graph with strong clustering, similar to many complex networks such as the Internet, social, or biological networks. We prove that this structural similarity is a consequence of the asymptotic equivalence between the large-scale growth dynamics of complex networks and causal networks. This equivalence suggests that unexpectedly similar laws govern the dynamics of complex networks and spacetime in the universe, with implications to network science and cosmology

How achievable are COVID-19 clinical trial recruitment targets? A UK observational cohort study and trials registry analysis

OBJECTIVES: To analyse enrolment to interventional trials during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in England and describe the barriers to successful recruitment in the circumstance of a further wave or future pandemics. DESIGN: We analysed registered interventional COVID-19 trial data and concurrently did a prospective observational study of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 who were being assessed for eligibility to one of the RECOVERY, C19-ACS or SIMPLE trials. SETTING: Interventional COVID-19 trial data were analysed from the clinicaltrials.gov and International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number databases on 12 July 2020. The patient cohort was taken from five centres in a respiratory National Institute for Health Research network. Population and modelling data were taken from published reports from the UK government and Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit. PARTICIPANTS: 2082 consecutive admitted patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from 27 March 2020 were included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportions enrolled, and reasons for exclusion from the aforementioned trials. Comparisons of trial recruitment targets with estimated feasible recruitment numbers. RESULTS: Analysis of trial registration data for COVID-19 treatment studies enrolling in England showed that by 12 July 2020, 29 142 participants were needed. In the observational study, 430 (20.7%) proceeded to randomisation. 82 (3.9%) declined participation, 699 (33.6%) were excluded on clinical grounds, 363 (17.4%) were medically fit for discharge and 153 (7.3%) were receiving palliative care. With 111 037 people hospitalised with COVID-19 in England by 12 July 2020, we determine that 22 985 people were potentially suitable for trial enrolment. We estimate a UK hospitalisation rate of 2.38%, and that another 1.25 million infections would be required to meet recruitment targets of ongoing trials. CONCLUSIONS: Feasible recruitment rates, study design and proliferation of trials can limit the number, and size, that will successfully complete recruitment. We consider that fewer, more appropriately designed trials, prioritising cooperation between centres would maximise productivity in a further wave

Contributions of nitrogen deposition and forest regrowth to terrestrial carbon uptake

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The amount of reactive nitrogen deposited on land has doubled globally and become at least five-times higher in Europe, Eastern United States, and South East Asia since 1860 mostly because of increases in fertilizer production and fossil fuel burning. Because vegetation growth in the Northern Hemisphere is typically nitrogen-limited, increased nitrogen deposition could have an attenuating effect on rising atmospheric CO₂by stimulating the vegetation productivity and accumulation of carbon in biomass.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>This study shows that elevated nitrogen deposition would not significantly enhance land carbon uptake unless we consider its effects on re-growing forests. Our results suggest that nitrogen enriched land ecosystems sequestered 0.62–2.33 PgC in the 1980s and 0.75–2.21 PgC in the 1990s depending on the proportion and age of re-growing forests. During these two decades land ecosystems are estimated to have absorbed 13–41% of carbon emitted by fossil fuel burning.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although land ecosystems and especially forests with lifted nitrogen limitations have the potential to decelerate the rise of CO₂concentrations in the atmosphere, the effect is only significant over a limited period of time. The carbon uptake associated with forest re-growth and amplified by high nitrogen deposition will decrease as soon as the forests reach maturity. Therefore, assessments relying on carbon stored on land from enhanced atmospheric nitrogen deposition to balance fossil fuel emissions may be inaccurate.</p

Stationary Black Holes: Uniqueness and Beyond

The spectrum of known black-hole solutions to the stationary Einstein equations has been steadily increasing, sometimes in unexpected ways. In particular, it has turned out that not all black-hole-equilibrium configurations are characterized by their mass, angular momentum and global charges. Moreover, the high degree of symmetry displayed by vacuum and electro-vacuum black-hole spacetimes ceases to exist in self-gravitating non-linear field theories. This text aims to review some developments in the subject and to discuss them in light of the uniqueness theorem for the Einstein-Maxwell system.Comment: Major update of the original version by Markus Heusler from 1998. Piotr T. Chru\'sciel and Jo\~ao Lopes Costa succeeded to this review's authorship. Significantly restructured and updated all sections; changes are too numerous to be usefully described here. The number of references increased from 186 to 32

Nutrients cause grassland biomass to outpace herbivory

Human activities are transforming grassland biomass via changing climate, elemental nutrients, and herbivory. Theory predicts that food-limited herbivores will consume any additional biomass stimulated by nutrient inputs ('consumer-controlled'). Alternatively, nutrient supply is predicted to increase biomass where herbivores alter community composition or are limited by factors other than food ('resource-controlled'). Using an experiment replicated in 58 grasslands spanning six continents, we show that nutrient addition and vertebrate herbivore exclusion each caused sustained increases in aboveground live biomass over a decade, but consumer control was weak. However, at sites with high vertebrate grazing intensity or domestic livestock, herbivores consumed the additional fertilization-induced biomass, supporting the consumer-controlled prediction. Herbivores most effectively reduced the additional live biomass at sites with low precipitation or high ambient soil nitrogen. Overall, these experimental results suggest that grassland biomass will outstrip wild herbivore control as human activities increase elemental nutrient supply, with widespread consequences for grazing and fire risk

Elevated risk of stillbirth in males: systematic review and meta-analysis of more than 30 million births

Background Stillbirth rates have changed little over the last decade, and a high proportion of cases are unexplained. This meta-analysis examined whether there are inequalities in stillbirth risks according to sex. Methods A systematic review of the literature was conducted, and data were obtained on more than 30 million birth outcomes reported in observational studies. The pooled relative risk of stillbirth was estimated using random-effects models. Results The crude mean rate (stillbirths/1,000 total births) was 6.23 for males and 5.74 for females. The pooled relative risk was 1.10 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07-1.13). The attributable fraction in the whole population was 4.2% (95% CI: 3.70-4.63), and the attributable fraction among male fetuses was 7.8% (95% CI: 7.0-8.66). Study populations from countries with known sex-biased sex selection issues had anomalous stillbirth sex ratios and higher overall stillbirth risks than other countries, reflecting increased mortality among females. Conclusions Risk of stillbirth in males is elevated by about 10%. The population-attributable risk is comparable to smoking and equates to approximately 100,000 stillbirths per year globally. The pattern is consistent across countries of varying incomes. Given current difficulties in reducing stillbirth rates, work to understand the causes of excess male risk is warranted. We recommend that stillbirths are routinely recorded by sex. This will also assist in exposing prenatal sex selection as elevated or equal risks of stillbirth in females would be readily apparent and could therefore be used to trigger investigation

Reconstructing terrestrial nutrient cycling using stable nitrogen isotopes in wood

Although recent anthropogenic effects on the global nitrogen (N) cycle have been significant, the consequences of increased anthropogenic N on terrestrial ecosystems are unclear. Studies of the impact of increased reactive N on forest ecosystems—impacts on hydrologic and gaseous loss pathways, retention capacity, and even net primary productivity— have been particularly limited by a lack of long-term baseline biogeochemical data. Stable nitrogen isotope analysis (ratio of ¹⁵N to ¹⁴N, termed δ¹⁵N) of wood chronologies offers the potential to address changes in ecosystem N cycling on millennial timescales and across broad geographic regions. Currently, nearly 50 studies have been published utilizing wood δ¹⁵N records; however, there are significant differences in study design and data interpretation. Here, we identify four categories of wood δ¹⁵N studies, summarize the common themes and primary findings of each category, identify gaps in the spatial and temporal scope of current wood δ¹⁵N chronologies, and synthesize methodological frameworks for future research by presenting eight suggestions for common methodological approaches and enhanced integration across studies. Wood δ¹⁵N records have the potential to provide valuable information for interpreting modern biogeochemical cycling. This review serves to advance the utility of this technique for long-term biogeochemical reconstructions

Black Holes in Higher Dimensions

We review black hole solutions of higher-dimensional vacuum gravity, and of higher-dimensional supergravity theories. The discussion of vacuum gravity is pedagogical, with detailed reviews of Myers-Perry solutions, black rings, and solution-generating techniques. We discuss black hole solutions of maximal supergravity theories, including black holes in anti-de Sitter space. General results and open problems are discussed throughout.Comment: 76 pages, 14 figures; review article for Living Reviews in Relativity. v2: some improvements and refs adde

Phylogenetic Constraints Do Not Explain the Rarity of Nitrogen-Fixing Trees in Late-Successional Temperate Forests

Symbiotic nitrogen (N)-fixing trees are rare in late-successional temperate forests, even though these forests are often N limited. Two hypotheses could explain this paradox. The 'phylogenetic constraints hypothesis' states that no late-successional tree taxa in temperate forests belong to clades that are predisposed to N fixation. Conversely, the 'selective constraints hypothesis' states that such taxa are present, but N-fixing symbioses would lower their fitness. Here we test the phylogenetic constraints hypothesis.Using U.S. forest inventory data, we derived successional indices related to shade tolerance and stand age for N-fixing trees, non-fixing trees in the 'potentially N-fixing clade' (smallest angiosperm clade that includes all N fixers), and non-fixing trees outside this clade. We then used phylogenetically independent contrasts (PICs) to test for associations between these successional indices and N fixation. Four results stand out from our analysis of U.S. trees. First, N fixers are less shade-tolerant than non-fixers both inside and outside of the potentially N-fixing clade. Second, N fixers tend to occur in younger stands in a given geographical region than non-fixers both inside and outside of the potentially N-fixing clade. Third, the potentially N-fixing clade contains numerous late-successional non-fixers. Fourth, although the N fixation trait is evolutionarily conserved, the successional traits are relatively labile.These results suggest that selective constraints, not phylogenetic constraints, explain the rarity of late-successional N-fixing trees in temperate forests. Because N-fixing trees could overcome N limitation to net primary production if they were abundant, this study helps to understand the maintenance of N limitation in temperate forests, and therefore the capacity of this biome to sequester carbon