A Neural Approach to Ordinal Regression for the Preventive Assessment of Developmental Dyslexia

Developmental Dyslexia (DD) is a learning disability related to the acquisition of reading skills that affects about 5% of the population. DD can have an enormous impact on the intellectual and personal development of affected children, so early detection is key to implementing preventive strategies for teaching language. Research has shown that there may be biological underpinnings to DD that affect phoneme processing, and hence these symptoms may be identifiable before reading ability is acquired, allowing for early intervention. In this paper we propose a new methodology to assess the risk of DD before students learn to read. For this purpose, we propose a mixed neural model that calculates risk levels of dyslexia from tests that can be completed at the age of 5 years. Our method first trains an auto-encoder, and then combines the trained encoder with an optimized ordinal regression neural network devised to ensure consistency of predictions. Our experiments show that the system is able to detect unaffected subjects two years before it can assess the risk of DD based mainly on phonological processing, giving a specificity of 0.969 and a correct rate of more than 0.92. In addition, the trained encoder can be used to transform test results into an interpretable subject spatial distribution that facilitates risk assessment and validates methodology.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Influence of elevated-CRP level-related polymorphisms in non-rheumatic Caucasians on the risk of subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease in rheumatoid arthritis

Association between elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) serum levels and subclinical atherosclerosis and cardiovascular (CV) events was described in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). CRP, HNF1A, LEPR, GCKR, NLRP3, IL1F10, PPP1R3B, ASCL1, HNF4A and SALL1 exert an influence on elevated CRP serum levels in non-rheumatic Caucasians. Consequently, we evaluated the potential role of these genes in the development of CV events and subclinical atherosclerosis in RA patients. Three tag CRP polymorphisms and HNF1A, LEPR, GCKR, NLRP3, IL1F10, PPP1R3B, ASCL1, HNF4A and SALL1 were genotyped in 2,313 Spanish patients by TaqMan. Subclinical atherosclerosis was determined in 1,298 of them by carotid ultrasonography (by assessment of carotid intima-media thickness-cIMT-and presence/absence of carotid plaques). CRP serum levels at diagnosis and at the time of carotid ultrasonography were measured in 1,662 and 1,193 patients, respectively, by immunoturbidimetry. Interestingly, a relationship between CRP and CRP serum levels at diagnosis and at the time of the carotid ultrasonography was disclosed. However, no statistically significant differences were found when CRP, HNF1A, LEPR, GCKR, NLRP3, IL1F10, PPP1R3B, ASCL1, HNF4A and SALL1 were evaluated according to the presence/absence of CV events, carotid plaques and cIMT after adjustment. Our results do not confirm an association between these genes and CV disease in RA

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Tree-Growth Variations of Nothofagus antarctica Related to Climate and Land Use Changes in Southern Patagonia, Argentina

Isolated forest patches of Nothofagus antarctica (ñire) are frequent in the Patagonian forest-steppe ecotone. These remnants, also called relicts (R), are separate from the continuous forests (C). Over the past century, these ecotonal forests have been impacted by anthropogenic activities, including fires, logging, and cattle ranching. In order to identify in N. antarctica ring-width records the variations in tree growth associated with documented changes in land use, five sites were selected in Santa Cruz, Argentina. In each site, increment cores from R and C were collected. We developed individual chronologies, and the relationships between regional climate variations and N. antarctica growth were established for each forest type and site. The similarities/differences between site-paired chronologies (R-C) were estimated by calculating moving correlation coefficients lagged by 1 year. N. antarctica regional growth was directly related to precipitation during the current growing season (November–December; r = 0.34, n = 62, p < 0.01), and inversely related to temperature (December–March; r = −0.58, n = 62, p < 0.001). Since the middle of the twentieth century, a progressive decrease has been recorded in regional radial growth, consistent with an increase in summer temperature and a decrease in spring precipitation. In the context of this regional response of N. antarctica to climate, differences in growth patterns between R and C were associated with past changes in land use. Overall, the largest differences between R and C chronologies were concurrent with the settlement of cattle ranches and the associated use of forests. Conversely, similarities between R and C records increased after the establishment of protected areas and during the implementation of similar management practices in both forest types. Our research provides the first dendrochronological records from Nothofagus antarctica for the Argentinean Patagonia and represents one of the first efforts to identify in tree-rings past changes in livestock practices in southern South America.EEA Santa CruzFil: Vettese, Evangelina S. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. CIT Santa Cruz; Argentina.Fil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina.Fil: Orellana Ibáñez, Ivonne A. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia San Juan Bosco. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Ciencias de la Salud; Argentina.Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Santa Cruz; Argentina.Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral; Argentina.Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina