The Hidden Business Costs Of European Union Enlargement: The Case Of The Czech Republic

Enlargement of the European Union (EU) will take place on May 1, 2004. Nine countries from Eastern Europe will become full fledged members of the union. While these countries have met the EU accession criteria many are not really ready to compete with Western European companies. One of the major impediments for firms in the East is the hidden costs of joining the union. This paper explores some of the case of the Czech Republic, what hidden costs are currently apparent, and suggests changes that would make the Czech Republic more competitive in Western Europe

Linear Response, Validity of Semi-Classical Gravity, and the Stability of Flat Space

A quantitative test for the validity of the semi-classical approximation in gravity is given. The criterion proposed is that solutions to the semi-classical Einstein equations should be stable to linearized perturbations, in the sense that no gauge invariant perturbation should become unbounded in time. A self-consistent linear response analysis of these perturbations, based upon an invariant effective action principle, necessarily involves metric fluctuations about the mean semi-classical geometry, and brings in the two-point correlation function of the quantum energy-momentum tensor in a natural way. This linear response equation contains no state dependent divergences and requires no new renormalization counterterms beyond those required in the leading order semi-classical approximation. The general linear response criterion is applied to the specific example of a scalar field with arbitrary mass and curvature coupling in the vacuum state of Minkowski spacetime. The spectral representation of the vacuum polarization function is computed in n dimensional Minkowski spacetime, and used to show that the flat space solution to the semi-classical Einstein equations for n=4 is stable to all perturbations on distance scales much larger than the Planck length.Comment: 22 pages: This is a significantly expanded version of gr-qc/0204083, with two additional sections and two new appendices giving a complete, explicit example of the semi-classical stability criterion proposed in the previous pape

Finite-size effects in heavy halo nuclei from effective field theory

Halo/Cluster Effective Field Theory describes halo/cluster nuclei in an expansion in the small ratio of the size of the core(s) to the size of the system. Even in the point-particle limit, neutron-halo nuclei have a finite charge radius, because their center of mass does not coincide with their center of charge. This point-particle contribution decreases as 1 / Ac, where Ac is the mass number of the core, and diminishes in importance compared to other effects, e.g., the size of the core to which the neutrons are bound. Here we propose that for heavy cores the EFT expansion should account for the small factors of 1 / Ac. As a specific example, we discuss the implications of this organizational scheme for the inclusion of finite-size effects in expressions for the charge radii of halo nuclei. We show in particular that a short-range operator could be the dominant effect in the charge radius of one-neutron halos bound by a P-wave interaction. The point-particle contribution remains the leading piece of the charge radius for one-proton halos, and so Halo EFT has more predictive power in that case

A signal detection model for quantifying over-regularization in non-linear image reconstruction

Purpose: Many useful image quality metrics for evaluating linear image reconstruction techniques do not apply to or are difficult to interpret for non-linear image reconstruction. The vast majority of metrics employed for evaluating non-linear image reconstruction are based on some form of global image fidelity, such as image root mean square error (RMSE). Use of such metrics can lead to over-regularization in the sense that they can favor removal of subtle details in the image. To address this shortcoming, we develop an image quality metric based on signal detection that serves as a surrogate to the qualitative loss of fine image details. Methods: The metric is demonstrated in the context of a breast CT simulation, where different equal-dose configurations are considered. The configurations differ in the number of projections acquired. Image reconstruction is performed with a non-linear algorithm based on total variation constrained least-squares (TV-LSQ). The images are evaluated visually, with image RMSE, and with the proposed signal-detection based metric. The latter uses a small signal, and computes detectability in the sinogram and in the reconstructed image. Loss of signal detectability through the image reconstruction process is taken as a quantitative measure of loss of fine details in the image. Results: Loss of signal detectability is seen to correlate well with the blocky or patchy appearance due to over-regularization with TV-LSQ, and this trend runs counter to the image RMSE metric, which tends to favor the over-regularized images. Conclusions: The proposed signal detection based metric provides an image quality assessment that is complimentary to that of image RMSE. Using the two metrics in concert may yield a useful prescription for determining CT algorithm and configuration parameters when non-linear image reconstruction is used.Comment: 25 pages, 10 figures. Submitted to Medical Physic

A directional total variation minimization algorithm for isotropic resolution in digital breast tomosynthesis

An optimization-based image reconstruction algorithm is developed for contrast enhanced digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) using dual-energy scanning. The algorithm minimizes directional total variation (TV) with a data discrepancy and non-negativity constraints. Iodinated contrast agent (ICA) imaging is performed by reconstructing images from dual-energy DBT data followed by weighted subtraction. Physical DBT data is acquired with a Siemens Mammomat scanner of a structured breast phantom with ICA inserts. Results are shown for both directional TV minimization and filtered back-projection for reference. It is seen that directional TV is able to substantially reduce depth blur for the ICA objects.Comment: Proceedings paper for accepted contribution to the 8th International Conference on Image Formation in X-Ray Computed Tomography (https://www.ct-meeting.org

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation