Recurrent Event Data Analysis With Intermittently Observed Time-Varying Covariates

Although recurrent event data analysis is a rapidly evolving area of research, rigorous studies on estimation of the effects of intermittently observed time-varying covariates on the risk of recurrent events have been lacking. Existing methods for analyzing recurrent event data usually require that the covariate processes are observed throughout the entire follow-up period. However, covariates are often observed periodically rather than continuously. We propose a novel semiparametric estimator for the regression parameters in the popular proportional rate model. The proposed estimator is based on an estimated score function where we kernel smooth the mean covariate process. We show that the proposed semiparametric estimator is asymptotically unbiased, normally distributed and derive the asymptotic variance. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the performance of the proposed estimator and the simple methods carrying forward the last covariates. The different methods are applied to an observational study designed to assess the effect of Group A streptococcus (GAS) on pharyngitis among school children in India

Risk of COVID-19 after natural infection or vaccination

BACKGROUND: While vaccines have established utility against COVID-19, phase 3 efficacy studies have generally not comprehensively evaluated protection provided by previous infection or hybrid immunity (previous infection plus vaccination). Individual patient data from US government-supported harmonized vaccine trials provide an unprecedented sample population to address this issue. We characterized the protective efficacy of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against COVID-19 early in the pandemic over three-to six-month follow-up and compared with vaccine-associated protection. METHODS: In this post-hoc cross-protocol analysis of the Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials, we allocated participants into four groups based on previous-infection status at enrolment and treatment: no previous infection/placebo; previous infection/placebo; no previous infection/vaccine; and previous infection/vaccine. The main outcome was RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 \u3e7-15 days (per original protocols) after final study injection. We calculated crude and adjusted efficacy measures. FINDINGS: Previous infection/placebo participants had a 92% decreased risk of future COVID-19 compared to no previous infection/placebo participants (overall hazard ratio [HR] ratio: 0.08; 95% CI: 0.05-0.13). Among single-dose Janssen participants, hybrid immunity conferred greater protection than vaccine alone (HR: 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01-0.10). Too few infections were observed to draw statistical inferences comparing hybrid immunity to vaccine alone for other trials. Vaccination, previous infection, and hybrid immunity all provided near-complete protection against severe disease. INTERPRETATION: Previous infection, any hybrid immunity, and two-dose vaccination all provided substantial protection against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 through the early Delta period. Thus, as a surrogate for natural infection, vaccination remains the safest approach to protection. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health

Pre-ART Levels of Inflammation and Coagulation Markers Are Strong Predictors of Death in a South African Cohort with Advanced HIV Disease

BACKGROUND: Levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and D-dimer predict mortality in HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with relatively preserved CD4+ T cell counts. We hypothesized that elevated pre-ART levels of these markers among patients with advanced HIV would be associated with an increased risk of death following the initiation of ART. METHODS: Pre-ART plasma from patients with advanced HIV in South Africa was used to measure hsCRP, IL-6 and D-dimer. Using a nested case-control study design, the biomarkers were measured for 187 deaths and two controls matched on age, sex, clinical site, follow-up time and CD4+ cell counts. Odds ratios were estimated using conditional logistic regression. In addition, for a random sample of 100 patients, biomarkers were measured at baseline and 6 months following randomization to determine whether ART altered their levels. RESULTS: Median baseline biomarkers levels for cases and controls, respectively, were 11.25 vs. 3.6 mg/L for hsCRP, 1.41 vs. 0.98 mg/L for D-dimer, and 9.02 vs. 4.20 pg/mL for IL-6 (all p<0.0001). Adjusted odds ratios for the highest versus lowest quartile of baseline biomarker levels were 3.5 (95% CI: 1.9-6.7) for hsCRP, 2.6 (95%CI 1.4-4.9) for D-dimer, and 3.8 (95% CI: 1.8-7.8) for IL-6. These associations were stronger for deaths that occurred more proximal to the biomarker measurements. Levels of D-dimer and IL-6, but not hsCRP, were significantly lower at month 6 after commencing ART compared to baseline (p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with advanced HIV disease, elevated pre-ART levels of hsCRP, IL-6 and D-dimer are strongly associated with early mortality after commencing ART. Elevated levels of inflammatory and coagulation biomarkers may identify patients who may benefit from aggressive clinical monitoring after commencing ART. Further investigation of strategies to reduce biomarkers of inflammation and coagulation in patients with advanced HIV disease is warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Parent study: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00342355

Development of Functional and Molecular Correlates of Vaccine-Induced Protection for a Model Intracellular Pathogen, F. tularensis LVS

In contrast with common human infections for which vaccine efficacy can be evaluated directly in field studies, alternative strategies are needed to evaluate efficacy for slowly developing or sporadic diseases like tularemia. For diseases such as these caused by intracellular bacteria, serological measures of antibodies are generally not predictive. Here, we used vaccines varying in efficacy to explore development of clinically useful correlates of protection for intracellular bacteria, using Francisella tularensis as an experimental model. F. tularensis is an intracellular bacterium classified as Category A bioterrorism agent which causes tularemia. The primary vaccine candidate in the U.S., called Live Vaccine Strain (LVS), has been the subject of ongoing clinical studies; however, safety and efficacy are not well established, and LVS is not licensed by the U.S. FDA. Using a mouse model, we compared the in vivo efficacy of a panel of qualitatively different Francisella vaccine candidates, the in vitro functional activity of immune lymphocytes derived from vaccinated mice, and relative gene expression in immune lymphocytes. Integrated analyses showed that the hierarchy of protection in vivo engendered by qualitatively different vaccines was reflected by the degree of lymphocytes' in vitro activity in controlling the intramacrophage growth of Francisella. Thus, this assay may be a functional correlate. Further, the strength of protection was significantly related to the degree of up-regulation of expression of a panel of genes in cells recovered from the assay. These included IFN-γ, IL-6, IL-12Rβ2, T-bet, SOCS-1, and IL-18bp. Taken together, the results indicate that an in vitro assay that detects control of bacterial growth, and/or a selected panel of mediators, may ultimately be developed to predict the outcome of vaccine efficacy and to complement clinical trials. The overall approach may be applicable to intracellular pathogens in general

Genetic Variation in OAS1 Is a Risk Factor for Initial Infection with West Nile Virus in Man

West Nile virus (WNV) is a re-emerging pathogen that can cause fatal encephalitis. In mice, susceptibility to WNV has been reported to result from a single point mutation in oas1b, which encodes 2′–5′ oligoadenylate synthetase 1b, a member of the type I interferon-regulated OAS gene family involved in viral RNA degradation. In man, the human ortholog of oas1b appears to be OAS1. The ‘A’ allele at SNP rs10774671 of OAS1 has previously been shown to alter splicing of OAS1 and to be associated with reduced OAS activity in PBMCs. Here we show that the frequency of this hypofunctional allele is increased in both symptomatic and asymptomatic WNV seroconverters (Caucasians from five US centers; total n = 501; OR = 1.6 [95% CI 1.2–2.0], P = 0.0002 in a recessive genetic model). We then directly tested the effect of this SNP on viral replication in a novel ex vivo model of WNV infection in primary human lymphoid tissue. Virus accumulation varied markedly among donors, and was highest for individuals homozygous for the ‘A’ allele (P<0.0001). Together, these data identify OAS1 SNP rs10774671 as a host genetic risk factor for initial infection with WNV in humans

Emerging CO2 capture systems

In 2005, the IPCC SRCCS recognized the large potential for developing and scaling up a wide range of emerging CO2 capture technologies that promised to deliver lower energy penalties and cost. These included new energy conversion technologies such as chemical looping and novel capture systems based on the use of solid sorbents or membrane-based separation systems. In the last 10 years, a substantial body of scientific and technical literature on these topics has been produced from a large number of R&D projects worldwide, trying to demonstrate these concepts at increasing pilot scales, test and model the performance of key components at bench scale, investigate and develop improved functional materials, optimize the full process schemes with a view to a wide range of industrial applications, and to carry out more rigorous cost studies etc. This paper presents a general and critical review of the state of the art of these emerging CO2 capture technologies paying special attention to specific process routes that have undergone a substantial increase in technical readiness level toward the large scales required by any CO2 capture system