Predictive ability of logistic regression, auto-logistic regression and neural network models in empirical land-use change modeling: a case study

The objective of this study is to compare the abilities of logistic, auto-logistic and artificial neural network (ANN) models for quantifying the relationships between land uses and their drivers. In addition, the application of the results obtained by the three techniques is tested in a dynamic land-use change model (CLUE-s) for the Paochiao watershed region in Taiwan. Relative operating characteristic curves (ROCs), kappa statistics, multiple resolution validation and landscape metrics were used to assess the ability of the three techniques in estimating the relationship between driving factors and land use and its subsequent application in land-use change models. The validation results illustrate that for this case study ANNs constitute a powerful alternative for the use of logistic regression in empirical modeling of spatial land-use change processes. ANNs provide in this case a better fit between driving factors and land-use pattern. In addition, auto-logistic regression performs better than logistic regression and nearly as well as ANNs. Auto-logistic regression and ANNs are considered especially useful when the performance of more conventional models is not satisfactory or the underlying data relationships are unknown. The results indicate that an evaluation of alternative techniques to specify relationships between driving factors and land use can improve the performance of land-use change models

Do birds of a feather flock together? Comparing habitat preferences of piscivorous waterbirds in a lowland river catchment

Waterbirds can move into and exploit new areas of suitable habitat outside of their native range. One such example is the little egret (Egretta garzetta), a piscivorous bird which has colonised southern Britain within the last 30 years. Yet, habitat use by little egrets within Britain, and how such patterns of habitat exploitation compare with native piscivores, remains unknown. We examine overlap in habitat preferences within a river catchment between the little egret and two native species, the grey heron (Ardea cinerea) and great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo). All species showed strong preferences for river habitat in all seasons, with other habitat types used as auxiliary feeding areas. Seasonal use of multiple habitat types is consistent with egret habitat use within its native range. We found strong egret preference for aquatic habitats, in particular freshwaters, compared with pasture and arable agricultural habitat. Egrets showed greater shared habitat preferences with herons, the native species to which egrets are most morphologically and functionally similar. This is the first study to quantify little egret habitat preferences outside of its native range

Gravitational Waves from Gravitational Collapse

Gravitational wave emission from the gravitational collapse of massive stars has been studied for more than three decades. Current state of the art numerical investigations of collapse include those that use progenitors with realistic angular momentum profiles, properly treat microphysics issues, account for general relativity, and examine non--axisymmetric effects in three dimensions. Such simulations predict that gravitational waves from various phenomena associated with gravitational collapse could be detectable with advanced ground--based and future space--based interferometric observatories.Comment: 68 pages including 13 figures; revised version accepted for publication in Living Reviews in Relativity (http://www.livingreviews.org

Future therapeutic targets in rheumatoid arthritis?

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory disease characterized by persistent joint inflammation. Without adequate treatment, patients with RA will develop joint deformity and progressive functional impairment. With the implementation of treat-to-target strategies and availability of biologic therapies, the outcomes for patients with RA have significantly improved. However, the unmet need in the treatment of RA remains high as some patients do not respond sufficiently to the currently available agents, remission is not always achieved and refractory disease is not uncommon. With better understanding of the pathophysiology of RA, new therapeutic approaches are emerging. Apart from more selective Janus kinase inhibition, there is a great interest in the granulocyte macrophage-colony stimulating factor pathway, Bruton's tyrosine kinase pathway, phosphoinositide-3-kinase pathway, neural stimulation and dendritic cell-based therapeutics. In this review, we will discuss the therapeutic potential of these novel approaches

Extensive Copy-Number Variation of Young Genes across Stickleback Populations

MM received funding from the Max Planck innovation funds for this project. PGDF was supported by a Marie Curie European Reintegration Grant (proposal nr 270891). CE was supported by German Science Foundation grants (DFG, EI 841/4-1 and EI 841/6-1). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Complex networks for climate model evaluation with application to statistical versus dynamical modeling of South American climate

Acknowledgments: This paper was developed within the scope of the IRTG 1740/TRP 2011/50151-0, funded by the DFG/FAPESP. Furthermore, this work has been financially supported by the Leibniz Society (project ECONS), and the Stordalen Foundation (JFD). For certain calculations, the software packages pyunicorn (Donges et al. 2013a) and igraph (Csa´rdi and Nepusz 2006) were used. The authors would like to thank Manoel F. Cardoso, Niklas Boers, and the reviewers for helpful comments on the manuscript. Open Access: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited.Peer reviewedPostprin

Effects of conjugated linoleic acid on myogenic and inflammatory responses in a human primary muscle and tumor coculture model

The antiproliferative and anti-inflammatory properties of conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) make it a potentially novel treatment in chronic inflammatory muscle wasting disease, particularly cancer cachexia. Human primary muscle cells were grown in coculture with MIA PaCa-2 pancreatic tumor cells and exposed to varying concentrations of c9,t11 and t10,c12 CLA. Expression of myogenic (Myf5, MyoD, myogenin, and myostatin) and inflammatory genes (CCL-2, COX-2, IL-8, and TNF-) were measured by real-time PCR. The t10,c12 CLA isomer, but not the c9,t11 isomer, significantly decreased MIA PaCa-2 proliferation by between 15% and 19%. There was a marked decrease in muscle MyoD and myogenin expression (78% and 62%, respectively), but no change in either Myf5 or myostatin, in myotubes grown in coculture with MIA PaCa-2 cells. CLA had limited influence on these responses. A similar pattern of myogenic gene expression changes was observed in myotubes treated with TNF- alone. Several-fold significant increases in CCL-2, COX-2, IL-8, and TNF- expression in myotubes were observed with MIA PaCa-2 coculture. The c9,t11 CLA isomer significantly decreased basal expression of TNF- in myotubes and could ameliorate its tumor-induced rise. The study provides insight into the anti-inflammatory and antiproliferative actions of CLA and its application as a therapeutic agent in inflammatory disease states.<br /

Increased Serum and Musculotendinous Fibrogenic Proteins following Persistent Low-Grade Inflammation in a Rat Model of Long-Term Upper Extremity Overuse.

We examined the relationship between grip strength declines and muscle-tendon responses induced by long-term performance of a high-repetition, low-force (HRLF) reaching task in rats. We hypothesized that grip strength declines would correlate with inflammation, fibrosis and degradation in flexor digitorum muscles and tendons. Grip strength declined after training, and further in weeks 18 and 24, in reach limbs of HRLF rats. Flexor digitorum tissues of reach limbs showed low-grade increases in inflammatory cytokines: IL-1β after training and in week 18, IL-1α in week 18, TNF-α and IL-6 after training and in week 24, and IL-10 in week 24, with greater increases in tendons than muscles. Similar cytokine increases were detected in serum with HRLF: IL-1α and IL-10 in week 18, and TNF-α and IL-6 in week 24. Grip strength correlated inversely with IL-6 in muscles, tendons and serum, and TNF-α in muscles and serum. Four fibrogenic proteins, TGFB1, CTGF, PDGFab and PDGFbb, and hydroxyproline, a marker of collagen synthesis, increased in serum in HRLF weeks 18 or 24, concomitant with epitendon thickening, increased muscle and tendon TGFB1 and CTGF. A collagenolytic gelatinase, MMP2, increased by week 18 in serum, tendons and muscles of HRLF rats. Grip strength correlated inversely with TGFB1 in muscles, tendons and serum; with CTGF-immunoreactive fibroblasts in tendons; and with MMP2 in tendons and serum. Thus, motor declines correlated with low-grade systemic and musculotendinous inflammation throughout task performance, and increased fibrogenic and degradative proteins with prolonged task performance. Serum TNF-α, IL-6, TGFB1, CTGF and MMP2 may serve as serum biomarkers of work-related musculoskeletal disorders, although further studies in humans are needed

TDP-43 Depletion in Microglia Promotes Amyloid Clearance but Also Induces Synapse Loss

Microglia coordinate various functions in the central nervous system ranging from removing synaptic connections, to maintaining brain homeostasis by monitoring neuronal function, and clearing protein aggregates across the lifespan. Here we investigated whether increased microglial phagocytic activity that clears amyloid can also cause pathological synapse loss. We identified TDP-43, a DNA-RNA binding protein encoded by the Tardbp gene, as a strong regulator of microglial phagocytosis. Mice lacking TDP-43 in microglia exhibit reduced amyloid load in a model of Alzheimer's disease (AD) but at the same time display drastic synapse loss, even in the absence of amyloid. Clinical examination from TDP-43 pathology cases reveal a considerably reduced prevalence of AD and decreased amyloid pathology compared to age-matched healthy controls, confirming our experimental results. Overall, our data suggest that dysfunctional microglia might play a causative role in the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative disorders, critically modulating the early stages of cognitive decline

Value of hospital antimicrobial stewardship programs [ASPs]:a systematic review

Abstract Background Hospital antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs) aim to promote judicious use of antimicrobials to combat antimicrobial resistance. For ASPs to be developed, adopted, and implemented, an economic value assessment is essential. Few studies demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of ASPs. This systematic review aimed to evaluate the economic and clinical impact of ASPs. Methods An update to the Dik et al. systematic review (2000–2014) was conducted on EMBASE and Medline using PRISMA guidelines. The updated search was limited to primary research studies in English (30 September 2014–31 December 2017) that evaluated patient and/or economic outcomes after implementation of hospital ASPs including length of stay (LOS), antimicrobial use, and total (including operational and implementation) costs. Results One hundred forty-six studies meeting inclusion criteria were included. The majority of these studies were conducted within the last 5 years in North America (49%), Europe (25%), and Asia (14%), with few studies conducted in Africa (3%), South America (3%), and Australia (3%). Most studies were conducted in hospitals with 500–1000 beds and evaluated LOS and change in antibiotic expenditure, the majority of which showed a decrease in LOS (85%) and antibiotic expenditure (92%). The mean cost-savings varied by hospital size and region after implementation of ASPs. Average cost savings in US studies were $732 per patient (range:$2.50 to $2640), with similar trends exhibited in European studies. The key driver of cost savings was from reduction in LOS. Savings were higher among hospitals with comprehensive ASPs which included therapy review and antibiotic restrictions. Conclusions Our data indicates that hospital ASPs have significant value with beneficial clinical and economic impacts. More robust published data is required in terms of implementation, LOS, and overall costs so that decision-makers can make a stronger case for investing in ASPs, considering competing priorities. Such data on ASPs in lower- and middle-income countries is limited and requires urgent attention