Survival and Neural Models for Private Equity Exit Prediction

Within the Private Equity (PE) market, the event of a private company undertaking an Initial Public Offering (IPO) is usually a very high-return one for the investors in the company. For this reason, an effective predictive model for the IPO event is considered as a valuable tool in the PE market, an endeavor in which publicly available quantitative information is generally scarce. In this paper, we describe a data-analytic procedure for predicting the probability with which a company will go public in a given forward period of time. The proposed method is based on the interplay of a neural network (NN) model for estimating the overall event probability, and Survival Analysis (SA) for further modeling the probability of the IPO event in any given interval of time. The proposed neuro-survival model is tuned and tested across nine industrial sectors using real data from the Thomson Reuters Eikon PE database

Nonlinear excitations in arrays of Bose-Einstein condensates

The dynamics of localized excitations in array of Bose-Einstein condensates is investigated in the framework of the nonlinear lattice theory. The existence of temporarily stable ground states displaying an atomic population distributions localized on very few lattice sites (intrinsic localized modes), as well as, of atomic population distributions involving many lattice sites (envelope solitons), is studied both numerically and analytically. The origin and properties of these modes are shown to be inherently connected with the interplay between macroscopic quantum tunnelling and nonlinearity induced self-trapping of atoms in coupled BECs. The phenomenon of Bloch oscillations of these excitations is studied both for zero and non zero backgrounds. We find that in a definite range of parameters, homogeneous distributions can become modulationally unstable. We also show that bright solitons and excitations of shock wave type can exist in BEC arrays even in the case of positive scattering length. Finally, we argue that BEC array with negative scattering length in presence of linear potentials can display collapse.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Portable lactate analyzer for measuring lactate in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and plasma ? method-comparison evaluations

Increased plasma lactate levels can indicate the presence of metabolic disorders in HIV infected individuals. Objective: To determine whether a portable analyzer is valid for measuring cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and plasma lactate levels in HIV infected individuals. Method: CSF and plasma were collected from 178 subjects. Samples tested by the Accutrend® portable analyzer were compared to those tested by a reference device (SYNCHRON LX® 20). Results: The portable analyzer had in plasma sensitivity of 0.95 and specificity 0.87. For CSF the specificity was 0.95; the sensitivity 0.33; the negative predictive value was 95% and the positive predictive value 33%. Conclusions: These findings support the validity of the portable analyzer in measuring lactate concentrations in CSF that fall within the normal range. The relatively poor positive predictive value indicates that a result above the reference range may represent a “false positive test”, and should be confirmed by the reference device before concluding abnormality

Stream diatom biodiversity in islands and continents—A global perspective on effects of area, isolation and environment

Aim The species-area relationship (SAR) is one of the most distinctive biogeographic patterns, but global comparisons of the SARs between island and mainland are lacking for microbial taxa. Here, we explore whether the form of the SAR and the drivers of species richness, including area, environmental heterogeneity, climate and physico-chemistry, differ between islands and similarly sized areas on mainland, referred to as continental area equivalents (CAEs). Location Global. Taxon Stream benthic diatoms. Methods We generated CAEs on six continental datasets and examined the SARs of CAEs and islands (ISAR). Then, we compared CAEs and islands in terms of total richness and richness of different ecological guilds. We tested the factors contributing to richness in islands and CAEs with regressions. We used structural equation models to determine the effects of area versus environmental heterogeneity, climate and local conditions on species richness. Results We found a non-significant ISAR, but a significant positive SAR in CAEs. Richness in islands was related to productivity. Richness in CAEs was mainly dependent on area and climate, but not directly on environmental heterogeneity. Species richness within guilds exhibited inconsistent relationships with island isolation and area. Main conclusions Ecological and evolutionary processes shaping diatom island biogeography do not depend on area at the worldwide scale probably due to the presence of distinct species pool across islands. Conversely, area was an important driver of diatom richness in continents, and this effect could be attributed to dispersal. Continents had greater richness than islands, but this was a consequence of differences in environmental conditions such as specific island climatic conditions. We stress the need for more island data on benthic diatoms, particularly from archipelagos, to better understand the biogeography of this most speciose group of algae

Chemokines in cerebrospinal fluid correlate with cerebral metabolite patterns in HIV-infected individuals

Chemokines influence HIV neuropathogenesis by affecting the HIV life cycle, trafficking of macrophages into the nervous system, glial activation, and neuronal signaling and repair processes; however, knowledge of their relationship to in vivo measures of cerebral injury is limited. The primary objective of this study was to determine the relationship between a panel of chemokines in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and cerebral metabolites measured by proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) in a cohort of HIV-infected individuals. One hundred seventy-one stored CSF specimens were assayed from HIV-infected individuals who were enrolled in two ACTG studies that evaluated the relationship between neuropsychological performance and cerebral metabolites. Concentrations of six chemokines (fractalkine, IL-8, IP-10, MCP-1, MIP-1β, and SDF-1) were measured and compared with cerebral metabolites individually and as composite neuronal, basal ganglia, and inflammatory patterns. IP-10 and MCP-1 were the chemokines most strongly associated with individual cerebral metabolites. Specifically, (1) higher IP-10 levels correlated with lower N-acetyl aspartate (NAA)/creatine (Cr) ratios in the frontal white matter and higher MI/Cr ratios in all three brain regions considered and (2) higher MCP-1 levels correlated with lower NAA/Cr ratios in frontal white matter and the parietal cortex. IP-10, MCP-1, and IL-8 had the strongest associations with patterns of cerebral metabolites. In particular, higher levels of IP-10 correlated with lower neuronal pattern scores and higher basal ganglia and inflammatory pattern scores, the same pattern which has been associated with HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND). Subgroup analysis indicated that the effects of IP-10 and IL-8 were influenced by effective antiretroviral therapy and that memantine treatment may mitigate the neuronal effects of IP-10. This study supports the role of chemokines in HAND and the validity of MRS as an assessment tool. In particular, the findings identify relationships between the immune response—particularly an interferon-inducible chemokine, IP-10—and cerebral metabolites and suggest that antiretroviral therapy and memantine modify the impact of the immune response on neurons

Genome-wide association analysis of dementia and its clinical endophenotypes reveal novel loci associated with Alzheimer's disease and three causality networks: The GR@ACE project

Introduction: Large variability among Alzheimer's disease (AD) cases might impact genetic discoveries and complicate dissection of underlying biological pathways. Methods: Genome Research at Fundacio ACE (GR@ACE) is a genome-wide study of dementia and its clinical endophenotypes, defined based on AD's clinical certainty and vascular burden. We assessed the impact of known AD loci across endophenotypes to generate loci categories. We incorporated gene coexpression data and conducted pathway analysis per category. Finally, to evaluate the effect of heterogeneity in genetic studies, GR@ACE series were meta-analyzed with additional genome-wide association study data sets. Results: We classified known AD loci into three categories, which might reflect the disease clinical heterogeneity. Vascular processes were only detected as a causal mechanism in probable AD. The meta-analysis strategy revealed the ANKRD31-rs4704171 and NDUFAF6-rs10098778 and confirmed SCIMP-rs7225151 and CD33-rs3865444. Discussion: The regulation of vasculature is a prominent causal component of probable AD. GR@ACE meta-analysis revealed novel AD genetic signals, strongly driven by the presence of clinical heterogeneity in the AD series

Clinical reporting following the quantification of cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease: An international overview

Introduction: The current practice of quantifying cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers as an aid in the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) varies from center to center. For a same biochemical profile, interpretation and reporting of results may differ, which can lead to misunderstandings and raises questions about the commutability of tests. Methods: We obtained a description of (pre-)analytical protocols and sample reports from 40 centers worldwide. A consensus approach allowed us to propose harmonized comments corresponding to the different CSF biomarker profiles observed in patients. Results: The (pre-)analytical procedures were similar between centers. There was considerable heterogeneity in cutoff definitions and report comments. We therefore identified and selected by consensus the most accurate and informative comments regarding the interpretation of CSF biomarkers in the context of AD diagnosis. Discussion: This is the first time that harmonized reports are proposed across worldwide specialized laboratories involved in the biochemical diagnosis of AD

Common variants in Alzheimer's disease and risk stratification by polygenic risk scores.

Funder: Funder: Fundación bancaria ‘La Caixa’ Number: LCF/PR/PR16/51110003 Funder: Grifols SA Number: LCF/PR/PR16/51110003 Funder: European Union/EFPIA Innovative Medicines Initiative Joint Number: 115975 Funder: JPco-fuND FP-829-029 Number: 733051061Genetic discoveries of Alzheimer's disease are the drivers of our understanding, and together with polygenetic risk stratification can contribute towards planning of feasible and efficient preventive and curative clinical trials. We first perform a large genetic association study by merging all available case-control datasets and by-proxy study results (discovery n = 409,435 and validation size n = 58,190). Here, we add six variants associated with Alzheimer's disease risk (near APP, CHRNE, PRKD3/NDUFAF7, PLCG2 and two exonic variants in the SHARPIN gene). Assessment of the polygenic risk score and stratifying by APOE reveal a 4 to 5.5 years difference in median age at onset of Alzheimer's disease patients in APOE ɛ4 carriers. Because of this study, the underlying mechanisms of APP can be studied to refine the amyloid cascade and the polygenic risk score provides a tool to select individuals at high risk of Alzheimer's disease