A One-dimensional Ensemble Forecast and Assimilation System for Fog Prediction

A probabilistic fog forecast system was designed based on two high resolution numerical 1-D models called COBEL and PAFOG. The 1-D models are coupled to several 3-D numerical weather prediction models and thus are able to consider the effects of advection. To deal with the large uncertainty inherent to fog forecasts, a whole ensemble of 1-D runs is computed using the two different numerical models and a set of different initial conditions in combination with distinct boundary conditions. Initial conditions are obtained from variational data assimilation, which optimally combines observations with a first guess taken from operational 3-D models. The design of the ensemble scheme computes members that should fairly well represent the uncertainty of the current meteorological regime. Verification for an entire fog season reveals the importance of advection in complex terrain. The skill of 1-D fog forecasts is significantly improved if advection is considered. Thus the probabilistic forecast system has the potential to support the forecaster and therefore to provide more accurate fog forecast

Analysis of Radiation Discretization for Modelling a Spark Gap for Surge Currents

In this paper we address a method for spectrally resolved radiation modelling in thermal plasmas encountered in surge protective devices based on spark gaps. Compared to most switching applications, power input and plasma pressure are much higher which leads to an optically thick plasma with line broadening and enhanced wall ablation. In this situation it is possible to capture the full effect of spectrally resolved radiation on plasma dynamics by performing line-by-line calculations with downsampled absorption spectra. We show that it is possible to achieve radiation convergence with 1000 lines. Approaches for a further reduction of calculation times using band-averaged models and $\kappa$-group models are discussed. The κ-group model is based upon a grouping of the absorption coefficients into subgroups with different ranges of κ before averaging. The spectral calculation results are compared to the approximative methods and significant differences for Rosseland means are observed

Influence of the Precipitating Energetic Particles on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate

We evaluate the influence of the galactic cosmic rays (GCR), solar proton events (SPE), and energetic electron precipitation (EEP) on chemical composition of the atmosphere, dynamics, and climate using the chemistry-climate model SOCOL. We have carried out two 46-year long runs. The reference run is driven by a widely employed forcing set and, for the experiment run, we have included additional sources of NO x and HO x caused by all considered energetic particles. The results show that the effects of the GCR, SPE, and EEP fluxes on the chemical composition are most pronounced in the polar mesosphere and upper stratosphere; however, they are also detectable and statistically significant in the lower atmosphere consisting of an ozone increase up to 3% in the troposphere and ozone depletion up to 8% in the middle stratosphere. The thermal effect of the ozone depletion in the stratosphere propagates down, leading to a warming by up to 1K averaged over 46years over Europe during the winter season. Our results suggest that the energetic particles are able to affect atmospheric chemical composition, dynamics, and climat

The LYRA Instrument Onboard PROBA2: Description and In-Flight Performance

The Large Yield Radiometer (LYRA) is an XUV-EUV-MUV (soft X-ray to mid-ultraviolet) solar radiometer onboard the European Space Agency PROBA2 mission that was launched in November 2009. LYRA acquires solar irradiance measurements at a high cadence (nominally 20 Hz) in four broad spectral channels, from soft X-ray to MUV, that have been chosen for their relevance to solar physics, space weather and aeronomy. In this article, we briefly review the design of the instrument, give an overview of the data products distributed through the instrument website, and describe the way that data are calibrated. We also briefly present a summary of the main fields of research currently under investigation by the LYRA consortium

SNP Assay Development for Linkage Map Construction, Anchoring Whole-Genome Sequence, and Other Genetic and Genomic Applications in Common Bean.

A total of 992,682 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was identified as ideal for Illumina Infinium II BeadChip design after sequencing a diverse set of 17 common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L) varieties with the aid of next-generation sequencing technology. From these, two BeadChips each with >5000 SNPs were designed. The BARCBean6K_1 BeadChip was selected for the purpose of optimizing polymorphism among market classes and, when possible, SNPs were targeted to sequence scaffolds in the Phaseolus vulgaris 14× genome assembly with sequence lengths >10 kb. The BARCBean6K_2 BeadChip was designed with the objective of anchoring additional scaffolds and to facilitate orientation of large scaffolds. Analysis of 267 F2 plants from a cross of varieties Stampede × Red Hawk with the two BeadChips resulted in linkage maps with a total of 7040 markers including 7015 SNPs. With the linkage map, a total of 432.3 Mb of sequence from 2766 scaffolds was anchored to create the Phaseolus vulgaris v1.0 assembly, which accounted for approximately 89% of the 487 Mb of available sequence scaffolds of the Phaseolus vulgaris v0.9 assembly. A core set of 6000 SNPs (BARCBean6K_3 BeadChip) with high genotyping quality and polymorphism was selected based on the genotyping of 365 dry bean and 134 snap bean accessions with the BARCBean6K_1 and BARCBean6K_2 BeadChips. The BARCBean6K_3 BeadChip is a useful tool for genetics and genomics research and it is widely used by breeders and geneticists in the United States and abroad

Theoretical Modeling of Starburst Galaxies

We have modeled a large sample of infrared starburst galaxies using both the PEGASE v2.0 and STARBURST99 codes to generate the spectral energy distribution of the young star clusters. PEGASE utilizes the Padova group tracks while STARBURST99 uses the Geneva group tracks, allowing comparison between the two. We used our MAPPINGS III code to compute photoionization models which include a self-consistent treatment of dust physics and chemical depletion. We use the standard optical diagnostic diagrams as indicators of the hardness of the EUV radiation field in these galaxies. These diagnostic diagrams are most sensitive to the spectral index of the ionizing radiation field in the 1-4 Rydberg region. We find that warm infrared starburst galaxies contain a relatively hard EUV field in this region. The PEGASE ionizing stellar continuum is harder in the 1-4 Rydberg range than that of STARBURST99. As the spectrum in this regime is dominated by emission from Wolf-Rayet (W-R) stars, this difference is most likely due to the differences in stellar atmosphere models used for the W-R stars. We believe that the stellar atmospheres in STARBURST99 are more applicable to the starburst galaxies in our sample, however they do not produce the hard EUV field in the 1-4 Rydberg region required by our observations. The inclusion of continuum metal blanketing in the models may be one solution. Supernova remnant (SNR) shock modeling shows that the contribution by mechanical energy from SNRs to the photoionization models is << 20%. The models presented here are used to derive a new theoretical classification scheme for starbursts and AGN galaxies based on the optical diagnostic diagrams.Comment: 36 pages, 16 figures, to be published in ApJ, July 20, 200

NLTE solar irradiance modeling with the COSI code

Context. The solar irradiance is known to change on time scales of minutes to decades, and it is suspected that its substantial fluctua- tions are partially responsible for climate variations. Aims. We are developing a solar atmosphere code that allows the physical modeling of the entire solar spectrum composed of quiet Sun and active regions. This code is a tool for modeling the variability of the solar irradiance and understanding its influence on Earth. Methods. We exploit further development of the radiative transfer code COSI that now incorporates the calculation of molecular lines. We validated COSI under the conditions of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) against the synthetic spectra calculated with the ATLAS code. The synthetic solar spectra were also calculated in non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) and compared to the available measured spectra. In doing so we have defined the main problems of the modeling, e.g., the lack of opacity in the UV part of the spectrum and the inconsistency in the calculations of the visible continuum level, and we describe a solution to these problems. Results. The improved version of COSI allows us to reach good agreement between the calculated and observed solar spectra as measured by SOLSTICE and SIM onboard the SORCE satellite and ATLAS 3 mission operated from the Space Shuttle. We find that NLTE effects are very important for the modeling of the solar spectrum even in the visual part of the spectrum and for its variability over the entire solar spectrum. In addition to the strong effect on the UV part of the spectrum, NLTE effects influence the concentration of the negative ion of hydrogen, which results in a significant change of the visible continuum level and the irradiance variability.Comment: 14 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy&Astrophysic

On emission-line spectra obtained from evolutionary synthesis models I. Dispersion in the ionising flux and Lowest Luminosity Limits

(abriged) Stellar clusters with the same general physical properties (e.g., total mass, age, and star-formation mode) may have very different stellar mass spectra due to the incomplete sampling of the underlying mass function; such differences are especially relevant in the high-mass tail due to the smaller absolute number of massive stars. The dispersion in the number of massive stars also produces a dispersion in the properties of the corresponding ionising spectra. In this paper, we lay the bases for the future analysis of this effect by evaluating the dispersion in the ionising fluxes of synthetic spectra. As an important consequence, we found that the intensities of synthetic fluxes at different ionisation edges are strongly correlated, a fact suggesting that no additional dispersion will result from the inclusion of sampling effects in the analysis of diagnostic diagrams; this is true for HII regions on all scales. Additionally, we find convincing suggestions that the He II lines are strongly affected by sampling, and so cannot be used to constrain the evolutionary status of stellar clusters. We also establish the range of applicability of synthesis models set by the Lowest Luminosity Limit for the ionising flux, that is the lowest limit in cluster mass for which synthesis models can be applied to predict ionising spectra. This limit marks the boundary between the situations in which the ionising flux is better modeled with a single star as opposed to a star cluster; this boundary depends on the metallicity and age, ranging from 10^3 to more than 10^6 Mo. As a consequence, synthesis models should not be used to try to account for the properties of clusters with smaller masses.Comment: Replaced with accepted versio

The Neon Abundance of Galactic Wolf-Rayet Stars

The fast, dense winds which characterize Wolf-Rayet (WR) stars obscure their underlying cores, and complicate the verification of evolving core and nucleosynthesis models. Core evolution can be probed by measuring abundances of wind-borne nuclear processed elements, partially overcoming this limitation. Using ground-based mid-infrared spectroscopy and the 12.81um [NeII] emission line measured in four Galactic WR stars, we estimate neon abundances and compare to long-standing predictions from evolved-core models. For the WC star WR121, this abundance is found to be >~11x the cosmic value, in good agreement with predictions. For the three less-evolved WN stars, little neon enhancement above cosmic values is measured, as expected. We discuss the impact of clumping in WR winds on this measurement, and the promise of using metal abundance ratios to eliminate sensitivity to wind density and ionization structure.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ; 9 pages, 2 color figures, 4 table