Global, regional, and national age–sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background—Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods—We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings—Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation—For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade

Comparing research investment to United Kingdom institutions and published outputs for tuberculosis, HIV and malaria: A systematic analysis across 1997-2013

Background: The "Unfinished Agenda" of infectious diseases is of great importance to policymakers and research funding agencies that require ongoing research evidence on their effective management. Journal publications help effectively share and disseminate research results to inform policy and practice. We assess research investments to United Kingdom institutions in HIV, tuberculosis and malaria, and analyse these by numbers of publications and citations and by disease and type of science. Methods: Information on infection-related research investments awarded to United Kingdom institutions across 1997-2010 were sourced from funding agencies and individually categorised by disease and type of science. Publications were sourced from the Scopus database via keyword searches and filtered to include only publications relating to human disease and containing a United Kingdom-based first and/or last author. Data were matched by disease and type of science categories. Investment (United Kingdom pounds) and publications were compared to generate an 'investment per publication' metric; similarly, an 'investment per citation' metric was also developed as a measure of the usefulness of research. Results: Total research investment for all three diseases was £1.4 billion, and was greatest for HIV (£651.4 million), followed by malaria (£518.7 million) and tuberculosis (£239.1 million). There were 17,271 included publications, with 9,322 for HIV, 4,451 for malaria, and 3,498 for tuberculosis. HIV publications received the most citations (254,949), followed by malaria (148,559) and tuberculosis (100,244). According to UK pound per publication, tuberculosis (£50,691) appeared the most productive for investment, compared to HIV (£61,971) and malaria (£94,483). By type of science, public health research was most productive for HIV (£27,296) and tuberculosis (£22,273), while phase I-III trials were most productive for malaria (£60,491). According to UK pound per citation, tuberculosis (£1,797) was the most productive area for investment, compared to HIV (£2,265) and malaria (£2,834). Public health research was the most productive type of science for HIV (£2,265) and tuberculosis (£1,797), whereas phase I-III trials were most productive for malaria (£1,713). Conclusions: When comparing total publications and citations with research investment to United Kingdom institutions, tuberculosis research appears to perform best in terms of efficiency. There were more public health-related publications and citations for HIV and tuberculosis than other types of science. These findings demonstrate the diversity of research funding and outputs, and provide new evidence to inform research investment strategies for policymakers, funders, academic institutions, and healthcare organizations.Infectious Disease Research Networ

National disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) for 257 diseases and injuries in Ethiopia, 1990–2015: findings from the global burden of disease study 2015

Background: Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) provide a summary measure of health and can be a critical input to guide health systems, investments, and priority-setting in Ethiopia. We aimed to determine the leading causes of premature mortality and disability using DALYs and describe the relative burden of disease and injuries in Ethiopia. Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for non-fatal disease burden, cause-specific mortality, and all-cause mortality to derive age-standardized DALYs by sex for Ethiopia for each year. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for each age group and sex. Causes of death by age, sex, and year were measured mainly using Causes of Death Ensemble modeling. To estimate YLDs, a Bayesian meta-regression method was used. We reported DALY rates per 100,000 for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disorders, non-communicable diseases, and injuries, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) for Ethiopia. Results: Non-communicable diseases caused 23,118.1 (95% UI, 17,124.4–30,579.6), CMNN disorders resulted in 20,200.7 (95% UI, 16,532.2–24,917.9), and injuries caused 3781 (95% UI, 2642.9–5500.6) age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 in Ethiopia in 2015. Lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, and tuberculosis were the top three leading causes of DALYs in 2015, accounting for 2998 (95% UI, 2173.7–4029), 2592.5 (95% UI, 1850.7–3495.1), and 2562.9 (95% UI, 1466.1–4220.7) DALYs per 100,000, respectively. Ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease were the fourth and fifth leading causes of age-standardized DALYs, with rates of 2535.7 (95% UI, 1603.7–3843.2) and 2159.9 (95% UI, 1369.7–3216.3) per 100,000, respectively. The following causes showed a reduction of 60% or more over the last 25 years: lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, tuberculosis, neonatal encephalopathy, preterm birth complications, meningitis, malaria, protein-energy malnutrition, iron-deficiency anemia, measles, war and legal intervention, and maternal hemorrhage

The respiratory research agenda in primary care in Portugal: a Delphi study

Background: A research agenda can help to stimulate and guide research. The International Primary Care Respiratory Group (IPCRG) published a Research Needs Statement (RNS) in 2010 in which 145 research questions were identified. In 2012, priorities for respiratory research were established, based on these questions. To date, there has been no statement on primary care respiratory research needs in Portugal. The aim of the study was to develop a national consensus on research priorities in respiratory diseases in primary care in Portugal and to assess the applicability of the priorities for respiratory research set by the IPCRG. Method: We conducted a Delphi study by electronic mail with a panel of experts on respiratory disease from primary and secondary care in Portugal. In the first round, the research needs in respiratory disease in Portugal were identified. In the second round, 196 research questions in six disease areas, derived from the first round and from the IPCRG Respiratory needs statement, were prioritised on a five-point Likert-type scale. In the third round, the questions were prioritized again with feed-back provided on the median scores for each item in the second round. Consensus was considered to have been reached when 80 % of the participants gave a score of 4 or 5 out of five on a given item. Results: The 40 experts identified 121 respiratory research questions in Round 1 and expressed their views on 196 questions in Rounds 2 and 3. Twelve research questions (6 %) reached consensus. There were five questions in the asthma domain on early diagnosis, pulmonary function tests, the use of inhalers, and adherence to treatment. There were four questions in the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease domain on vaccinations, on routine monitoring and evaluation of treatment, on diagnosis, and on adherence to treatments. There was one question in the smoking domain on the effects of brief counselling. There were two questions on respiratory tract infections on the treatment of children and on the prescription of antibiotics. An additional 23 research questions (12 %) achieved consensus between 75 and 79 %. Conclusion: The results reflect the Portuguese reality in response the international agenda for research on respiratory diseases published by the IPCRG. They can support the development of future respiratory disease research in Portugal.Financial support for this work was provided by FEDER funds through the Operational Programme Competitiveness Factors - COMPETE and National Funds through FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology under the project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007038; and by the project NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000013, supported by Norte Portugal Regional Operational Programme (NORTE 2020), under the PORTUGAL 2020 Partnership Agreement, through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). PMT is partially supported by a grant from the International Primary Care Respiratory Group

Improving the delivery of brief interventions for heavy drinking in primary health care: outcome results of the Optimizing Delivery of Health Care Intervention (ODHIN) five country cluster randomized factorial trial

Aims: To test if training and support of primary health care providers (PHCP), financial reimbursement to PHCP for screening and brief advice, and option for PHCP to refer screen positive patients to an internet-based method of giving advice (eBI) increases PHCP’s delivery of screening and advice to heavy drinkers, compared to a control group of PHCPs. Design: Cluster randomized factorial trial with 12-week implementation measurement period. Setting: Primary health care units (PHCU) in different locations throughout Catalonia, England, Netherlands, Poland and Sweden. Participants: 120 PHCU, 24 in each of Catalonia, England, Netherlands, Poland and Sweden. Interventions PHCUs were randomized to one of eight groups: care as usual, training and support (TS), financial reimbursement (FR), and eBI; paired combinations of TS, FR and eBI, and all of FR, TS and eBI. Outcome measures Primary outcome measures is proportion of eligible patients screened during a 12-week implementation period. Secondary outcome measures are proportion of screen positive patients advised; and, proportion of consulting adult patients given an intervention (screening and advice to screen positives) during the same 12-week implementation period. Results During a 4-week baseline measurement period, 5.9 (95% CI 3.4 to 8.4)per 100 adult patients consulting per PHCU were screened for their alcohol consumption. Based on the factorial design, PHCU that received TS had a 1.48 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.95)relatively higher proportion of patients screened during the 12-week implementation period than PHCU that did not receive TS; PHCU that received FR had a 2.00 (95% CI 1.56 to 2.56) relatively higher proportion than no FR. The option of referral to eBI did not have a higher proportion. A combination of TS plus FR had a 2.34 (95% CI 1.77 to 3.10) relatively higher proportion of patients screened than no TS plus FR. A combination of TS plus FR plus eBI had a 1.68 (95% CI 1.11 to 2.53) relatively higher proportion of patients screened than no TS plus FR plus eBI. Conclusions Training and support of PHCP, and financial reimbursement to PHCP for screening and brief advice increase the proportion of adult patients screened for their alcohol consumption, at least in the short term

Socio-economic factors, gender and smoking as determinants of COPD in a low-income country of sub-Saharan Africa: FRESH AIR Uganda.

In Uganda, biomass smoke seems to be the largest risk factor for the development of COPD, but socio-economic factors and gender may have a role. Therefore, more in-depth research is needed to understand the risk factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of socio-economic factors and gender differences on the COPD prevalence in Uganda. The population comprised 588 randomly selected participants (>30 years) who previously completed the FRESH AIR Uganda study. In this post hoc analysis, the impact of several socio-economic characteristics, gender and smoking on the prevalence of COPD was assessed using a logistic regression model. The main risk factors associated with COPD were non-Bantu ethnicity (odds ratio (OR) 1.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-2.82, P=0.030), biomass fuel use for heating (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.03-3.00, P=0.038), former smoker (OR 1.87, 95% CI 0.97-3.60, P=0.063) and being unmarried (OR 0.087, 95% CI 0.93-2.95, P=0.087). A substantial difference in the prevalence of COPD was seen between the two ethnic groups: non-Bantu 20% and Bantu 12.9%. Additional analysis between these two groups showed significant differences in socio-economic circumstances: non-Bantu people smoked more (57.7% vs 10.7%), lived in tobacco-growing areas (72% vs 14.8%) and were less educated (28.5% vs 12.9% had no education). With regard to gender, men with COPD were unmarried (OR 3.09, 95% CI 1.25-7.61, P=0.015) and used more biomass fuel for heating (OR 2.15, 95% CI 1.02-4.54, P=0.045), and women with COPD were former smokers (OR 3.35, 95% CI 1.22-9.22, P=0.019). Only a few socio-economic factors (i.e., smoking, biomass fuel use for heating, marital status and non-Bantu ethnicity) have been found to be associated with COPD. This applied for gender differences as well (i.e., for men, marital status and biomass fuel for heating, and for women being a former smoker). More research is needed to clarify the complexity of the different risk factors

Stage-specific proteomes from onchocerca ochengi, sister species of the human river blindness parasite, uncover adaptations to a nodular lifestyle

Despite 40 years of control efforts, onchocerciasis (river blindness) remains one of the most important neglected tropical diseases, with 17 million people affected. The etiological agent, Onchocerca volvulus, is a filarial nematode with a complex lifecycle involving several distinct stages in the definitive host and blackfly vector. The challenges of obtaining sufficient material have prevented high-throughput studies and the development of novel strategies for disease control and diagnosis. Here, we utilize the closest relative of O. volvulus, the bovine parasite Onchocerca ochengi, to compare stage-specific proteomes and host-parasite interactions within the secretome. We identified a total of 4260 unique O. ochengi proteins from adult males and females, infective larvae, intrauterine microfilariae, and fluid from intradermal nodules. In addition, 135 proteins were detected from the obligate Wolbachia symbiont. Observed protein families that were enriched in all whole body extracts relative to the complete search database included immunoglobulin-domain proteins, whereas redox and detoxification enzymes and proteins involved in intracellular transport displayed stage-specific overrepresentation. Unexpectedly, the larval stages exhibited enrichment for several mitochondrial-related protein families, including members of peptidase family M16 and proteins which mediate mitochondrial fission and fusion. Quantification of proteins across the lifecycle using the Hi-3 approach supported these qualitative analyses. In nodule fluid, we identified 94 O. ochengi secreted proteins, including homologs of transforming growth factor-β and a second member of a novel 6-ShK toxin domain family, which was originally described from a model filarial nematode (Litomosoides sigmodontis). Strikingly, the 498 bovine proteins identified in nodule fluid were strongly dominated by antimicrobial proteins, especially cathelicidins. This first high-throughput analysis of an Onchocerca spp. proteome across the lifecycle highlights its profound complexity and emphasizes the extremely close relationship between O. ochengi and O. volvulus The insights presented here provide new candidates for vaccine development, drug targeting and diagnostic biomarkers