Development and Evaluation of High Resolution Simulation Tools to Improve Fire Weather Forecasts

Fire weather forecasts rely on numerical weather simulations where the grid size is 4 km x 4 km or larger. In areas of complex terrain, this model resolution will not capture the details of wind flows associated with complicated topography. Wind channeling in valleys, wind speed-up over mountains and ridges, and enhanced turbulence associated with rough terrain and tall forest canopies are poorly represented in current weather model applications. A number of numerical wind flow models have been developed for simulating winds at high resolution; however, there are limited observational data available at the spatial scales appropriate for evaluating these types of models. In response to this need for high resolution validation data, we collected wind measurements at very high spatial resolution over a range of meteorological conditions from three different types of terrain/landcover features: an isolated mountain covered predominantly by grass and sagebrush, a steep river canyon covered predominantly by grass, and a dissected montane drainage with a tall forest canopy. We used data from the isolated mountain and the steep river canyon to evaluate surface wind predictions from routine weather forecasts and a high resolution wind simulation model, WindNinja, developed specifically for fire behavior applications. Data from the third field site will be used for future model evaluations planned to investigate the effect of tall forest canopies on surface wind predictions. Analyses of observations from the isolated mountain and steep river canyon sites indicate that operational weather model (i.e., with numerical grid resolutions of around 4 km or larger) wind predictions are not likely to be good predictors of local near-surface winds (i.e., at sub-grid scales) in complex terrain. Under periods of weak synoptic forcing, surface winds tended to be decoupled from large-scale flows, and under periods of strong synoptic forcing, variability in surface winds was sufficiently large due to terrain-induced mechanical effects that a large-scale mean flow would not be representative of surface winds at most locations on or within the terrain feature. These findings are reported in a manuscript titled “High Resolution Observations of the Near-Surface Wind Field over an Isolated Mountain and in a Steep River Canyon” submitted for publication in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Links to the observed data from this effort as well as an online interface to query, visualize, summarize, and download subsets of the data are available at: http://www.firemodels.org/index.php/windninja-introduction/windninja-publications. Findings from the model evaluations work indicate that using WindNinja to downscale from numerical weather prediction (NWP) model winds can, in some cases, improve the accuracy of surface wind forecasts in complex terrain. Predictions of surface wind speeds and directions improved with downscaling via WindNinja when flow features induced by large scale effects were adequately captured by the NWP model used to initialize WindNinja. This suggests that WindNinja could be incorporated into current fire forecast methods to provide better short-term forecasts for fire management operations. These findings are reported in a manuscript titled “Downscaling Surface Wind Predictions from Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Complex Terrain with a Mass-consistent Wind Model” that will be submitted to the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology later this spring

Development and Evaluation of High Resolution Simulation Tools to Improve Fire Weather Forecasts

Fire weather forecasts rely on numerical weather simulations where the grid size is 4 km x 4 km or larger. In areas of complex terrain, this model resolution will not capture the details of wind flows associated with complicated topography. Wind channeling in valleys, wind speed-up over mountains and ridges, and enhanced turbulence associated with rough terrain and tall forest canopies are poorly represented in current weather model applications. A number of numerical wind flow models have been developed for simulating winds at high resolution; however, there are limited observational data available at the spatial scales appropriate for evaluating these types of models. In response to this need for high resolution validation data, we collected wind measurements at very high spatial resolution over a range of meteorological conditions from three different types of terrain/landcover features: an isolated mountain covered predominantly by grass and sagebrush, a steep river canyon covered predominantly by grass, and a dissected montane drainage with a tall forest canopy. We used data from the isolated mountain and the steep river canyon to evaluate surface wind predictions from routine weather forecasts and a high resolution wind simulation model, WindNinja, developed specifically for fire behavior applications. Data from the third field site will be used for future model evaluations planned to investigate the effect of tall forest canopies on surface wind predictions. Analyses of observations from the isolated mountain and steep river canyon sites indicate that operational weather model (i.e., with numerical grid resolutions of around 4 km or larger) wind predictions are not likely to be good predictors of local near-surface winds (i.e., at sub-grid scales) in complex terrain. Under periods of weak synoptic forcing, surface winds tended to be decoupled from large-scale flows, and under periods of strong synoptic forcing, variability in surface winds was sufficiently large due to terrain-induced mechanical effects that a large-scale mean flow would not be representative of surface winds at most locations on or within the terrain feature. These findings are reported in a manuscript titled “High Resolution Observations of the Near-Surface Wind Field over an Isolated Mountain and in a Steep River Canyon” submitted for publication in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Links to the observed data from this effort as well as an online interface to query, visualize, summarize, and download subsets of the data are available at: http://www.firemodels.org/index.php/windninja-introduction/windninja-publications. Findings from the model evaluations work indicate that using WindNinja to downscale from numerical weather prediction (NWP) model winds can, in some cases, improve the accuracy of surface wind forecasts in complex terrain. Predictions of surface wind speeds and directions improved with downscaling via WindNinja when flow features induced by large scale effects were adequately captured by the NWP model used to initialize WindNinja. This suggests that WindNinja could be incorporated into current fire forecast methods to provide better short-term forecasts for fire management operations. These findings are reported in a manuscript titled “Downscaling Surface Wind Predictions from Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Complex Terrain with a Mass-consistent Wind Model” that will be submitted to the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology later this spring

Enterprise Transformation Research Summit

LAI 2009 Enterprise Transformation Research Summit overvie

2018 GJMPP Monograph Series: Grace Jordan McFadden Professors Program

The Grace Jordan McFadden Professors Program (GJMPP), formerly the African American Professors Program (AAPP)/Carolina Diversity Professors Program (CDPP) at the University of South Carolina, is honored to publish its seventeenth edition of this annual monograph series. GJMPP recognizes the significance of offering its scholars a venue through which they have the opportunity to engage in research and to publish their refereed papers that continually contribute to their respective academic areas. Parallel with the publication of their manuscripts is a venue to gain visibility among colleagues throughout postsecondary institutions at national and international levels. Scholars who have contributed papers for this monograph are acknowledged for embracing the value of including this responsibility within their doctoral milieu. Writing across disciplines adds broadly to the intellectual diversity of these manuscripts. From neophytes to quite experienced individuals, the chapters have been researched and written with vigor. Founded in 1997 through the Department of Educational Leadership and Policies in the College of Education, AAPP was designed originally to address the under-representation of African American professors on college and university campuses. Its mission is to expand the pool of these professors in critical academic and research areas. Sponsored historically by the University of South Carolina, the W. K. Kellogg Foundation, and the South Carolina General Assembly, the program recruits doctoral students for disciplines in which African Americans and others are underrepresented among faculty in higher education. The continuation of this monograph series is seen as responding to a window of opportunity to be sensitive to an academic expectation of graduates as they pursue career placement and, at the same time, to allow for the dissemination of products of scholarship to a broader community. The importance of this series has been voiced by one of our 2002 AAPP graduates, Dr. Shundelle LaTjuan Dogan, formerly an Administrative Fellow at Harvard University, a Program Officer for the Southern Education Foundation, and a Program Officer for the Arthur M. Blank Foundation in Atlanta, Georgia. She recently completed an appointment as Corporate Citizenship and Corporate Affairs Manager for IBM International Business Machines in Atlanta and is currently a consultant with a focus on philanthropy and social impact. She is currently Assistant Vice President for Social Impact and Innovation at Emory University. Dr. Dogan has written an impressive Foreword for the 2014 monograph. In a personal letter, which is cited in an earlier monograph, Dr. Dogan penned: “One thing in particular that I want to thank you for is having the African American Professors Program scholars publish articles for the monograph. I have to admit that writing the articles seemed like extra work at the time. However, in my recent interview process, organizations have asked me for samples of my writing. Including an article from a published monograph helped to make my portfolio much more impressive. You were ‘right on target’ in having us do the monograph series” (AAPP 2003, Monograph, p. xi). The Grace Jordan McFadden Professors Program purports to advance the tradition of spearheading international scholarship in higher education as evidenced through inspiration from this group of interdisciplinary manuscripts. I hope that you will envision these published papers to serve as an invaluable contribution to your own professional and career enhancement. John McFadden, PhD The Benjamin Elijah Mays Distinguished Professor Emeritus Director, Grace Jordan McFadden Professors Program University of South Carolina Columbia, South Carolinahttps://scholarcommons.sc.edu/mcfadden_monographs/1010/thumbnail.jp

Modeling Wind Direction Distributions Using a Diagnostic Model in the Context of Probabilistic Fire Spread Prediction

With emerging research on the dynamics of extreme fire behavior, it is increasingly important for wind models, used in operational fire prediction, to accurately capture areas of complex flow across rugged terrain. Additionally, the emergence of ensemble and stochastic modeling frameworks has led to the discussion of uncertainty in fire prediction. To capture the uncertainty of modeled fire outputs, it is necessary to recast uncertain inputs in probabilistic terms. WindNinja is the diagnostic wind model currently being applied within a number of operational fire prediction frameworks across the world. For computational efficiency, allowing for real-time or faster than real-time prediction, the physical equations governing wind flow across a complex terrain are often simplified. The model has a number of well documented limitations, for instance, it is known to perform poorly on leeward slopes. First, this study is aimed at understanding these limitations in a probabilistic context, by comparing individual deterministic predictions to observed distributions of wind direction. Secondly, a novel application of the deterministic WindNinja model is presented in this study which is shown to enable prediction of wind direction distributions that capture some of the variability of complex wind flow. Recasting wind fields in terms of probability distributions enables a better understanding of variability across the landscape, and provides the probabilistic information required to capture uncertainty through ensemble or stochastic fire modeling. The comparisons detailed in this study indicate the potential for WindNinja to predict multi-modal wind direction distributions that represent complex wind behaviors, including re-circulation regions on leeward slopes. However, the limitations of using deterministic models within probabilistic frameworks are also highlighted. To enhance fire prediction and to better understand uncertainty, it is recommended that statistical approaches also be developed to complement existing physics-based deterministic wind models

Longitudinal Pathways between Maternal Mental Health in Infancy and Offspring Romantic Relationships in Adulthood: A 30‐year Prospective Study

Longitudinal pathways between maternal mental health in infancy and offspring romantic relationship outcomes in adulthood were examined using a 30‐year prospective longitudinal study of 196 mothers and their children. Structural equation modeling revealed that maternal mental health at 30 months was related to offspring relationship status and relationship attachment insecurity at 30 years. The adolescent variables of offspring mental health and parental relationship status mediated the link between maternal mental health and offspring relationship status. In addition, adolescent mental health and family conflict mediated the pathway between maternal mental health and offspring attachment insecurity. These results highlight the importance of individual and parental mental health to romantic relationship outcomes, and emphasize the value of taking a developmental approach to the study of romantic relationships.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90142/1/j.1467-9507.2011.00610.x.pd

Demographic correlates of DSM‐IV major depressive disorder among older African Americans, Black Caribbeans, and non‐Hispanic Whites: results from the National Survey of American Life

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/92418/1/gps2805.pd

Factors contributing to intervention fidelity in a multi-site chronic disease self-management program

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Disease self-management programs have been a popular approach to reducing morbidity and mortality from chronic disease. Replicating an evidence-based disease management program successfully requires practitioners to ensure fidelity to the original program design. METHODS: The Florida Health Literacy Study (FHLS) was conducted to investigate the implementation impact of the Pfizer, Inc. Diabetes Mellitus and Hypertension Disease Self-Management Program based on health literacy principles in 14 community health centers in Florida. The intervention components discussed include health educator recruitment and training, patient recruitment, class sessions, utilization of program materials, translation of program manuals, patient retention and follow-up, and technical assistance. RESULTS: This report describes challenges associated with achieving a balance between adaptation for cultural relevance and fidelity when implementing the health education program across clinic sites. This balance was necessary to achieve effectiveness of the disease self-management program. The FHLS program was implemented with a high degree of fidelity to the original design and used original program materials. Adaptations identified as advantageous to program participation are discussed, such as implementing alternate methods for recruiting patients and developing staff incentives for participation. CONCLUSION: Effective program implementation depends on the talent, skill and willing participation of clinic staff. Program adaptations that conserve staff time and resources and recognize their contribution can increase program effectiveness without jeopardizing its fidelity

Structural issues affecting mixed methods studies in health research: a qualitative study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Health researchers undertake studies which combine qualitative and quantitative methods. Little attention has been paid to the structural issues affecting this mixed methods approach. We explored the facilitators and barriers to undertaking mixed methods studies in health research.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Face-to-face semi-structured interviews with 20 researchers experienced in mixed methods research in health in the United Kingdom.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Structural facilitators for undertaking mixed methods studies included a perception that funding bodies promoted this approach, and the multidisciplinary constituency of some university departments. Structural barriers to exploiting the potential of these studies included a lack of education and training in mixed methods research, and a lack of templates for reporting mixed methods articles in peer-reviewed journals. The 'hierarchy of evidence' relating to effectiveness studies in health care research, with the randomised controlled trial as the gold standard, appeared to pervade the health research infrastructure. Thus integration of data and findings from qualitative and quantitative components of mixed methods studies, and dissemination of integrated outputs, tended to occur through serendipity and effort, further highlighting the presence of structural constraints. Researchers are agents who may also support current structures - journal reviewers and editors, and directors of postgraduate training courses - and thus have the ability to improve the structural support for exploiting the potential of mixed methods research.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The environment for health research in the UK appears to be conducive to mixed methods research but not to exploiting the potential of this approach. Structural change, as well as change in researcher behaviour, will be necessary if researchers are to fully exploit the potential of using mixed methods research.</p

Need for weight management in Switzerland: findings from National Blood Pressure Week 2009

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Swiss Health Survey (SHS) provides the only source of data for monitoring overweight and obesity in the general population in Switzerland. However, this survey reports body mass index (BMI) based on self-reported height and weight, and is therefore subject to measurement errors. Moreover, it is not possible to differentiate between overall and abdominal overweight. In this study, we aimed to gain a better understanding of the need for weight management in the general population of Switzerland by exploring and comparing prevalence rates of BMI and waist circumference (WC) based on physical measurements by trained observers, based on data from the 2009 National Blood Pressure Week (NBPW).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Sample selection was based on a one-stage cluster design. A total of 385 pharmacies representing 3,600 subjects were randomly selected from pharmacies participating in NBPW. BMI measures based on physical weight and height (NBPW) were compared with self-reported BMI measures from the SHS. BMI and WC measurements from NBPW were then used to produce population estimates of overweight and obesity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>BMI-based overall prevalence of overweight and obesity was 43.6%, which was 4.7% higher than the value based on the respective SHS data. Overweight and obesity were more common in men (54.3%) than in women (33.5%). However, the overall prevalence of increased WC in the general population was estimated to be 64.4%, with more women (68.4%) than men (60.1%) exhibiting a WC above the threshold. The prevalence of subjects requiring weight management in the Swiss population remained high, even after adjusting WC for false positive and negative cases.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Firstly, it may be more appropriate for health promotion programs to address the wider group identified by WC, which includes subjects who need to reduce their weight, or gain no further weight. Secondly, the gender differences are reversed depending on the use of WC or BMI to identify subjects suitable for health promotion programs; more women than men are identified by WC, and more men than women using BMI. These differences should be accounted for in gender-specific health promotion programs.</p