A mathematical model for optimizing the indications of liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract Background The criteria for organ sharing has developed a system that prioritizes liver transplantation (LT) for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who have the highest risk of wait-list mortality. In some countries this model allows patients only within the Milan Criteria (MC, defined by the presence of a single nodule up to 5 cm, up to three nodules none larger than 3 cm, with no evidence of extrahepatic spread or macrovascular invasion) to be evaluated for liver transplantation. This police implies that some patients with HCC slightly more advanced than those allowed by the current strict selection criteria will be excluded, even though LT for these patients might be associated with acceptable long-term outcomes. Methods We propose a mathematical approach to study the consequences of relaxing the MC for patients with HCC that do not comply with the current rules for inclusion in the transplantation candidate list. We consider overall 5-years survival rates compatible with the ones reported in the literature. We calculate the best strategy that would minimize the total mortality of the affected population, that is, the total number of people in both groups of HCC patients that die after 5 years of the implementation of the strategy, either by post-transplantation death or by death due to the basic HCC. We illustrate the above analysis with a simulation of a theoretical population of 1,500 HCC patients with tumor size exponentially. The parameter λ obtained from the literature was equal to 0.3. As the total number of patients in these real samples was 327 patients, this implied in an average size of 3.3 cm and a 95% confidence interval of [2.9; 3.7]. The total number of available livers to be grafted was assumed to be 500. Results With 1500 patients in the waiting list and 500 grafts available we simulated the total number of deaths in both transplanted and non-transplanted HCC patients after 5 years as a function of the tumor size of transplanted patients. The total number of deaths drops down monotonically with tumor size, reaching a minimum at size equals to 7 cm, increasing from thereafter. With tumor size equals to 10 cm the total mortality is equal to the 5 cm threshold of the Milan criteria. Conclusion We concluded that it is possible to include patients with tumor size up to 10 cm without increasing the total mortality of this population

Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission

BACKGROUND: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. RESULTS: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. CONCLUSIONS: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions

Cost risk benefit analysis to support chemoprophylaxis policy for travellers to malaria endemic countries

BACKGROUND: In a number of malaria endemic regions, tourists and travellers face a declining risk of travel associated malaria, in part due to successful malaria control. Many millions of visitors to these regions are recommended, via national and international policy, to use chemoprophylaxis which has a well recognized morbidity profile. To evaluate whether current malaria chemo-prophylactic policy for travellers is cost effective when adjusted for endemic transmission risk and duration of exposure. a framework, based on partial cost-benefit analysis was used. METHODS: Using a three component model combining a probability component, a cost component and a malaria risk component, the study estimated health costs avoided through use of chemoprophylaxis and costs of disease prevention (including adverse events and pre-travel advice for visits to five popular high and low malaria endemic regions) and malaria transmission risk using imported malaria cases and numbers of travellers to malarious countries. By calculating the minimal threshold malaria risk below which the economic costs of chemoprophylaxis are greater than the avoided health costs we were able to identify the point at which chemoprophylaxis would be economically rational. RESULTS: The threshold incidence at which malaria chemoprophylaxis policy becomes cost effective for UK travellers is an accumulated risk of 1.13% assuming a given set of cost parameters. The period a travellers need to remain exposed to achieve this accumulated risk varied from 30 to more than 365 days, depending on the regions intensity of malaria transmission. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-benefit analysis identified that chemoprophylaxis use was not a cost-effective policy for travellers to Thailand or the Amazon region of Brazil, but was cost-effective for travel to West Africa and for those staying longer than 45 days in India and Indonesia

Study of Bc+B_c^+ decays to the K+K−π+K^+K^-\pi^+ final state and evidence for the decay Bc+→χc0π+B_c^+\to\chi_{c0}\pi^+

A study of $B_c^+\to K^+K^-\pi^+$ decays is performed for the first time using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0 $\mathrm{fb}^{-1}$ collected by the LHCb experiment in $pp$ collisions at centre-of-mass energies of $7$ and $8$ TeV. Evidence for the decay $B_c^+\to\chi_{c0}(\to K^+K^-)\pi^+$ is reported with a significance of 4.0 standard deviations, resulting in the measurement of $\frac{\sigma(B_c^+)}{\sigma(B^+)}\times\mathcal{B}(B_c^+\to\chi_{c0}\pi^+)$ to be $(9.8^{+3.4}_{-3.0}(\mathrm{stat})\pm 0.8(\mathrm{syst}))\times 10^{-6}$. Here $\mathcal{B}$ denotes a branching fraction while $\sigma(B_c^+)$ and $\sigma(B^+)$ are the production cross-sections for $B_c^+$ and $B^+$ mesons. An indication of $\bar b c$ weak annihilation is found for the region $m(K^-\pi^+)<1.834\mathrm{\,Ge\kern -0.1em V\!/}c^2$, with a significance of 2.4 standard deviations.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://lhcbproject.web.cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/LHCbProjectPublic/LHCb-PAPER-2016-022.html, link to supplemental material inserted in the reference

Observation of Two New Excited Ξb0 States Decaying to Λb0 K-π+

Two narrow resonant states are observed in the Λb0K-π+ mass spectrum using a data sample of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected by the LHCb experiment and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 6 fb-1. The minimal quark content of the Λb0K-π+ system indicates that these are excited Ξb0 baryons. The masses of the Ξb(6327)0 and Ξb(6333)0 states are m[Ξb(6327)0]=6327.28-0.21+0.23±0.12±0.24 and m[Ξb(6333)0]=6332.69-0.18+0.17±0.03±0.22 MeV, respectively, with a mass splitting of Δm=5.41-0.27+0.26±0.12 MeV, where the uncertainties are statistical, systematic, and due to the Λb0 mass measurement. The measured natural widths of these states are consistent with zero, with upper limits of Γ[Ξb(6327)0]&lt;2.20(2.56) and Γ[Ξb(6333)0]&lt;1.60(1.92) MeV at a 90% (95%) credibility level. The significance of the two-peak hypothesis is larger than nine (five) Gaussian standard deviations compared to the no-peak (one-peak) hypothesis. The masses, widths, and resonant structure of the new states are in good agreement with the expectations for a doublet of 1D Ξb0 resonances

Search for CP violation in Λb0→pK− and Λb0→pπ− decays

A search for CP violation in Λb0→pK− and Λb0→pπ− decays is presented using a sample of pp collisions collected with the LHCb detector and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0fb−1. The CP -violating asymmetries are measured to be ACPpK−=−0.020±0.013±0.019 and ACPpπ−=−0.035±0.017±0.020, and their difference ACPpK−−ACPpπ−=0.014±0.022±0.010, where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second systematic. These are the most precise measurements of such asymmetries to date

First Measurement of the Charge Asymmetry in Beauty-Quark Pair Production

The difference in the angular distributions between beauty quarks and antiquarks, referred to as the charge asymmetry, is measured for the first time in b (b) over bar pair production at a hadron collider. The data used correspond to an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb(-1) collected at 7 TeV center-of-mass energy in proton-proton collisions with the LHCb detector. The measurement is performed in three regions of the invariant mass of the b (b) over bar system. The results obtained are A(C)(b (b) over bar) (40 10(5) GeV/c(2)) = 1.6 +/- 1.7 +/- 0.6%,where A(C)(b (b) over bar) is defined as the asymmetry in the difference in rapidity between jets formed from the beauty quark and antiquark, where in each case the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. The beauty jets are required to satisfy 2 20 GeV, and have an opening angle in the transverse plane Delta phi > 2.6 rad. These measurements are consistent with the predictions of the standard model

Measurement of the B0s →J/ψη lifetime

Using a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3 fb−1, collected by the LHCb experiment in pp collisions at centre-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV, the effective lifetime in the Bs0→J/ψη decay mode, τeff, is measured to be τeff=1.479±0.034 (stat)±0.011 (syst) ps. Assuming CP conservation, τeff corresponds to the lifetime of the light Bs0 mass eigenstate. This is the first measurement of the effective lifetime in this decay mode

Measurement of D s ^± production asymmetry in pp collisions at √s=7 and 8 TeV

The inclusive $D_s^{\pm}$ production asymmetry is measured in $pp$ collisions collected by the LHCb experiment at centre-of-mass energies of $\sqrt{s} =7$ and 8 TeV. Promptly produced $D_s^{\pm}$ mesons are used, which decay as $D_s^{\pm}\to\phi\pi^{\pm}$, with $\phi\to K^+K^-$. The measurement is performed in bins of transverse momentum, $p_{\rm T}$, and rapidity, $y$, covering the range $2.5<p_{\rm T}<25.0$ GeV$/c$ and $2.0<y<4.5$. No kinematic dependence is observed. Evidence of nonzero $D_s^{\pm}$ production asymmetry is found with a significance of 3.3 standard deviations.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/p/LHCb-PAPER-2018-010.htm

Observation of B(s)0→J/ψpp¯ decays and precision measurements of the B(s)0 masses

The first observation of the decays B 0 ( s ) → J / ψ p ¯ p is reported, using proton-proton collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.2     fb − 1 , collected with the LHCb detector. These decays are suppressed due to limited available phase space, as well as due to Okubo-Zweig-Iizuka or Cabibbo suppression. The measured branching fractions are B ( B 0 → J / ψ p ¯ p ) = [ 4.51 ± 0.40 ( stat ) ± 0.44 ( syst ) ] × 10 − 7 , B ( B 0 s → J / ψ p ¯ p ) = [ 3.58 ± 0.19 ( stat ) ± 0.39 ( syst ) ] × 10 − 6 . For the B 0 s meson, the result is much higher than the expected value of O ( 10 − 9 ) . The small available phase space in these decays also allows for the most precise single measurement of both the B 0 mass as 5279.74 ± 0.30 ( stat ) ± 0.10 ( syst )     MeV and the B 0 s mass as 5366.85 ± 0.19 ( stat ) ± 0.13 ( syst )     MeV