Zooplankton carcasses and non-predatory mortality in freshwater and inland sea environments

Zooplankton carcasses are ubiquitous in marine and freshwater systems, implicating the importance of non-predatory mortality, but both are often overlooked in ecological studies compared with predatory mortality. The development of several microscopic methods allows the distinction between live and dead zooplankton in field samples, and the reported percentages of dead zooplankton average 11.6 (minimum) to 59.8 (maximum) in marine environments, and 7.4 (minimum) to 47.6 (maximum) in fresh and inland waters. Common causes of non-predatory mortality among zooplankton include senescence, temperature change, physical and chemical stresses, parasitism and food-related factors. Carcasses resulting from non-predatory mortality may undergo decomposition leading to an increase in microbial production and a shift in microbial composition in the water column. Alternatively, sinking carcasses may contribute significantly to vertical carbon flux especially outside the phytoplankton growth seasons, and become a food source for the benthos. Global climate change is already altering freshwater ecosystems on multiple levels, and likely will have significant positive or negative effects on zooplankton non-predatory mortality. Better spatial and temporal studies of zooplankton carcasses and non-predatory mortality rates will improve our understanding of this important but under-appreciated topic

Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes

The physical response of lakes to climate warming is regionally variable and highly dependent on individual lake characteristics, making generalizations about their development difficult. To qualify the role of individual lake characteristics in their response to regionally homogeneous warming, we simulated temperature, ice cover, and mixing in four intensively studied German lakes of varying morphology and mixing regime with a one-dimensional lake model. We forced the model with an ensemble of 12 climate projections (RCP4.5) up to 2100. The lakes were projected to warm at 0.10–0.11&thinsp;∘C&thinsp;decade−1, which is 75&thinsp;%–90&thinsp;% of the projected air temperature trend. In simulations, surface temperatures increased strongly in winter and spring, but little or not at all in summer and autumn. Mean bottom temperatures were projected to increase in all lakes, with steeper trends in winter and in shallower lakes. Modelled ice thaw and summer stratification advanced by 1.5–2.2 and 1.4–1.8 days&thinsp;decade−1 respectively, whereas autumn turnover and winter freeze timing was less sensitive. The projected summer mixed-layer depth was unaffected by warming but sensitive to changes in water transparency. By mid-century, the frequency of ice and stratification-free winters was projected to increase by about 20&thinsp;%, making ice cover rare and shifting the two deeper dimictic lakes to a predominantly monomictic regime. The polymictic lake was unlikely to become dimictic by the end of the century. A sensitivity analysis predicted that decreasing transparency would dampen the effect of warming on mean temperature but amplify its effect on stratification. However, this interaction was only predicted to occur in clear lakes, and not in the study lakes at their historical transparency. Not only lake morphology, but also mixing regime determines how heat is stored and ultimately how lakes respond to climate warming. Seasonal differences in climate warming rates are thus important and require more attention.</p

Numerical study on the response of the largest lake in China to climate change

Lakes are sensitive indicators of climate change. There are thousands of lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), and more than 1200 of them have an area larger than 1&thinsp;km2; they respond quickly to climate change, but few observation data of lakes are available. Therefore, the thermal condition of the plateau lakes under the background of climate warming remains poorly understood. In this study, the China regional surface meteorological feature dataset developed by the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (ITPCAS), MODIS lake surface temperature (LST) data and buoy observation data were used to evaluate the performance of lake model FLake, extended by simple parameterizations of the salinity effect, for brackish lake and to reveal the response of thermal conditions, radiation and heat balance of Qinghai Lake to the recent climate change. The results demonstrated that the FLake has good ability in capturing the seasonal variations in the lake surface temperature and the internal thermal structure of Qinghai Lake. The simulated lake surface temperature showed an increasing trend from 1979 to 2012, positively correlated with the air temperature and the downward longwave radiation while negatively correlated with the wind speed and downward shortwave radiation. The simulated internal thermodynamic structure revealed that Qinghai Lake is a dimictic lake with two overturn periods occurring in late spring and late autumn. The surface and mean water temperatures of the lake significantly increased from 1979 to 2012, while the bottom temperatures showed no significant trend, even decreasing slightly from 1989 to 2012. The warming was the strongest in winter for both the lake surface and air temperature. With the warming of the climate, the later ice-on and earlier ice-off trend was simulated in the lake, significantly influencing the interannual and seasonal variability in radiation and heat flux. The annual average net shortwave radiation and latent heat flux (LH) both increase obviously while the net longwave radiation and sensible heat flux (SH) decrease slightly. Earlier ice-off leads to more energy absorption mainly in the form of shortwave radiation during the thawing period, and later ice-on leads to more energy release in the form of longwave radiation, SH and LH during the ice formation period. Meanwhile, the lake–air temperature difference increased in both periods due to shortening ice duration.</p

Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes

Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime

Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °Cair–1, –0.033 m °Cair–1 and –9.7 d °Cair–1, respectively). These impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide

The extent and variability of storm-induced temperature changes in lakes measured with long-term and high-frequency data

The intensity and frequency of storms are projected to increase in many regions of the world because of climate change. Storms can alter environmental conditions in many ecosystems. In lakes and reservoirs, storms can reduce epilimnetic temperatures from wind-induced mixing with colder hypolimnetic waters, direct precipitation to the lake's surface, and watershed runoff. We analyzed 18 long-term and high-frequency lake datasets from 11 countries to assess the magnitude of wind- vs. rainstorm-induced changes in epilimnetic temperature. We found small day-to-day epilimnetic temperature decreases in response to strong wind and heavy rain during stratified conditions. Day-to-day epilimnetic temperature decreased, on average, by 0.28 degrees C during the strongest windstorms (storm mean daily wind speed among lakes: 6.7 +/- 2.7 m s(-1), 1 SD) and by 0.15 degrees C after the heaviest rainstorms (storm mean daily rainfall: 21.3 +/- 9.0 mm). The largest decreases in epilimnetic temperature were observed >= 2 d after sustained strong wind or heavy rain (top 5(th) percentile of wind and rain events for each lake) in shallow and medium-depth lakes. The smallest decreases occurred in deep lakes. Epilimnetic temperature change from windstorms, but not rainstorms, was negatively correlated with maximum lake depth. However, even the largest storm-induced mean epilimnetic temperature decreases were typicallyPeer reviewe

Atmospheric stilling leads to prolonged thermal stratification in a large shallow polymictic lake

To quantify the effects of recent and potential future decreases in surface wind speeds on lake thermal stratification, we apply the one-dimensional process-based model MyLake to a large, shallow, polymictic lake, Võrtsjärv. The model is validated for a 3-year period and run separately for 28 years using long-term daily atmospheric forcing data from a nearby meteorological station. Model simulations show exceptionally good agreement with observed surface and bottom water temperatures during the 3-year period. Similarly, simulated surface water temperatures for 28 years show remarkably good agreement with long-term in situ water temperatures. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that decreasing wind speeds has resulted in substantial changes in stratification dynamics since 1982, while increasing air temperatures during the same period had a negligible effect. Atmospheric stilling is a phenomenon observed globally, and in addition to recent increases in surface air temperature, needs to be considered when evaluating the influence of climate change on lake ecosystems

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide : the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.Peer reviewe

Contribution of oxic methane production to surface methane emission in lakes and its global importance

Recent discovery of oxic methane production in sea and lake waters, as well as wetlands demands re-thinking of the global methane cycle and re-assessment of the contribution of oxic waters to atmospheric methane emission. Here we analysed system-wide sources and sinks of surface-water methane in a temperate lake. Using a mass balance analysis, we show that internal methane production in well-oxygenated surface water is an important source for surface-water methane during the stratified period. Combining our results and literature reports, oxic methane contribution to emission follows a predictive function of littoral sediment area and surface mixed layer volume. The contribution of oxic methane source(s) is predicted to increase with lake size, accounting for the majority (>50 %) of surface methane emission for lakes with surface areas >1 km2

Simulation of surface energy fluxes and stratification of a small boreal lake by a set of one-dimensional models

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