Counting Your Customers the Easy Way: An Alternative to the Pareto/NBD Model

Today’s managers are very interested in predicting the future purchasing patterns of their customers, which can then serve as an input into “lifetime value” calculations. Among the models that provide such capabilities, the Pareto/NBD “counting your customers” framework proposed by Schmittlein et al. (1987) is highly regarded. However, despite the respect it has earned, it has proven to be a difficult model to implement, particularly because of computational challenges associated with parameter estimation. We develop a new model, the beta-geometric/NBD (BG/NBD), which represents a slight variation in the behavioral “story” associated with the Pareto/NBD but is vastly easier to implement. We show, for instance, how its parameters can be obtained quite easily in Microsoft Excel. The two models yield very similar results in a wide variety of purchasing environments, leading us to suggest that the BG/NBD could be viewed as an attractive alternative to the Pareto/NBD in most applications

Absorbent products for urinary/faecal incontinence: a comparative evaluation of key product designs

Background: The UK health service, nursing homes and public spend around £94 million per year on incontinence pads (absorbent products) to contain urine and/or faeces, but the research base for making informed choices between different product designs is very weak.Objectives: The aim of this trial was to compare the performance and cost-effectiveness of the key absorbent product designs to provide a more solid basis for guiding selection and purchase.A further aim was to carry out the first stage in the development of a quality of life instrument for measuring the impact of absorbent product use on users' lives.Design: The work involved three clinical trials focusing on the three biggest market sectors. Each trial had a similar crossover design in which each participant tested all products within their group in random order.Settings, participants and methods: In Trial 1, 85 women with light urinary incontinence living in the community tested three products from each of the four design categories available (total of 12 test products): disposable inserts (pads); menstrual pads; washable pants with integral pad; and washable inserts. In Trial 2a, 85 moderate/heavily incontinent adults (urinary or urinary/faecal) living in the community (49 men and 36 women) tested three (or two) products from each of the five design categories available (total of 14 test products): disposable inserts (with mesh pants); disposable diapers (nappies); disposable pull-ups (similar to toddlers' trainer pants); disposable T-shaped diapers (nappies with waist-band); and washable diapers. All products were provided in a daytime and a (mostly more absorbent) night-time variant. In these first two trials, the test products were selected on the basis of data from pilot studies. In Trial 2b, 100 moderate/heavily incontinent adults (urinary or urinary/faecal) living in 10 nursing homes (27 men and 73 women) evaluated one product from each of the four disposable design categories from Trial 2a. Products were selected on the basis of product performance in Trial 2a and, again, daytime and night-time variants were provided. The first phase of work to develop a quality of life tool for measuring the impact of using different pad designs was carried out by interviewing participants from Trials 1 and 2a.Outcome measures: Product performance was characterised using validated questionnaires, which asked the participants (in Trials 1 and 2a) or carers (all participants in Trial 2b, except for the few who could report for themselves) to evaluate various aspects of pad performance (leakage, ease of putting on, discreetness, etc.) using a five-point scale (very good–very poor) at the end of the week (or 2 weeks for Trial 2b) of product testing. In addition, participants/carers were asked to save individual used pads in bags for weighing and to indicate the severity of any leakage from them on a three-point scale (none, a little, a lot). These data were used to determine differences in leakage performance. Numbers of laundry items and pads used were recorded to estimate costs, and skin health changes were recorded by the participant or by the researchers (Trial 2b). At the end of testing, participants were interviewed and ranked their preferences (with and without costs), stated the acceptability of each design (highly acceptable–totally unacceptable) and recorded their overall opinion on a visual analogue scale (VAS) of 0–100 points (worst design–best design). This VAS score was used with product costs to estimate cost-effectiveness. In addition, a timed pad changing exercise was conducted with 10 women from Trial 2b to determine any differences between product designs.Results: Results presented are for statistically and clinically significant findings.<br/

Robotic single-port transumbilical total hysterectomy: a pilot study

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the feasibility of robotic single-port transumbilical total hysterectomy using a home-made surgical glove port system. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients who underwent robotic single-port transumbilical total hysterectomy between January 2010 and July 2010. All surgical procedures were performed through a single 3-4-cm umbilical incision, with a multi-channel system consisting of a wound retractor, a surgical glove, and two 10/12-mm and two 8 mm trocars. RESULTS: Seven patients were treated with robotic single-port transumbilical total hysterectomy. Procedures included total hysterectomy due to benign gynecological disease (n=5), extra-fascial hysterectomy due to carcinoma in situ of the cervix (n=1), and radical hysterectomy due to cervical cancer IB1 (n=1). The median total operative time was 109 minutes (range, 105 to 311 minutes), the median blood loss was 100 mL (range, 10 to 750 mL), and the median weight of the resected uteri was 200 g (range, 40 to 310 g). One benign case was converted to 3-port robotic surgery due to severe pelvic adhesions, and no post-operative complications occurred. CONCLUSION: Robotic single-port transumbilical total hysterectomy is technically feasible in selected patients with gynecological disease. Robotics may enhance surgical skills during single-port transumbilical hysterectomy, especially in patients with gynecologic cancers.ope

Distinct Effects of Two HIV-1 Capsid Assembly Inhibitor Families That Bind the Same Site within the N-Terminal Domain of the Viral CA Protein

The emergence of resistance to existing classes of antiretroviral drugs necessitates finding new HIV-1 targets for drug discovery. The viral capsid (CA) protein represents one such potential new target. CA is sufficient to form mature HIV-1 capsids in vitro, and extensive structure-function and mutational analyses of CA have shown that the proper assembly, morphology, and stability of the mature capsid core are essential for the infectivity of HIV-1 virions. Here we describe the development of an in vitro capsid assembly assay based on the association of CA-NC subunits on immobilized oligonucleotides. This assay was used to screen a compound library, yielding several different families of compounds that inhibited capsid assembly. Optimization of two chemical series, termed the benzodiazepines (BD) and the benzimidazoles (BM), resulted in compounds with potent antiviral activity against wild-type and drug-resistant HIV-1. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopic and X-ray crystallographic analyses showed that both series of inhibitors bound to the N-terminal domain of CA. These inhibitors induce the formation of a pocket that overlaps with the binding site for the previously reported CAP inhibitors but is expanded significantly by these new, more potent CA inhibitors. Virus release and electron microscopic (EM) studies showed that the BD compounds prevented virion release, whereas the BM compounds inhibited the formation of the mature capsid. Passage of virus in the presence of the inhibitors selected for resistance mutations that mapped to highly conserved residues surrounding the inhibitor binding pocket, but also to the C-terminal domain of CA. The resistance mutations selected by the two series differed, consistent with differences in their interactions within the pocket, and most also impaired virus replicative capacity. Resistance mutations had two modes of action, either directly impacting inhibitor binding affinity or apparently increasing the overall stability of the viral capsid without affecting inhibitor binding. These studies demonstrate that CA is a viable antiviral target and demonstrate that inhibitors that bind within the same site on CA can have distinct binding modes and mechanisms of action

A framework for increasing the value of predictive data-driven models by enriching problem domain characterization with novel features

The need to leverage knowledge through data mining has driven enterprises in a demand for more data. However, there is a gap between the availability of data and the application of extracted knowledge for improving decision support. In fact, more data do not necessarily imply better predictive data-driven marketing models, since it is often the case that the problem domain requires a deeper characterization. Aiming at such characterization, we propose a framework drawn on three feature selection strategies, where the goal is to unveil novel features that can effectively increase the value of data by providing a richer characterization of the problem domain. Such strategies involve encompassing context (e.g., social and economic variables), evaluating past history, and disaggregate the main problem into smaller but interesting subproblems. The framework is evaluated through an empirical analysis for a real bank telemarketing application, with the results proving the benefits of such approach, as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve increased with each stage, improving previous model in terms of predictive performance.The work of P. Cortez was supported by FCT within the Project Scope UID/CEC/00319/2013. The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Intermittent catheterisation after botulinum toxin injections : the time to reassess our practice

INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS Botulinum toxin has become a widely adopted treatment for patients with recalcitrant overactive bladder (OAB) symptoms. Some recommend clean intermittent self-catheterisation (CISC) if a postvoid residual (PVR) >200 ml posttreatment, but there is no evidence for this recommendation. The aim of this study was to identify whether abstinence from CISC as a routine strategy for patients with a PVR following intradetrusor botulinum toxin injections is associated with any measurable adversity. METHODS This was a cohort observation study. Patients with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) attending a medical urology centre were observed before and after botulinum toxin treatment. Intradetrusal botulinum toxin injections were administered in the day-treatment centre at a medical urology centre in London, UK. Patients were reviewed at follow-up consultations to measure PVR. RESULTS Of the 240 patients studied, 215 were women and 25 were men, of whom, 196 (82%) received botulinum toxin injections and were not managed with CISC; 18% were using CISC prior to injections and continued. None of the 196 patients developed acute retention or significant voiding symptoms. CONCLUSIONS Our study indicates that routine administration of CISC based on an arbitrary PVR volume is unlikely to confer benefit. In order to avoid patients being deterred from botulinum treatment, we recommend that CISC be reserved for those who have troublesome voiding symptoms as well as a raised PVR. It is unlikely that CISC, initiated on the basis of an arbitrary PVR volume, would benefit the patient

Nitrite-derived nitric oxide reduces hypoxia-inducible factor 1α-mediated extracellular vesicle production by endothelial cells

Introduction Extracellular vesicles (EVs) are small, spherical particles enclosed by a phospholipid bilayer (∼30–1000 nm) released from multiple cell types, and have been shown to have pathophysiological roles in a plethora of disease states. The transcription factor hypoxia-inducible factor-1 (HIF-1) allows for adaptation of cellular physiology in hypoxia and may permit the enhanced release of EVs under such conditions. Nitric oxide (NO) plays a pivotal role in vascular homeostasis, and can modulate the cellular response to hypoxia by preventing HIF-1 accumulation. We aimed to selectively target HIF-1 via sodium nitrite (NaNO2) addition, and examine the effect on endothelial EV, size, concentration and function, and delineate the role of HIF-1 in EV biogenesis. Methods Endothelial (HECV) cells were exposed to hypoxic conditions (1% O2, 24 h) and compared to endothelial cells exposed to normoxia (21% O2) with and without the presence of sodium nitrite (NaNO2) (30 μM). Allopurinol (100 μM), an inhibitor of xanthine oxidoreductase, was added both alone and in combination with NaNO2 to cells exposed to hypoxia. EV and cell preparations were quantified by nanoparticle tracking analysis and confirmed by electron microscopy. Western blotting and siRNA were used to confirm the role of HIF-1α and HIF-2α in EV biogenesis. Flow cytometry and time-resolved fluorescence were used to assess the surface and intravesicular protein content. Results Endothelial (HECV) cells exposed to hypoxia (1% O2) produced higher levels of EVs compared to cells exposed to normoxia. This increase was confirmed using the hypoxia-mimetic agent desferrioxamine. Treatment of cells with sodium nitrite (NaNO2) reduced the hypoxic enhancement of EV production. Treatment of cells with the xanthine oxidoreductase inhibitor allopurinol, in addition to NaNO2 attenuated the NaNO2-attributed suppression of hypoxia-mediated EV release. Transfection of cells with HIF-1α siRNA, but not HIF-2α siRNA, prior to hypoxic exposure prevented the enhancement of EV release. Conclusion These data provide evidence that hypoxia enhances the release of EVs in endothelial cells, and that this is mediated by HIF-1α, but not HIF-2α. Furthermore, the reduction of NO2− to NO via xanthine oxidoreductase during hypoxia appears to inhibit HIF-1α-mediated EV production

Adenovirus RID-α activates an autonomous cholesterol regulatory mechanism that rescues defects linked to Niemann-Pick disease type C

Viral subversion of cholesterol homeostasis provides insights into sterol trafficking, autophagy, and lysosomal storage diseases