Inferring statistics of planet populations by means of automated microlensing searches

(abridged) The study of other worlds is key to understanding our own, and not only provides clues to the origin of our civilization, but also looks into its future. Rather than in identifying nearby systems and learning about their individual properties, the main value of the technique of gravitational microlensing is in obtaining the statistics of planetary populations within the Milky Way and beyond. Only the complementarity of different techniques currently employed promises to yield a complete picture of planet formation that has sufficient predictive power to let us understand how habitable worlds like ours evolve, and how abundant such systems are in the Universe. A cooperative three-step strategy of survey, follow-up, and anomaly monitoring of microlensing targets, realized by means of an automated expert system and a network of ground-based telescopes is ready right now to be used to obtain a first census of cool planets with masses reaching even below that of Earth orbiting K and M dwarfs in two distinct stellar populations, namely the Galactic bulge and disk. The hunt for extra-solar planets acts as a principal science driver for time-domain astronomy with robotic-telescope networks adopting fully-automated strategies. Several initiatives, both into facilities as well as into advanced software and strategies, are supposed to see the capabilities of gravitational microlensing programmes step-wise increasing over the next 10 years. New opportunities will show up with high-precision astrometry becoming available and studying the abundance of planets around stars in neighbouring galaxies becoming possible. Finally, we should not miss out on sharing the vision with the general public, and make its realization to profit not only the scientists but all the wider society.Comment: 10 pages in PDF format. White paper submitted to ESA's Exo-Planet Roadmap Advisory Team (EPR-AT); typos corrected. The embedded figures are available from the author on request. See also "Towards A Census of Earth-mass Exo-planets with Gravitational Microlensing" by J.P. Beaulieu, E. Kerins, S. Mao et al. (arXiv:0808.0005

A pair of temperate sub-Neptunes transiting the star EPIC 212737443

We report the validation of a new planetary system around the K3 star EPIC 212737443 using a combination of K2 photometry, follow-up high resolution imaging and spectroscopy. The system consists of two sub-Neptune sized transiting planets with radii of 2.6R⊕, and 2.7R⊕, with orbital periods of 13.6 days and 65.5 days, equilibrium temperatures of 536 K and 316 K respectively. In the context of validated K2 systems, the outer planet has the longest precisely measured orbital period, as well as the lowest equilibrium temperature for a planet orbiting a star of spectral type earlier than M. The two planets in this system have a mutual Hill radius of ΔRH = 36, larger than most other known transiting multi-planet systems, suggesting the existence of another (possibly non-transiting) planet, or that the system is not maximally packed

I. Flux and color variations of the quadruply imaged quasar HE 0435-1223

aims: We present VRi photometric observations of the quadruply imaged quasar HE 0435-1223, carried out with the Danish 1.54m telescope at the La Silla Observatory. Our aim was to monitor and study the magnitudes and colors of each lensed component as a function of time. methods: We monitored the object during two seasons (2008 and 2009) in the VRi spectral bands, and reduced the data with two independent techniques: difference imaging and PSF (Point Spread Function) fitting.results: Between these two seasons, our results show an evident decrease in flux by ~0.2-0.4 magnitudes of the four lensed components in the three filters. We also found a significant increase (~0.05-0.015) in their V-R and R-i color indices. conclusions: These flux and color variations are very likely caused by intrinsic variations of the quasar between the observed epochs. Microlensing effects probably also affect the brightest "A" lensed component.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figure

VLT, GROND and Danish telescope observations of transits in the TRAPPIST-1 system

Funding: UGJ acknowledges funding from the Novo Nordisk Foundation Interdisciplinary Synergy Programme grant no. NNF19OC0057374 and from the European Union H2020-MSCA-ITN-2019 under Grant no. 860470 (CHAMELEON). NP’s work was supported by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) through the research grants UIDB/04434/2020 and UIDP/04434/2020. PLP was partly funded by Programa de Iniciación en Investigación-Universidad de Antofagasta, INI-17-03.TRAPPIST-1 is an ultra-cool dwarf that hosts seven known transiting planets. We present photometry of the system obtained using three telescopes at ESO La Silla (the Danish 1.54-m telescope and the 2.2-m MPI telescope) and Paranal (Unit Telescope 1 of the Very Large Telescope). We obtained 18 light curves from the Danish telescope, eight from the 2.2-m and four from the VLT. From these we measure 25 times of mid-transit for four of the planets (b, c, f, g). These light curves and times of mid-transit will be useful in determining the masses and radii of the planets, which show variations in their transit times due to gravitational interactions.PostprintPeer reviewe

The Transiting System GJ1214: High-Precision Defocused Transit Observations and a Search for Evidence of Transit Timing Variation

Aims: We present 11 high-precision photometric transit observations of the transiting super-Earth planet GJ1214b. Combining these data with observations from other authors, we investigate the ephemeris for possible signs of transit timing variations (TTVs) using a Bayesian approach. Methods: The observations were obtained using telescope-defocusing techniques, and achieve a high precision with random errors in the photometry as low as 1mmag per point. To investigate the possibility of TTVs in the light curve, we calculate the overall probability of a TTV signal using Bayesian methods. Results: The observations are used to determine the photometric parameters and the physical properties of the GJ1214 system. Our results are in good agreement with published values. Individual times of mid-transit are measured with uncertainties as low as 10s, allowing us to reduce the uncertainty in the orbital period by a factor of two. Conclusions: A Bayesian analysis reveals that it is highly improbable that the observed transit times is explained by TTV, when compared with the simpler alternative of a linear ephemeris.Comment: Submitted to A&

High-precision photometry by telescope defocussing. III. The transiting planetary system WASP-2

We present high-precision photometry of three transits of the extrasolar planetary system WASP-2, obtained by defocussing the telescope, and achieving point-to-point scatters of between 0.42 and 0.73 mmag. These data are modelled using the JKTEBOP code, and taking into account the light from the recently-discovered faint star close to the system. The physical properties of the WASP-2 system are derived using tabulated predictions from five different sets of stellar evolutionary models, allowing both statistical and systematic errorbars to be specified. We find the mass and radius of the planet to be M_b = 0.847 +/- 0.038 +/- 0.024 Mjup and R_b = 1.044 +/- 0.029 +/- 0.015 Rjup. It has a low equilibrium temperature of 1280 +/- 21 K, in agreement with a recent finding that it does not have an atmospheric temperature inversion. The first of our transit datasets has a scatter of only 0.42 mmag with respect to the best-fitting light curve model, which to our knowledge is a record for ground-based observations of a transiting extrasolar planet.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 9 pages, 3 figures, 10 table

Gaia21blx: complete resolution of a binary microlensing event in the Galactic disk

Context. Gravitational microlensing is a method that is used to discover planet-hosting systems at distances of several kiloparsec in the Galactic disk and bulge. We present the analysis of a microlensing event reported by the Gaia photometric alert team that might have a bright lens. Aims. In order to infer the mass and distance to the lensing system, the parallax measurement at the position of Gaia21blx was used. In this particular case, the source and the lens have comparable magnitudes and we cannot attribute the parallax measured by Gaia to the lens or source alone. Methods. Since the blending flux is important, we assumed that the Gaia parallax is the flux-weighted average of the parallaxes of the lens and source. Combining this assumption with the information from the microlensing models and the finite source effects we were able to resolve all degeneracies and thus obtained the mass, distance, luminosities and projected kinematics of the binary lens and the source. Results. According to the best model, the lens is a binary system at 2.18 ± 0.07 kpc from Earth. It is composed of a G star with 0.95 ± 0.17 M ⊙ and a K star with 0.53 ± 0.07 M ⊙. The source is likely to be an F subgiant star at 2.38 ± 1.71 kpc with a mass of 1.10 ± 0.18 M ⊙. Both lenses and the source follow the kinematics of the thin-disk population. We also discuss alternative models, that are disfavored by the data or by prior expectations, however.</p

OGLE-2009-BLG-092/MOA-2009-BLG-137: A Dramatic Repeating Event With the Second Perturbation Predicted by Real-Time Analysis

We report the result of the analysis of a dramatic repeating gravitational microlensing event OGLE-2009-BLG-092/MOA-2009-BLG-137, for which the light curve is characterized by two distinct peaks with perturbations near both peaks. We find that the event is produced by the passage of the source trajectory over the central perturbation regions associated with the individual components of a wide-separation binary. The event is special in the sense that the second perturbation, occurring $\sim 100$ days after the first, was predicted by the real-time analysis conducted after the first peak, demonstrating that real-time modeling can be routinely done for binary and planetary events. With the data obtained from follow-up observations covering the second peak, we are able to uniquely determine the physical parameters of the lens system. We find that the event occurred on a bulge clump giant and it was produced by a binary lens composed of a K and M-type main-sequence stars. The estimated masses of the binary components are $M_1=0.69 \pm 0.11\ M_\odot$ and $M_2=0.36\pm 0.06\ M_\odot$, respectively, and they are separated in projection by $r_\perp=10.9\pm 1.3\ {\rm AU}$. The measured distance to the lens is $D_{\rm L}=5.6 \pm 0.7\ {\rm kpc}$. We also detect the orbital motion of the lens system.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, 1 tabl

Observational and Dynamical Characterization of Main-Belt Comet P/2010 R2 (La Sagra)

We present observations of comet-like main-belt object P/2010 R2 (La Sagra) obtained by Pan-STARRS 1 and the Faulkes Telescope-North on Haleakala in Hawaii, the University of Hawaii 2.2 m, Gemini-North, and Keck I telescopes on Mauna Kea, the Danish 1.54 m telescope at La Silla, and the Isaac Newton Telescope on La Palma. An antisolar dust tail is observed from August 2010 through February 2011, while a dust trail aligned with the object's orbit plane is also observed from December 2010 through August 2011. Assuming typical phase darkening behavior, P/La Sagra is seen to increase in brightness by >1 mag between August 2010 and December 2010, suggesting that dust production is ongoing over this period. These results strongly suggest that the observed activity is cometary in nature (i.e., driven by the sublimation of volatile material), and that P/La Sagra is therefore the most recent main-belt comet to be discovered. We find an approximate absolute magnitude for the nucleus of H_R=17.9+/-0.2 mag, corresponding to a nucleus radius of ~0.7 km, assuming an albedo of p=0.05. Using optical spectroscopy, we find no evidence of sublimation products (i.e., gas emission), finding an upper limit CN production rate of Q_CN<6x10^23 mol/s, from which we infer an H2O production rate of Q_H2O<10^26 mol/s. Numerical simulations indicate that P/La Sagra is dynamically stable for >100 Myr, suggesting that it is likely native to its current location and that its composition is likely representative of other objects in the same region of the main belt, though the relatively close proximity of the 13:6 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter and the (3,-2,-1) three-body mean-motion resonance with Jupiter and Saturn mean that dynamical instability on larger timescales cannot be ruled out.Comment: 23 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in A

Physical properties of near-Earth asteroid (2102) Tantalus from multiwavelength observations

Between 2010 and 2017 we have collected new optical and radar observations of the potentially hazardous asteroid (2102) Tantalus from the ESO NTT and Danish telescopes at the La Silla Observatory and from the Arecibo planetary radar. The object appears to be nearly spherical, showing a low amplitude light-curve variation and limited large-scale features in the radar images. The spin-state is difficult to constrain with the available data; including a certain light-curve subset significantly changes the spin-state estimates, and the uncertainties on period determination are significant. Constraining any change in rotation rate was not possible, despite decades of observations. The convex lightcurve-inversion model, with rotational pole at λ = 210 ± 41○ and β = −30 ± 35○, is more flattened than the two models reconstructed by including radar observations: with prograde (λ = 36 ± 23○, β = 30 ± 15○), and with retrograde rotation mode (λ = 180 ± 24○, β = −30 ± 16○). Using data from WISE we were able to determine that the prograde model produces the best agreement in size determination between radar and thermophysical modelling. Radar measurements indicate possible variation in surface properties, suggesting one side might have lower radar albedo and be rougher at centimetre-to-decimetre scale than the other. However, further observations are needed to confirm this. Thermophysical analysis indicates a surface covered in fine-grained regolith, consistent with radar albedo and polarisation ratio measurements. Finally, geophysical investigation of the spin-stability of Tantalus shows that it could be exceeding its critical spin-rate via cohesive forces