A past discharge assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France – Part 2: Impact on the ensemble streamflow forecasts

International audienceThe use of ensemble streamflow forecasts is developing in the international flood forecasting services. Ensemble streamflow forecast systems can provide more accurate forecasts and useful information about the uncertainty of the forecasts, thus improving the assessment of risks. Nevertheless, these systems, like all hydrological forecasts, suffer from errors on initialization or on meteorological data, which lead to hydrological prediction errors. This article, which is the second part of a 2-part article, concerns the impacts of initial states, improved by a streamflow assimilation system, on an ensemble streamflow prediction system over France. An assimilation system was implemented to improve the streamflow analysis of the SAFRAN-ISBAMODCOU (SIM) hydro-meteorological suite, which initializes the ensemble streamflow forecasts at M´et´eo-France. This assimilation system, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) and modifying the initial soil moisture states, showed an improvement of the streamflow analysis with low soil moisture increments. The final states of this suite were used to initialize the ensemble streamflow forecasts of M´et´eo-France, which are based on the SIM model and use the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 10-day Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Two different configurations of the assimilation system were used in this study: the first with the classical SIM model and the second using improved soil physics in ISBA. The effects of the assimilation system on the ensemble streamflow forecasts were assessed for these two configurations, and a comparison was made with the original (i.e. without data assimilation and without the improved physics) ensemble streamflow forecasts. It is shown that the assimilation system improved most of the statistical scores usually computed for the validation of ensemble predictions (RMSE, Brier Skill Score and its decomposition, Ranked Probability Skill Score, False Alarm Rate, etc.), especially for the first few days of the time range. The assimilation was slightly more efficient for small basins than for large ones

Predictability of soil moisture and river flows over France for the spring season

Sources of spring predictability of the hydrological system over France were studied on a seasonal time scale over the 1960–2005 period. Two random sampling experiments were set up in order to test the relative importance of the land surface initial state and the atmospheric forcing. The experiments were based on the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU hydrometeorological suite which computed soil moisture and river flow forecasts over a 8-km grid and more than 880 river-gauging stations. Results showed that the predictability of hydrological variables primarily depended on the seasonal atmospheric forcing (mostly temperature and total precipitation) over most plains, whereas it mainly depended on snow cover over high mountains. However, the Seine catchment area was an exception as the skill mainly came from the initial state of its large and complex aquifers. Seasonal meteorological hindcasts with the Météo-France ARPEGE climate model were then used to force the ISBA-MODCOU hydrological model and obtain seasonal hydrological forecasts from 1960 to 2005 for the entire March-April-May period. Scores from this seasonal hydrological forecasting suite could thus be compared with the random atmospheric experiment. Soil moisture and river flow skill scores clearly showed the added value in seasonal meteorological forecasts in the north of France, contrary to the Mediterranean area where values worsened

Impact of Preoperative Chemotherapy Features on Patient Outcomes after Hepatectomy for Initially Unresectable Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases: A LiverMetSurvey Analysis

Background: Prognostic factors have been extensively reported after resection of colorectal liver metastases (CLM); however, specific analyses of the impact of preoperative systemic anticancer therapy (PO-SACT) features on outcomes is lacking. Methods: For this real-world evidence study, we used prospectively collected data within the international surgical LiverMetSurvey database from all patients with initially-irresectable CLM. The main outcome was Overall Survival (OS) after surgery. Disease-free (DFS) and hepatic-specific relapse-free survival (HS-RFS) were secondary outcomes. PO-SACT features included duration (cumulative number of cycles), choice of the cytotoxic backbone (oxaliplatin- or irinotecan-based), fluoropyrimidine (infusional or oral) and addition or not of targeted monoclonal antibodies (anti-EGFR or anti-VEGF). Results: A total of 2793 patients in the database had received PO-SACT for initially irresectable diseases. Short (<7 or <13 cycles in 1st or 2nd line) PO-SACT duration was independently associated with longer OS (HR: 0.85 p = 0.046), DFS (HR: 0.81; p = 0.016) and HS-RFS (HR: 0.80; p = 0.05). All other PO-SACT features yielded basically comparable results. Conclusions: In this international cohort, provided that PO-SACT allowed conversion to resectability in initially irresectable CLM, surgery performed as soon as technically feasible resulted in the best outcomes. When resection was achieved, our findings indicate that the choice of PO-SACT regimen had a marginal if any, impact on outcomes.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Liver-First Approach for Synchronous Colorectal Metastases : Analysis of 7360 Patients from the LiverMetSurvey Registry

Background The liver-first approach in patients with synchronous colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) has gained wide consensus but its role is still to be clarified. We aimed to elucidate the outcome of the liver-first approach and to identify patients who benefit at most from this approach. Methods Patients with synchronous CRLM included in the LiverMetSurvey registry between 2000 and 2017 were considered. Three strategies were analyzed, i.e. liver-first approach, colorectal resection followed by liver resection (primary-first), and simultaneous resection, and three groups of patients were analyzed, i.e. solitary metastasis, multiple unilobar CRLM, and multiple bilobar CRLM. In each group, patients from the three strategy groups were matched by propensity score analysis. Results Overall, 7360 patients were analyzed: 4415 primary-first, 552 liver-first, and 2393 simultaneous resections. Compared with the other groups, the liver-first group had more rectal tumors (58.0% vs. 31.2%) and higher hepatic tumor burden (more than three CRLMs: 34.8% vs. 24.0%; size > 50 mm: 35.6% vs. 22.8%; p < 0.001). In patients with solitary and multiple unilobar CRLM, survival was similar regardless of treatment strategy, whereas in patients with multiple bilobar metastases, the liver-first approach was an independent positive prognostic factor, both in unmatched patients (3-year survival 65.9% vs. primary-first 60.4%: hazard ratio [HR] 1.321, p = 0.031; vs. simultaneous resections 54.4%: HR 1.624, p < 0.001) and after propensity score matching (vs. primary-first: HR 1.667, p = 0.017; vs. simultaneous resections: HR 2.278, p = 0.003). Conclusion In patients with synchronous CRLM, the surgical strategy should be decided according to the hepatic tumor burden. In the presence of multiple bilobar CRLM, the liver-first approach is associated with longer survival than the alternative approaches and should be evaluated as standard.Peer reviewe

Resection of colorectal liver metastases after second-line chemotherapy : is it worthwhile? A LiverMetSurvey analysis of 6415 patients

Purpose: Patient outcome after resection of colorectal liver metastases (CLM) following second-line preoperative chemotherapy (PCT) performed for insufficient response or toxicity of the first-line, is little known and has here been compared to the outcome following first-line. Patients and methods: From January 2005 to June 2013, 5624 and 791 consecutive patients of a prospective international cohort received 1 and 2 PCT lines before CLM resection (group 1 and 2, respectively). Survival and prognostic factors were analysed. Results: After a mean follow-up of 30.1 months, there was no difference in survival from CLM diagnosis (median, 3-, and 5-year overall survival [OS]: 58.6 months, 76% and 49% in group 2 versus 58.9 months, 71% and 49% in group 1, respectively, P = 0.32). After hepatectomy, disease-free survival (DFS) was however shorter in group 2: 17.2 months, 27% and 15% versus 19.4 months, 32% and 23%, respectively (P = 0.001). Among the initially unresectable patients of group 1 and 2, no statistical difference in OS or DFS was observed. Independent predictors of worse OS in group 2 were positive primary lymph nodes, extrahepatic disease, tumour progression on second line, R2 resection and number of hepatectomies/year Conclusion: CLM resection following second-line PCT, after oncosurgically favourable selection, could bring similar OS compared to what observed after first-line. For initially unresectable patients, OS or DFS is comparable between first-and second-line PCT. Surgery should not be denied after the failure of first-line chemotherapy. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Update of complications and functional outcome of the ileo-pouch anal anastomosis: overview of evidence and meta-analysis of 96 observational studies

Item does not contain fulltextOBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive update of the outcome of the ileo-pouch anal anastomosis (IPAA). DATA SOURCES: An extensive search in PubMed, EMBASE, and The Cochrane Library was conducted. STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION: All studies published after 2000 reporting on complications or functional outcome after a primary open IPAA procedure for UC or FAP were selected. Study characteristics, functional outcome, and complications were extracted. DATA SYNTHESIS: A review with similar methodology conducted 10 years earlier was used to evaluate developments in outcome over time. Pooled estimates were compared using a random-effects logistic meta-analyzing technique. Analyses focusing on the effect of time of study conductance, centralization, and variation in surgical techniques were performed. RESULTS: Fifty-three studies including 14,966 patients were included. Pooled rates of pouch failure and pelvic sepsis were 4.3% (95% CI, 3.5-6.3) and 7.5% (95% CI 6.1-9.1), respectively. Compared to studies published before 2000, a reduction of 2.5% was observed in the pouch failure rate (p = 0.0038). Analysis on the effect of the time of study conductance confirmed a decline in pouch failure. Functional outcome remained stable over time, with a 24-h defecation frequency of 5.9 (95% CI, 5.0-6.9). Technical surgery aspects did not have an important effect on outcome. CONCLUSION: This review provides up to date outcome estimates of the IPAA procedure that can be useful as reference values for practice and research. It is also shows a reduction in pouch failure over time.1 juli 201

Management of intra-abdominal infections : recommendations by the WSES 2016 consensus conference

This paper reports on the consensus conference on the management of intra-abdominal infections (IAIs) which was held on July 23, 2016, in Dublin, Ireland, as a part of the annual World Society of Emergency Surgery (WSES) meeting. This document covers all aspects of the management of IAIs. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation recommendation is used, and this document represents the executive summary of the consensus conference findings.Peer reviewe

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700