Evaluation of modern and mid-Holocene seasonal precipitation of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in the CMIP5 simulations

We analyse the spatial expression of seasonal climates of the Mediterranean and northern Africa in pre-industrial (piControl) and mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6 yr BP) simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Modern observations show four distinct precipitation regimes characterized by differences in the seasonal distribution and total amount of precipitation: an equatorial band characterized by a double peak in rainfall, the monsoon zone characterized by summer rainfall, the desert characterized by low seasonality and total precipitation, and the Mediterranean zone characterized by summer drought. Most models correctly simulate the position of the Mediterranean and the equatorial climates in the piControl simulations, but overestimate the extent of monsoon influence and underestimate the extent of desert. However, most models fail to reproduce the amount of precipitation in each zone. Model biases in the simulated magnitude of precipitation are unrelated to whether the models reproduce the correct spatial patterns of each regime. In the midHolocene, the models simulate a reduction in winter rainfall in the equatorial zone, and a northward expansion of the monsoon with a significant increase in summer and autumn rainfall. Precipitation is slightly increased in the desert, mainly in summer and autumn, with northward expansion of the monsoon. Changes in the Mediterranean are small, although there is an increase in spring precipitation consistent with palaeo-observations of increased growing-season rainfall. Comparison with reconstructions shows most models underestimate the mid-Holocene changes in annual precipitation, except in the equatorial zone. Biases in the piControl have only a limited influence on midHolocene anomalies in ocean–atmosphere models; carbon-cycle models show no relationship between piControl bias and midHolocene anomalies. Biases in the prediction of the midHolocene monsoon expansion are unrelated to how well the models simulate changes in Mediterranean climate

Polygenic determinants of white matter volume derived from GWAS lack reproducibility in a replicate sample

A recent publication reported an exciting polygenic effect of schizophrenia (SCZ) risk variants, identified by a large genome-wide association study (GWAS), on total brain and white matter volumes in schizophrenic patients and, even more prominently, in healthy subjects. The aim of the present work was to replicate and then potentially extend these findings. According to the original publication, polygenic risk scores using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) information of SCZ GWAS (polygenic SCZ risk scores; PSS) were calculated in 122 healthy subjects, enrolled in a structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) study. These scores were computed based on P-values and odds ratios available through the Psychiatric GWAS Consortium. In addition, polygenic white matter scores (PWM) were calculated, using the respective SNP subset in the original publication. None of the polygenic scores, either PSS or PWM, were found to be associated with total brain, white matter or gray matter volume in our replicate sample. Minor differences between the original and the present study that might have contributed to lack of reproducibility (but unlikely explain it fully), are number of subjects, ethnicity, age distribution, array technology, SNP imputation quality and MRI scanner type. In contrast to the original publication, our results do not reveal the slightest signal of association of the described sets of GWAS-identified SCZ risk variants with brain volumes in adults. Caution is indicated in interpreting studies building on polygenic risk scores without replication sample

Revealing the last 13,500 years of environmental history from the multiproxy record of a mountain lake (Lago Enol, northern Iberian Peninsula)

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10933-009-9387-7.We present the Holocene sequence from Lago Enol (43°16′N, 4°59′W, 1,070 m a.s.l.), Cantabrian Mountains, northern Spain. A multiproxy analysis provided comprehensive information about regional humidity and temperature changes. The analysis included sedimentological descriptions, physical properties, organic carbon and carbonate content, mineralogy and geochemical composition together with biological proxies including diatom and ostracod assemblages. A detailed pollen study enabled reconstruction of variations in vegetation cover, which were interpreted in the context of climate changes and human impact. Four distinct stages were recognized for the last 13,500 years: (1) a cold and dry episode that includes the Younger Dryas event (13,500–11,600 cal. year BP); (2) a humid and warmer period characterizing the onset of the Holocene (11,600–8,700 cal. year BP); (3) a tendency toward a drier climate during the middle Holocene (8,700–4,650 cal. year BP); and (4) a return to humid conditions following landscape modification by human activity (pastoral activities, deforestation) in the late Holocene (4,650–2,200 cal. year BP). Superimposed on relatively stable landscape conditions (e.g. maintenance of well established forests), the typical environmental variability of the southern European region is observed at this site.The Spanish Inter-Ministry Commission of Science and Technology (CICYT), the Spanish National Parks agency, the European Commission, the Spanish Ministry of Science, and the European Social Fund

Revealing the last 13,500 years of environmental history from the multiproxy record of a mountain lake (Lago Enol, northern Iberian Peninsula)

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10933-009-9387-7.We present the Holocene sequence from Lago Enol (43°16′N, 4°59′W, 1,070 m a.s.l.), Cantabrian Mountains, northern Spain. A multiproxy analysis provided comprehensive information about regional humidity and temperature changes. The analysis included sedimentological descriptions, physical properties, organic carbon and carbonate content, mineralogy and geochemical composition together with biological proxies including diatom and ostracod assemblages. A detailed pollen study enabled reconstruction of variations in vegetation cover, which were interpreted in the context of climate changes and human impact. Four distinct stages were recognized for the last 13,500 years: (1) a cold and dry episode that includes the Younger Dryas event (13,500–11,600 cal. year BP); (2) a humid and warmer period characterizing the onset of the Holocene (11,600–8,700 cal. year BP); (3) a tendency toward a drier climate during the middle Holocene (8,700–4,650 cal. year BP); and (4) a return to humid conditions following landscape modification by human activity (pastoral activities, deforestation) in the late Holocene (4,650–2,200 cal. year BP). Superimposed on relatively stable landscape conditions (e.g. maintenance of well established forests), the typical environmental variability of the southern European region is observed at this site.The Spanish Inter-Ministry Commission of Science and Technology (CICYT), the Spanish National Parks agency, the European Commission, the Spanish Ministry of Science, and the European Social Fund

A multi-dating approach to age-modelling long continental records: The 135 ka El Cañizar de Villarquemado sequence (NE Spain)

We present the multidisciplinary dating approach - including radiocarbon, Uranium/Thorium series (U/Th), paleomagnetism, single-grain Optical Stimulated Luminescence (OSL), Infrared Stimulated Luminescence (IRSL) and tephrochronology - used for the development of an age model for the Cañizar de Villarquemado sequence (VIL) for the last ca. 135 ka. We describe the protocols used for each technique and discuss the positive and negative results, as well as their implications for interpreting the VIL sequence and for dating similar terrestrial records. In spite of the negative results of some techniques, particularly due to the absence of adequate sample material or inaccurate analytical precision, the multi-technique strategy employed here is essential to maximize the chances of obtaining robust age models in terrestrial sequences. The final Bayesian age model for VIL sequence includes 16 AMS 14C ages, 9 OSL ages and 5 previously published IRSL ages, and the accuracy and resolution of the model are improved by incorporating information related to changes in accumulation rate, as revealed by detailed sedimentological analyses. The main paleohydrological and vegetation changes in the sequence are coherent with global Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6 to 1 transitions since the penultimate Termination, although some regional idiosyncrasies are evident, such as higher moisture variability than expected, an abrupt inception of the last glacial cycle and a resilient response of vegetation in Mediterranean continental Iberia in both Terminations

Holocene climate variability, vegetation dynamics and fire regime in the central Pyrenees: the Basa de la Mora sequence (NE Spain)

High resolution multiproxy data (pollen, sedimentology, geochemistry, chironomids and charcoal) from the Basa de la Mora (BSM) lake sequence (42° 32′ N, 0° 19′ E, 1914 m a.s.l.) show marked climate variability in the central southern Pyrenees throughout the Holocene. A robust age model based on 15 AMS radiocarbon dates underpins the first precise reconstruction of rapid climate changes during the Holocene from this area. During the Early Holocene, increased winter snowpack and high snowmelt during summer, as a consequence of high seasonality, led to higher lake levels, a chironomid community dominated by non-lacustrine taxa (Orthocladiinae) related to higher inlet streams, and a forested landscape with intense run-off processes in the watershed. From 9.8 to 8.1 cal ka BP, climate instability is inferred from rapid and intense forest shifts and high fluctuation in surface run-off. Shifts among conifers and mesophytes reveal at least four short-lived dry events at 9.7, 9.3, 8.8 and 8.3 cal ka BP. Between 8.1 and 5.7 cal ka BP a stable climate with higher precipitation favoured highest lake levels and forest expansion, with spread of mesophytes, withdrawal of conifers and intensification of fires, coinciding with the Holocene Climate Optimum. At 5.7 cal ka BP a major change leading to drier conditions contributed to a regional decline in mesophytes, expansion of pines and junipers, and a significant lake level drop. Despite drier conditions, fire activity dropped as consequence of biomass reduction. Two arid intervals occurred between 2.9 and 2.4 cal ka BP and at 1.2–0.7 cal ka BP (800–1300 AD). The latter coincides with the Medieval Climate Anomaly and is one of the most arid phases of the Holocene in BSM sequence. Anthropogenic disturbances were small until 700 AD, when human pressure over landscape intensified, with Olea cultivation in the lowlands and significant deforestation in highlands. Colder and unfavourable weather conditions during the second part of the Little Ice Age caused a temporary cease of high-land management. The most intense anthropogenic disturbances occurred during the second half of 19th century. Last decades are characterized by recovery of the vegetation cover as a result of land abandonment, and lowered lake levels, probably due to higher temperatures

New insights into the neolithisation process in southwest Europe according to spatial density analysis from calibrated radiocarbon dates

The agricultural way of life spreads throughout Europe via two main routes: the Danube corridor and the Mediterranean basin. Current archaeological literature describes the arrival to the Western Mediterranean as a rapid process which involves both demic and cultural models, and in this regard, the dispersal movement has been investigated using mathematical models, where the key factors are time and space. In this work, we have created a compilation of all available radiocarbon dates for the whole of Iberia, in order to draw a chronological series of maps to illustrate temporal and spatial patterns in the neolithisation process. The maps were prepared by calculating the calibrated 14C date probability density curves, as a proxy to show the spatial dynamics of the last hunter-gatherers and first farmers. Several scholars have pointed out problems linked with the variability of samples, such as the overrepresentation of some sites, the degree of regional research, the nature of the dated samples and above all the archaeological context, but we are confident that the selected dates, after applying some filters and statistical protocols, constitute a good way to approach settlement spatial patterns in Iberia at the time of the neolithisation process