The Epidemiology of HIV-1 Transmitted Drug Resistance

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was first discovered in 1983. In 2009, it was estimated that 33.3 (31.4 -35.3) million individuals are infected with HIV worldwide. In that year 1.8 (1.6-2.1) million people died from HIV. Although the virus continues to spread, the number of new infections has fallen from an estimated 3.2 (3.0 -3.5) million in 1997 to 2.6 (2.3 – 2.8) million in 2009. There are several explanations for this decrease. First, the use of antiretrovirals has slowed down the epidemic by suppressing viral replication and thereby the HIV RNA load [2]. This RNA load is a key factor in determining transmissibility of HIV. Second, sexual risk behaviour has decreased in most countries. Third, HIV prevalence follows an ‘S’ curve, like any infectious disease where it start slowly and gradually. In the final phase of the epidemic, people are either no longer infectious (due to effective treatment) or deaths outnumber new cases, so that the total number alive and infected passes its peak and begin to decline or reach a plateau. The majority of new HIV infections continue to occur in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, an estimated 1.8 (1.6 -2.0) million people were newly infected in 2009 and 22.5 million (20.9 -24.2) people were living with HIV in this region (figure 1). In Europe, the HIV-1 epidemic is much smaller, with an estimated 130,000 (110,000-160,000) newly infected in Western and Central Europe in 2009. This results in 820,000 (720,000-910,000) individuals living with HIV-1 and a prevalence of 0.2% in this region

Comparison of HIV-1 Genotypic Resistance Test Interpretation Systems in Predicting Virological Outcomes Over Time

Background: Several decision support systems have been developed to interpret HIV-1 drug resistance genotyping results. This study compares the ability of the most commonly used systems (ANRS, Rega, and Stanford's HIVdb) to predict virological outcome at 12, 24, and 48 weeks. Methodology/Principal Findings: Included were 3763 treatment-change episodes (TCEs) for which a HIV-1 genotype was available at the time of changing treatment with at least one follow-up viral load measurement. Genotypic susceptibility scores for the active regimens were calculated using scores defined by each interpretation system. Using logistic regression, we determined the association between the genotypic susceptibility score and proportion of TCEs having an undetectable viral load (<50 copies/ml) at 12 (8-16) weeks (2152 TCEs), 24 (16-32) weeks (2570 TCEs), and 48 (44-52) weeks (1083 TCEs). The Area under the ROC curve was calculated using a 10-fold cross-validation to compare the different interpretation systems regarding the sensitivity and specificity for predicting undetectable viral load. The mean genotypic susceptibility score of the systems was slightly smaller for HIVdb, with 1.92±1.17, compared to Rega and ANRS, with 2.22±1.09 and 2.23±1.05, respectively. However, similar odds ratio's were found for the association between each-unit increase in genotypic susceptibility score and undetectable viral load at week 12; 1.6 [95% confidence interval 1.5-1.7] for HIVdb, 1.7 [1.5-1.8] for ANRS, and 1.7 [1.9-1.6] for Rega. Odds ratio's increased over time, but remained comparable (odds ratio's ranging between 1.9-2.1 at 24 weeks and 1.9-2.

Increase in transmitted resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors among newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections in Europe

Background: One out of ten newly diagnosed patients in Europe was infected with a virus carrying a drug resistant mutation. We analysed the patterns over time for transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) using data from the European Spread program.Methods: Clinical, epidemiological and virological data from 4317 patients newly diagnosed with HIV-1 infection between 2002 and 2007 were analysed. Patients were enrolled using a pre-defined sampling strategy.Results: The overall prevalence of TDRM in this period was 8.9% (95% CI: 8.1-9.8). Interestingly, significant changes over time in TDRM caused by the different drug classes were found. Whereas nucleoside resistance mutations remained constant at 5%, a significant decline in protease inhibitors resistance mutations was observed, from 3.9% in 2002 to 1.6% in 2007 (p = 0.001). In contrast, resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) doubled from 2.0% in 2002 to 4.1% in 2007 (p = 0.004) with 58% of viral strains carrying a K103N mutation. Phylogenetic analysis showed that these temporal changes could not be explained by large clusters of TDRM.Conclusion: During the years 2002 to 2007 transmitted resistance to NNRTI has doubled to 4% in Europe. The frequent use of NNRTI in first-line regimens and the clinical impact of NNRTI mutations warrants continued monitoring

Patterns of transmitted HIV drug resistance in Europe vary by risk group

Background: In Europe, a continuous programme (SPREAD) has been in place for ten years to study transmission of drug resistant HIV. We analysed time trends of transmitted drug resistance mutations (TDRM) in relation to the risk behaviour reported. Methods: HIV-1 patients newly diagnosed in 27 countries from 2002 through 2007 were included. Inclusion was representative for risk group and geographical distribution in the participating countries in Europe. Trends over time were calculated by logistic regression. Results: From the 4317 patients included, the majority was men-having-sex-with-men -MSM (2084, 48%), followed by heterosexuals (1501, 35%) and injection drug users (IDU) (355, 8%). MSM were more often from Western Europe origin, infected with subtype B virus, and recently infected (<1 year) (p<0.001). The prevalence of TDRM was highest in MSM (prevalence of 11.1%), followed by heterosexuals (6.6%) and IDU (5.1%, p<0.001). TDRM was predominantly ascribed to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) with a prevalence of 6.6% in MSM, 3.3% in heterosexuals and 2.0% in IDU (p = 0.001). A significant increase in resistance to non- nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) and a decrease in resistance to protease inhibitors was observed in MSM (p = 0.008 and p = 0.006, respectively), but not in heterosexual patients (p = 0.68 and p = 0.14, respectively). Conclusions: MSM showed to have significantly higher TDRM prevalence compared to heterosexuals and IDU. The increasing NNRTI resistance in MSM is likely to negatively influence the therapy response of first-line therapy, as most include NNRTI drugs

Limited cross-border infections in patients newly diagnosed with HIV in Europe

Matti Ristola ja Jussi Sutinen kuuluvat työryhmään SPREAD ProgrammePeer reviewe

Increase in transmitted resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors among newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections in Europe

Matti A Ristola on SPREAD Programme -työryhmän jäsen.Peer reviewe