Capital Structure Decisions: Which Factors are Reliably Important?

This paper examines the relative importance of many factors in the capital structure decisions of publicly traded American firms from 1950 to 2003. The most reliable factors for explaining market leverage are: median industry leverage (+ effect on leverage), market-to-book assets ratio (−), tangibility (+), profits (−), log of assets (+), and expected inflation (+). In addition, we find that dividend-paying firms tend to have lower leverage. When considering book leverage, somewhat similar effects are found. However, for book leverage, the impact of firm size, the market-to-book ratio, and the effect of inflation are not reliable. The empirical evidence seems reasonably consistent with some versions of the trade-off theory of capital structure.Capital structure; Pecking order; Tradeoff theory; market timing; multiple imputation.

Behavioral Machine Learning? Computer Predictions of Corporate Earnings also Overreact

There is considerable evidence that machine learning algorithms have better predictive abilities than humans in various financial settings. But, the literature has not tested whether these algorithmic predictions are more rational than human predictions. We study the predictions of corporate earnings from several algorithms, notably linear regressions and a popular algorithm called Gradient Boosted Regression Trees (GBRT). On average, GBRT outperformed both linear regressions and human stock analysts, but it still overreacted to news and did not satisfy rational expectation as normally defined. By reducing the learning rate, the magnitude of overreaction can be minimized, but it comes with the cost of poorer out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Human stock analysts who have been trained in machine learning methods overreact less than traditionally trained analysts. Additionally, stock analyst predictions reflect information not otherwise available to machine algorithms.Comment: stock analysts, machine learning, behavioral, overreactio

Capital Structure Decisions: Which Factors are Reliably Important?

This paper examines the relative importance of many factors in the capital structure decisions of publicly traded American firms from 1950 to 2003. The most reliable factors for explaining market leverage are: median industry leverage (+ effect on leverage), market-to-book assets ratio (−), tangibility (+), profits (−), log of assets (+), and expected inflation (+). In addition, we find that dividend-paying firms tend to have lower leverage. When considering book leverage, somewhat similar effects are found. However, for book leverage, the impact of firm size, the market-to-book ratio, and the effect of inflation are not reliable. The empirical evidence seems reasonably consistent with some versions of the trade-off theory of capital structure

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

OBJECTIVE: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland. METHODS: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted. RESULTS: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity

The effects of symmetry on the dynamics of antigenic variation

In the studies of dynamics of pathogens and their interactions with a host immune system, an important role is played by the structure of antigenic variants associated with a pathogen. Using the example of a model of antigenic variation in malaria, we show how many of the observed dynamical regimes can be explained in terms of the symmetry of interactions between different antigenic variants. The results of this analysis are quite generic, and have wider implications for understanding the dynamics of immune escape of other parasites, as well as for the dynamics of multi-strain diseases.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures; J. Math. Biol. (2012), Online Firs

The eclipsing LMC star OGLE05155332--6925581: a clue for Double Periodic Variables

We investigate the nature of OGLE05155332-6925581, one of the brightest members of the enigmatic group of Double Periodic Variables (DPVs) recently found in the Magellanic Clouds. The modeling of archival orbital light curves (LCs), along with the analysis of the radial velocities suggest that this object is a semi--detached binary with the less massive star transferring matter to the more massive and less evolved star, in an Algol--like configuration. We find evidence for additional orbital variability and H$\alpha$ emission, likely caused by an accretion disc around the primary star. As in the case of $\beta Lyr$ the circumprimary disc seems to be more luminous than the primary, but we do not detect orbital period changes. We find that the LC follows a loop in the color--magnitude diagram during the long cycle; the system is redder when brighter and the rising phase is bluer than during decline. Infrared excess is also present. The source of the long--term periodicity is not eclipsed, indicating its circumbinary origin. Strong asymmetries, discrete absorption components (DACs) and a $\gamma$ shift are new and essential observational properties in the infrared H I lines. The DACs strength and RV follow a saw--teeth pattern during the orbital cycle. We suggest that the system experiences supercycles of mass outflow feeding a circumbinary disc. Mass exchange and mass loss could produce comparable but opposite effects in the orbital period on a long time scale, resulting in a quasi--constancy of this parameter.Comment: submitted to MNRA

Parent-of-origin-specific allelic associations among 106 genomic loci for age at menarche.

Age at menarche is a marker of timing of puberty in females. It varies widely between individuals, is a heritable trait and is associated with risks for obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer and all-cause mortality. Studies of rare human disorders of puberty and animal models point to a complex hypothalamic-pituitary-hormonal regulation, but the mechanisms that determine pubertal timing and underlie its links to disease risk remain unclear. Here, using genome-wide and custom-genotyping arrays in up to 182,416 women of European descent from 57 studies, we found robust evidence (P < 5 × 10(-8)) for 123 signals at 106 genomic loci associated with age at menarche. Many loci were associated with other pubertal traits in both sexes, and there was substantial overlap with genes implicated in body mass index and various diseases, including rare disorders of puberty. Menarche signals were enriched in imprinted regions, with three loci (DLK1-WDR25, MKRN3-MAGEL2 and KCNK9) demonstrating parent-of-origin-specific associations concordant with known parental expression patterns. Pathway analyses implicated nuclear hormone receptors, particularly retinoic acid and γ-aminobutyric acid-B2 receptor signalling, among novel mechanisms that regulate pubertal timing in humans. Our findings suggest a genetic architecture involving at least hundreds of common variants in the coordinated timing of the pubertal transition

A comprehensive laboratory study on the immersion freezing behavior of illite NX particles: A comparison of 17 ice nucleation measurement techniques

Immersion freezing is the most relevant heterogeneous ice nucleation mechanism through which ice crystals are formed in mixed-phase clouds. In recent years, an increasing number of laboratory experiments utilizing a variety of instruments have examined immersion freezing activity of atmospherically relevant ice-nucleating particles. However, an intercomparison of these laboratory results is a difficult task because investigators have used different ice nucleation (IN) measurement methods to produce these results. A remaining challenge is to explore the sensitivity and accuracy of these techniques and to understand how the IN results are potentially influenced or biased by experimental parameters associated with these techniques. \u3c br\u3e \u3c br\u3e Within the framework of INUIT (Ice Nuclei Research Unit), we distributed an illite-rich sample (illite NX) as a representative surrogate for atmospheric mineral dust particles to investigators to perform immersion freezing experiments using different IN measurement methods and to obtain IN data as a function of particle concentration, temperature ( \u3c i\u3e T ), cooling rate and nucleation time. A total of 17 measurement methods were involved in the data intercomparison. Experiments with seven instruments started with the test sample pre-suspended in water before cooling, while 10 other instruments employed water vapor condensation onto dry-dispersed particles followed by immersion freezing. The resulting comprehensive immersion freezing data set was evaluated using the ice nucleation active surface-site density, \u3c i\u3e n s, to develop a representative \u3c i\u3e n s( \u3c i\u3e T ) spectrum that spans a wide temperature range (g\u2737 °C \u3c \u3c i\u3e T \u3c g\u2711 °C) and covers 9 orders of magnitude in \u3c i\u3e n s. \u3c br\u3e \u3c br\u3e In general, the 17 immersion freezing measurement techniques deviate, within a range of about 8 °C in terms of temperature, by 3 orders of magnitude with respect to \u3c i\u3e n s. In addition, we show evidence that the immersion freezing efficiency expressed in \u3c i\u3e n s of illite NX particles is relatively independent of droplet size, particle mass in suspension, particle size and cooling rate during freezing. A strong temperature dependence and weak time and size dependence of the immersion freezing efficiency of illite-rich clay mineral particles enabled the \u3c i\u3e n s parameterization solely as a function of temperature. We also characterized the \u3c i\u3e n s( \u3c i\u3e T ) spectra and identified a section with a steep slope between g\u2720 and g\u2727 °C, where a large fraction of active sites of our test dust may trigger immersion freezing. This slope was followed by a region with a gentler slope at temperatures below g\u2727 °C. While the agreement between different instruments was reasonable below ∼ g\u2727 °C, there seemed to be a different trend in the temperature-dependent ice nucleation activity from the suspension and dry-dispersed particle measurements for this mineral dust, in particular at higher temperatures. For instance, the ice nucleation activity expressed in \u3c i\u3e n s was smaller for the average of the wet suspended samples and higher for the average of the dry-dispersed aerosol samples between about g\u2727 and g\u2718 °C. Only instruments making measurements with wet suspended samples were able to measure ice nucleation above g\u2718°C. A possible explanation for the deviation between g\u2727 and g\u2718 °C is discussed. Multiple exponential distribution fits in both linear and log space for both specific surface area-based \u3c i\u3e n s( \u3c i\u3e T ) and geometric surface area-based \u3c i\u3e n s( \u3c i\u3e T ) are provided. These new fits, constrained by using identical reference samples, will help to compare IN measurement methods that are not included in the present study and IN data from future IN instruments

Disordered microbial communities in asthmatic airways.

A rich microbial environment in infancy protects against asthma [1], [2] and infections precipitate asthma exacerbations [3]. We compared the airway microbiota at three levels in adult patients with asthma, the related condition of COPD, and controls. We also studied bronchial lavage from asthmatic children and controls.We identified 5,054 16S rRNA bacterial sequences from 43 subjects, detecting >70% of species present. The bronchial tree was not sterile, and contained a mean of 2,000 bacterial genomes per cm(2) surface sampled. Pathogenic Proteobacteria, particularly Haemophilus spp., were much more frequent in bronchi of adult asthmatics or patients with COPD than controls. We found similar highly significant increases in Proteobacteria in asthmatic children. Conversely, Bacteroidetes, particularly Prevotella spp., were more frequent in controls than adult or child asthmatics or COPD patients.The results show the bronchial tree to contain a characteristic microbiota, and suggest that this microbiota is disturbed in asthmatic airways