Precision reconstruction of the cold dark matter-neutrino relative velocity fromN-body simulations

Discovering the mass of neutrinos is a principle goal in high energy physics and cosmology. In addition to cosmological measurements based on two-point statistics, the neutrino mass can also be estimated by observations of neutrino wakes resulting from the relative motion between cold dark matter (CDM) and neutrinos. Such a detection relies on an accurate reconstruction of the CDM-neutrino relative velocity which is affected by nonlinear structure growth and galaxy bias. We investigate our ability to reconstruct this relative velocity using large N-body simulations where we evolve neutrinos as distinct particles alongside the CDM. We find that the CDM velocity power spectrum is overpredicted by linear theory whereas the neutrino velocity power spectrum is underpredicted. The magnitude of the relative velocity observed in the simulations is found to be lower than what is predicted in linear theory. Since neither the CDM nor the neutrino velocity fields are directly observable from galaxy or 21 cm surveys, we test the accuracy of a reconstruction algorithm based on halo density fields and linear theory. Assuming prior knowledge of the halo bias, we find that the reconstructed relative velocities are highly correlated with the simulated ones with correlation coefficients of 0.94, 0.93, 0.92 and 0.88 for neutrinos of mass 0.05, 0.1, 0.2 and 0.4 eV. We confirm that the relative velocity field reconstructed from large scale structure observations such as galaxy or 21 cm surveys can be accurate in direction and, with appropriate scaling, magnitude

Optimization and Quality Assessment of Baryon Pasting for Intracluster Gas using the Borg Cube Simulation

Synthetic datasets generated from large-volume gravity-only simulations are an important tool in the calibration of cosmological analyses. Their creation often requires accurate inference of baryonic observables from the dark matter field. We explore the effectiveness of a baryon pasting algorithm in providing precise estimations of three-dimensional gas thermodynamic properties based on gravity-only simulations. We use the Borg Cube, a pair of simulations originating from identical initial conditions, with one run evolved as a gravity-only simulation, and the other incorporating non-radiative hydrodynamics. Matching halos in both simulations enables comparisons of gas properties on an individual halo basis. This comparative analysis allows us to fit for the model parameters that yield the closest agreement between the gas properties in both runs. To capture the redshift evolution of these parameters, we perform the analysis at five distinct redshift steps, spanning from $z=0$ to $2$. We find that the investigated algorithm, utilizing information solely from the gravity-only simulation, achieves few-percent accuracy in reproducing the median intracluster gas pressure and density, albeit with a scatter of approximately 20%, for cluster-scale objects up to $z=2$. We measure the scaling relation between integrated Compton parameter and cluster mass ($Y_{500c} | M_{500c}$), and find that the imprecision of baryon pasting adds less than 5% to the intrinsic scatter measured in the hydrodynamic simulation. We provide best-fitting values and their redshift evolution, and discuss future investigations that will be undertaken to extend this work.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, 3 tables; accepted in the Open Journal of Astrophysic

Effectiveness and reach of a directed-population approach to improving dental health and reducing inequalities: a cross sectional study

Background Childsmile School adopts a directed-population approach to target fluoride varnish applications to 20% of the primary one (P1) population in priority schools selected on the basis of the proportion of enrolled children considered to be at increased-risk of developing dental caries. The study sought to compare the effectiveness of four different methods for identifying individuals most in need when a directed-population approach is taken. <p></p> Methods The 2008 Basic National Dental Inspection Programme (BNDIP) cross-sectional P1 Scottish epidemiological survey dataset was used to model four methods and test three definitions of increased-risk. Effectiveness was determined by the positive predictive value (PPV) and explored in relation to 1-sensitivity and 1-specificity. <p></p> Results Complete data was available on 43470 children (87% of the survey). At the Scotland level, at least half (50%) of the children targeted were at increased-risk irrespective of the method used to target or the definition of increased-risk. There was no one method across all definitions of <i>increased-risk</i> that maximised PPV. Instead, PPV was highest when the targeting method complimented the definition of <i>increased-risk</i>. There was a higher percentage of children at <i>increased-risk</i> who were not targeted (1-sensitivity) when caries experience (rather than deprivation) was used to define <i>increased-risk</i>, irrespective of the method used for targeting. Over all three definitions of <i>increased-risk</i>, there was no one method that minimised (1-sensitivity) although this was lowest when the method and definition of <i>increased-risk</i> were complimentary. The false positive rate (1-specificity) for all methods and all definitions of <i>increased-risk</i> was consistently low (<20%), again being lowest when the method and definition of <i>increased-risk</i> were complimentary. <p></p> Conclusion Developing a method to reach all (or even the vast majority) of individuals at <i>increased-risk</i> defined by either caries experience or deprivation is difficult using a directed-population approach at a group level. There is a need for a wider debate between politicians and public health experts to decide how best to reach those most at need of intervention to improve health and reduce inequalities. <p></p&gt

Effects of alteplase for acute stroke on the distribution of functional outcomes: a pooled analysis of 9 trials

Background—Thrombolytic therapy with intravenous alteplase within 4.5 hours of ischemic stroke onset increases the overall likelihood of an excellent outcome (no, or nondisabling, symptoms). Any improvement in functional outcome distribution has value, and herein we provide an assessment of the effect of alteplase on the distribution of the functional level by treatment delay, age, and stroke severity. Methods—Prespecified pooled analysis of 6756 patients from 9 randomized trials comparing alteplase versus placebo/open control. Ordinal logistic regression models assessed treatment differences after adjustment for treatment delay, age, stroke severity, and relevant interaction term(s). Results—Treatment with alteplase was beneficial for a delay in treatment extending to 4.5 hours after stroke onset, with a greater benefit with earlier treatment. Neither age nor stroke severity significantly influenced the slope of the relationship between benefit and time to treatment initiation. For the observed case mix of patients treated within 4.5 hours of stroke onset (mean 3 hours and 20 minutes), the net absolute benefit from alteplase (ie, the difference between those who would do better if given alteplase and those who would do worse) was 55 patients per 1000 treated (95% confidence interval, 13–91; P=0.004). Conclusions—Treatment with intravenous alteplase initiated within 4.5 hours of stroke onset increases the chance of achieving an improved level of function for all patients across the age spectrum, including the over 80s and across all severities of stroke studied (top versus bottom fifth means: 22 versus 4); the earlier that treatment is initiated, the greater the benefit

Study protocol : the empirical investigation of methods to correct for measurement error in biobanks with dietary assessment

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Lifestyle index for mortality prediction using multiple ageing cohorts in the USA, UK and Europe

Current mortality prediction indexes are mainly based on functional morbidity and comorbidity, with limited information for risk prevention. This study aimed to develop and validate a modifiable lifestyle-based mortality predication index for older adults. Data from 51,688 participants (56% women) aged ≥50 years in 2002 Health and Retirement Study, 2002 English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and 2004 Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe were used to estimate coefficients of the index with cohort-stratified Cox regression. Models were validated across studies and compared to the Lee index (having comorbid and morbidity predictors). Over an average of 11-year follow-up, 10,240 participants died. The lifestyle index includes smoking, drinking, exercising, sleep quality, BMI, sex and age; showing adequate model performance in internal validation (C-statistic 0.79; D-statistic 1.94; calibration slope 1.13) and in all combinations of internal-external cross-validation. It outperformed Lee index (e.g. differences in C-statistic = 0.01, D-statistic = 0.17, P < 0.001) consistently across health status. The lifestyle index stratified participants into varying mortality risk groups, with those in the top quintile having 13.5% excess absolute mortality risk over 10 years than those in the bottom 50th centile. Our lifestyle index with easy-assessable behavioural factors and improved generalizability may maximize its usability for personalized risk management

Lack of effect of lowering LDL cholesterol on cancer: meta-analysis of individual data from 175,000 people in 27 randomised trials of statin therapy

&lt;p&gt;Background: Statin therapy reduces the risk of occlusive vascular events, but uncertainty remains about potential effects on cancer. We sought to provide a detailed assessment of any effects on cancer of lowering LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) with a statin using individual patient records from 175,000 patients in 27 large-scale statin trials.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Methods and Findings: Individual records of 134,537 participants in 22 randomised trials of statin versus control (median duration 4.8 years) and 39,612 participants in 5 trials of more intensive versus less intensive statin therapy (median duration 5.1 years) were obtained. Reducing LDL-C with a statin for about 5 years had no effect on newly diagnosed cancer or on death from such cancers in either the trials of statin versus control (cancer incidence: 3755 [1.4% per year [py]] versus 3738 [1.4% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.96-1.05]; cancer mortality: 1365 [0.5% py] versus 1358 [0.5% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.93–1.08]) or in the trials of more versus less statin (cancer incidence: 1466 [1.6% py] vs 1472 [1.6% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.93–1.07]; cancer mortality: 447 [0.5% py] versus 481 [0.5% py], RR 0.93 [95% CI 0.82–1.06]). Moreover, there was no evidence of any effect of reducing LDL-C with statin therapy on cancer incidence or mortality at any of 23 individual categories of sites, with increasing years of treatment, for any individual statin, or in any given subgroup. In particular, among individuals with low baseline LDL-C (&#60;2 mmol/L), there was no evidence that further LDL-C reduction (from about 1.7 to 1.3 mmol/L) increased cancer risk (381 [1.6% py] versus 408 [1.7% py]; RR 0.92 [99% CI 0.76–1.10]).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusions: In 27 randomised trials, a median of five years of statin therapy had no effect on the incidence of, or mortality from, any type of cancer (or the aggregate of all cancer).&lt;/p&gt

Successful up-scaled population interventions to reduce risk factors for non-communicable disease in adults: Results from the International Community Interventions for Health (CIH) project in China, India and Mexico

Background: Non-communicable disease (NCD) is increasing rapidly in low and middle-income countries (LMIC), and is associated with tobacco use, unhealthy diet and physical inactivity. There is little evidence for up-scaled interventions at the population level to reduce risk in LMIC. Methods: The Community Interventions for Health (CIH) program was a population-scale community intervention study with comparator population group undertaken in communities in China, India, and Mexico, each with populations between 150,000-250,000. Culturally appropriate interventions were delivered over 18-24 months. Two independent cross-sectional surveys of a stratified sample of adults aged 18-64 years were conducted at baseline and follow-up. Results: A total of 6,194 adults completed surveys at baseline, and 6,022 at follow-up. The proportion meeting physical activity recommendations decreased significantly in the control group (C) (44.1 to 30.2%), but not in the intervention group (I) (38.0 to 36.1%), p<0.001. Those eating ≥5 portions of fruit and vegetables daily decreased significantly in C (19.2 to 17.2%), but did not change in I (20.0 to 19.6%,), p=0.013. The proportion adding salt to food was unchanged in C (24.9 to 25.3%) and decreased in I (25.9 to 19.6%), p<0.001. Prevalence of obesity increased in C (8.3 to 11.2%), with no change in I (8.6 to 9.7%,) p=0.092. Concerning tobacco, for men the difference-in-difference analysis showed that the reduction in use was significantly greater in I compared to C (p=0.014) Conclusions: Up-scaling known health promoting interventions designed to reduce the incidence of NCD in whole communities in LMIC is feasible, and has measurable beneficial outcomes on risk factors for NCD, namely tobacco use, diet, and physical inactivity

Global ozone and air quality: a multi-model assessment of risks to human health and crops

Within ACCENT, a European Network of Excellence, eighteen atmospheric models from the U.S., Europe, and Japan calculated present (2000) and future (2030) concentrations of ozone at the Earth's surface with hourly temporal resolution. Comparison of model results with surface ozone measurements in 14 world regions indicates that levels and seasonality of surface ozone in North America and Europe are characterized well by global models, with annual average biases typically within 5–10 nmol/mol. However, comparison with rather sparse observations over some regions suggest that most models overestimate annual ozone by 15–20 nmol/mol in some locations. Two scenarios from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and one from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) have been implemented in the models. This study focuses on changes in near-surface ozone and their effects on human health and vegetation. Different indices and air quality standards are used to characterise air quality. We show that often the calculated changes in the different indices are closely inter-related. Indices using lower thresholds are more consistent between the models, and are recommended for global model analysis. Our analysis indicates that currently about two-thirds of the regions considered do not meet health air quality standards, whereas only 2–4 regions remain below the threshold. Calculated air quality exceedances show moderate deterioration by 2030 if current emissions legislation is followed and slight improvements if current emissions reduction technology is used optimally. For the "business as usual" scenario severe air quality problems are predicted. We show that model simulations of air quality indices are particularly sensitive to how well ozone is represented, and improved accuracy is needed for future projections. Additional measurements are needed to allow a more quantitative assessment of the risks to human health and vegetation from changing levels of surface ozone

Assessing prediction of diabetes in older adults using different adiposity measures: a 7 year prospective study in 6,923 older men and women

The aim of this study was to examine whether waist circumference (WC) or WHR improve diabetes prediction beyond body mass index in older men and women, and to define optimal cut-off points. In this prospective study, non-diabetic men (n = 3,519) and women (n = 3,404) aged 60-79 years were followed up for 7 years. There were 169 and 128 incident cases of type 2 diabetes in men and women, respectively. BMI, WC and WHR all showed strong associations with incident type 2 diabetes independent of potential confounders. In men, the adjusted relative risks (top vs lowest quartile) were 4.71 (95% CI 2.45-9.03) for BMI, 3.53 (95% CI 1.92-6.48) for WC and 2.76 (95% CI 1.58-4.82) for WHR. For women, the corresponding relative risks were 4.10 (95% CI 2.16-7.79), 12.18 (95% CI 4.83-30.74) and 5.61 (95% CI 2.84-11.09) for BMI, WC and WHR, respectively. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis revealed similar associations for BMI and WC in predicting diabetes in men (AUC = 0.726 and 0.713, respectively); WHR was the weakest predictor (AUC = 0.656). In women, WC was a significantly stronger predictor (AUC = 0.780) than either BMI (AUC = 0.733) or WHR (AUC = 0.728; p &lt; 0.01 for both). Inclusion of both WC and BMI did not improve prediction beyond BMI alone in men or WC alone in women. Optimal sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of type 2 diabetes was observed at a WC of 100 cm in men and 92 cm in women. In older men, BMI and WC yielded similar prediction of risk of type 2 diabetes, whereas WC was clearly a superior predictor in older wome