What is the most ecologically-meaningful metric of nitrogen deposition?

Nitrogen (N) deposition poses a severe risk to global terrestrial ecosystems, and managing this threat is an important focus for air pollution science and policy. To understand and manage the impacts of N deposition, we need metrics which accurately reflect N deposition pressure on the environment, and are responsive to changes in both N deposition and its impacts over time. In the UK, the metric typically used is a measure of total N deposition over 1–3 years, despite evidence that N accumulates in many ecosystems and impacts from low-level exposure can take considerable time to develop. Improvements in N deposition modelling now allow the development of metrics which incorporate the long-term history of pollution, as well as current exposure. Here we test the potential of alternative N deposition metrics to explain vegetation compositional variability in British semi-natural habitats. We assembled 36 individual datasets representing 48,332 occurrence records in 5479 quadrats from 1683 sites, and used redundancy analyses to test the explanatory power of 33 alternative N metrics based on national pollutant deposition models. We find convincing evidence for N deposition impacts across datasets and habitats, even when accounting for other large-scale drivers of vegetation change. Metrics that incorporate long-term N deposition trajectories consistently explain greater compositional variance than 1–3 year N deposition. There is considerable variability in results across habitats and between similar metrics, but overall we propose that a thirty-year moving window of cumulative deposition is optimal to represent impacts on plant communities for application in science, policy and management

Evaluation of a new secondary dose calculation software for Gamma Knife radiosurgery

Current available secondary dose calculation software for Gamma Knife radiosurgery falls short in situations where the target is shallow in depth or when the patient is positioned with a gamma angle other than 90°. In this work, we evaluate a new secondary calculation software which utilizes an innovative method to handle nonstandard gamma angles and image thresholding to render the skull for dose calculation. 800 treatment targets previously treated with our GammaKnife Icon system were imported from our treatment planning system (GammaPlan 11.0.3) and a secondary dose calculation was conducted. The agreement between the new calculations and the TPS were recorded and compared to the original secondary dose calculation agreement with the TPS using a Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. Further comparisons using a Mann-Whitney test were made for targets treated at a 90° gamma angle against those treated with either a 70 or 110 gamma angle for both the new and commercial secondary dose calculation systems. Correlations between dose deviations from the treatment planning system against average target depth were evaluated using a Kendall\u27s Tau correlation test for both programs. The Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test indicated a significant difference in the agreement between the two secondary calculations and the TPS, with a P-value \u3c 0.0001. With respect to patients treated at nonstandard gamma angles, the new software was largely independent of patient setup, while the commercial software showed a significant dependence (P-value \u3c 0.0001). The new secondary dose calculation software showed a moderate correlation with calculation depth, while the commercial software showed a weak correlation (Tau = -.322 and Tau = -.217 respectively). Overall, the new secondary software has better agreement with the TPS than the commercially available secondary calculation software over a range of diverse treatment geometries

Carbon-nitrogen interactions in European forests and semi-natural vegetation - Part 2: Untangling climatic, edaphic, management and nitrogen deposition effects on carbon sequestration potentials

The effects of atmospheric nitrogen deposition (N$_{dep}$) on carbon (C) sequestration in forests have often been assessed by relating differences in productivity to spatial variations of N$_{dep}$ across a large geographic domain. These correlations generally suffer from covariation of other confounding variables related to climate and other growth-limiting factors, as well as large uncertainties in total (dry+wet) reactive nitrogen (N$_{r}$) deposition.We propose a methodology for untangling the effects of N$_{dep}$ from those of meteorological variables, soil water retention capacity and stand age, using a mechanistic forest growth model in combination with eddy covariance CO$_{2}$ exchange fluxes from a Europe-wide network of 22 forest flux towers. Total N$_{r}$ deposition rates were estimated from local measurements as far as possible. The forest data were compared with data from natural or semi-natural, non-woody vegetation sites. The response of forest net ecosystem productivity to nitrogen deposition (dNEP= dN$_{dep}$) was estimated after accounting for the effects on gross primary productivity (GPP) of the co-correlates by means of a meta-modelling standardization procedure, which resulted in a reduction by a factor of about 2 of the uncorrected, apparent dGPP/dN$_{dep}$ value. This model-enhanced analysis of the C and N$_{dep}$ flux observations at the scale of the European network suggests a mean overall dNEP/dN$_{dep}$ response of forest lifetime C sequestration to N$_{dep}$ of the order of 40–50 g C per g N, which is slightly larger but not significantly different from the range of estimates published in the most recent reviews. Importantly, patterns of gross primary and net ecosystem productivity versus N$_{dep}$ were non-linear, with no further growth responses at high N$_{dep}$ levels (N$_{dep}$ >2.5–3 gNm$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$) but accompanied by increasingly large ecosystem N losses by leaching and gaseous emissions. The reduced increase in productivity per unit N deposited at high N$_{dep}$ levels implies that the forecast increased N$_{r}$ emissions and increased Ndep levels in large areas of Asia may not positively impact the continent’s forest CO$_{2}$ sink. The large level of unexplained variability in observed carbon sequestration efficiency (CSE) across sites further adds to the uncertainty in the dC/dN response

Disparities between plant community responses to nitrogen deposition and critical loads in UK semi-natural habitats

Empirical critical loads are widely used to quantify and manage the ecological impacts of reactive nitrogen (N) deposition. Critical load values aim to identify a level of N deposition below which significant harmful effects do not occur according to present knowledge. Critical loads have been primarily based on experiments, but these are few in number and have well-known limitations, so there is a strong imperative to test and validate values with other forms of evidence. We assembled data on the spatial variability in vegetation communities in the United Kingdom and used Threshold Indicator Taxa Analyses (TITAN) to investigate linkages between species changes and modelled current and cumulative N deposition. Our analyses focused on five datasets: acid grasslands, alpine habitats, coastal fixed dunes, dune slacks and wet grasslands. In four of these habitats there was evidence for a significant decline in the cover of at least one species (a ‘species-loss change-point’) occurring below the critical load, and often at very low levels of N deposition. In all of the habitats there was evidence for clustering of many individual species-loss change-points, implying a community change-point analogous to an ecological threshold. Three of these community change-points occurred below the critical load and the remaining two overlapped with the critical load range. Studies using similar approaches are now increasingly common, with similar results. Across 19 similar analyses there has been evidence for plant species loss change-points below the critical load in 18 analyses, and community-level species loss change-points below the critical load in 13 analyses. None of these analyses has shown community change-points above the critical load. Field data increasingly suggest that many European critical loads are too high to confidently prevent loss of sensitive species

How to make complexity look simple? Conveying ecosystems restoration complexity for socio-economic research and public engagement

Ecosystems degradation represents one of the major global challenges at the present time, threating people’s livelihoods and well-being worldwide. Ecosystem restoration therefore seems no longer an option, but an imperative. Restoration challenges are such that a dialogue has begun on the need to re-shape restoration as a science. A critical aspect of that reshaping process is the acceptance that restoration science and practice needs to be coupled with socio-economic research and public engagement. This inescapably means conveying complex ecosystem’s information in a way that is accessible to the wider public. In this paper we take up this challenge with the ultimate aim of contributing to making a step change in science’s contribution to ecosystems restoration practice. Using peatlands as a paradigmatically complex ecosystem, we put in place a transdisciplinary process to articulate a description of the processes and outcomes of restoration that can be understood widely by the public. We provide evidence of the usefulness of the process and tools in addressing four key challenges relevant to restoration of any complex ecosystem: (1) how to represent restoration outcomes; (2) how to establish a restoration reference; (3) how to cope with varying restoration time-lags and (4) how to define spatial units for restoration. This evidence includes the way the process resulted in the creation of materials that are now being used by restoration practitioners for communication with the public and in other research contexts. Our main contribution is of an epistemological nature: while ecosystem services-based approaches have enhanced the integration of academic disciplines and non-specialist knowledge, this has so far only followed one direction (from the biophysical underpinning to the description of ecosystem services and their appreciation by the public). We propose that it is the mix of approaches and epistemological directions (including from the public to the biophysical parameters) what will make a definitive contribution to restoration practice

Peatland Initiation, Carbon Accumulation, and 2 ka Depth in the James Bay Lowland and Adjacent Regions

Copyright © 2014 University of Colorado at Boulder, Institute of Arctic and Alpine ResearchPeatlands surrounding Hudson and James Bays form the second largest peatland complex in the world and contain major stores of soil carbon (C). This study utilized a transect of eight ombrotrophic peat cores from remote regions of central and northern Ontario to quantify the magnitude and rate of C accumulation since peatland initiation and for the past 2000 calendar years before present (2 ka). These new data were supplemented by 17 millennially resolved chronologies from a literature review covering the Boreal Shield, Hudson Plains, and Taiga Shield bordering Hudson and James Bays. Peatlands initiated in central and northern Ontario by 7.8 ka following deglaciation and isostatic emergence of northern areas to above sea level. Total C accumulated since inception averaged 109.7 ± (std. dev.) 36.2 kg C m–2. Approximately 40% of total soil C has accumulated since 2 ka at an average apparent rate of 20.2 ± 6.9 g C m–2 yr–1. The 2 ka depths correlate significantly and positively with modern gridded climate estimates for mean annual precipitation, mean annual air temperature, growing degree-days > 0 °C, and photosynthetically active radiation integrated over days > 0 °C. There are significantly shallower depths in permafrost peatlands. Vertical peat accumulation was likely constrained by temperature, growing season length, and photosynthetically active radiation over the last 2 ka in the Hudson Bay Lowlands and surrounding regions.US National Science Foundatio

Carbon-nitrogen interactions in European forests and semi-natural vegetation - Part 1: Fluxes and budgets of carbon, nitrogen and greenhouse gases from ecosystem monitoring and modelling

The impact of atmospheric reactive nitrogen (N$_{r}$) deposition on carbon (C) sequestration in soils and biomass of unfertilized, natural, semi-natural and forest ecosystems has been much debated. Many previous results of this dC/dN response were based on changes in carbon stocks from periodical soil and ecosystem inventories, associated with estimates of N$_{r}$ deposition obtained from large-scale chemical transport models. This study and a companion paper (Flechard et al., 2020) strive to reduce uncertainties of N effects on C sequestration by linking multi-annual gross and net ecosystem productivity estimates from 40 eddy covariance flux towers across Europe to local measurement-based estimates of dry and wet N$_{r}$ deposition from a dedicated collocated monitoring network. To identify possible ecological drivers and processes affecting the interplay between C and N$_{r}$ inputs and losses, these data were also combined with in situ flux measurements of NO, N$_{2}$O and CH$_{4}$ fluxes; soil NO$_{3}$̅ leaching sampling; and results of soil incubation experiments for N and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as surveys of available data from online databases and from the literature, together with forest ecosystem (BASFOR) modelling. Multi-year averages of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in forests ranged from -70 to 826 gCm$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$ at total wet+dry inorganic N$_{r}$ deposition rates (N$_{dep}$) of 0.3 to 4.3 gNm$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$ and from -4 to 361 g Cm$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$ at N$_{dep}$ rates of 0.1 to 3.1 gNm$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$ in short semi-natural vegetation (moorlands, wetlands and unfertilized extensively managed grasslands). The GHG budgets of the forests were strongly dominated by CO$_{2}$ exchange, while CH$_{4}$ and N$_{2}$O exchange comprised a larger proportion of the GHG balance in short semi-natural vegetation. Uncertainties in elemental budgets were much larger for nitrogen than carbon, especially at sites with elevated N$_{dep}$ where N$_{r}$ leaching losses were also very large, and compounded by the lack of reliable data on organic nitrogen and N$_{2}$ losses by denitrification. Nitrogen losses in the form of NO, N$_{2}$O and especially NO$_{3}$̅ were on average 27%(range 6 %–54 %) of N$_{dep}$ at sites with N$_{dep}$ 3 gNm$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$. Such large levels of N$_{r}$ loss likely indicate that different stages of N saturation occurred at a number of sites. The joint analysis of the C and N budgets provided further hints that N saturation could be detected in altered patterns of forest growth. Net ecosystem productivity increased with N$_{r}$ deposition up to 2–2.5 gNm$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$, with large scatter associated with a wide range in carbon sequestration efficiency (CSE, defined as the NEP = GPP ratio). At elevated N$_{dep}$ levels (> 2.5 gNm$^{-2}$ yr$^{-1}$), where inorganic N$_{r}$ losses were also increasingly large, NEP levelled off and then decreased. The apparent increase in NEP at low to intermediate N$_{dep}$ levels was partly the result of geographical cross-correlations between N$_{dep}$ and climate, indicating that the actual mean dC/dN response at individual sites was significantly lower than would be suggested by a simple, straightforward regression of NEP vs. N$_{dep}$

Testate amoeba response to acid deposition in a Scottish peatland

Peatlands around the world are exposed to anthropogenic or volcanogenic sulphur pollution. Impacts on peatland microbial communities have been inferred from changes in gas flux but have rarely been directly studied. In this study, the impacts of sulphuric acid deposition on peatland testate amoebae were investigated by analysis of experimental plots on a Scottish peatland almost 7 years after acid treatment. Results showed reduced concentration of live amoebae and changes in community structure which remained significant even when differences in pH were accounted for. Several possible explanations for the impacts can be proposed including taphonomic processes and changes in plant communities. Previous studies have inferred a shift from methanogenic archaea to sulphate-reducing bacteria in sulphate-treated peats; it is possible that the impacts detected here might relate to this change, perhaps through testate amoeba predation on methanotrophs

Diagnosis of Kawasaki Disease Using a Minimal Whole-Blood Gene Expression Signature.

Importance: To date, there is no diagnostic test for Kawasaki disease (KD). Diagnosis is based on clinical features shared with other febrile conditions, frequently resulting in delayed or missed treatment and an increased risk of coronary artery aneurysms. Objective: To identify a whole-blood gene expression signature that distinguishes children with KD in the first week of illness from other febrile conditions. Design, Setting, and Participants: The case-control study comprised a discovery group that included a training and test set and a validation group of children with KD or comparator febrile illness. The setting was pediatric centers in the United Kingdom, Spain, the Netherlands, and the United States. The training and test discovery group comprised 404 children with infectious and inflammatory conditions (78 KD, 84 other inflammatory diseases, and 242 bacterial or viral infections) and 55 healthy controls. The independent validation group comprised 102 patients with KD, including 72 in the first 7 days of illness, and 130 febrile controls. The study dates were March 1, 2009, to November 14, 2013, and data analysis took place from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Whole-blood gene expression was evaluated using microarrays, and minimal transcript sets distinguishing KD were identified using a novel variable selection method (parallel regularized regression model search). The ability of transcript signatures (implemented as disease risk scores) to discriminate KD cases from controls was assessed by area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity at the optimal cut point according to the Youden index. Results: Among 404 patients in the discovery set, there were 78 with KD (median age, 27 months; 55.1% male) and 326 febrile controls (median age, 37 months; 56.4% male). Among 202 patients in the validation set, there were 72 with KD (median age, 34 months; 62.5% male) and 130 febrile controls (median age, 17 months; 56.9% male). A 13-transcript signature identified in the discovery training set distinguished KD from other infectious and inflammatory conditions in the discovery test set, with AUC of 96.2% (95% CI, 92.5%-99.9%), sensitivity of 81.7% (95% CI, 60.0%-94.8%), and specificity of 92.1% (95% CI, 84.0%-97.0%). In the validation set, the signature distinguished KD from febrile controls, with AUC of 94.6% (95% CI, 91.3%-98.0%), sensitivity of 85.9% (95% CI, 76.8%-92.6%), and specificity of 89.1% (95% CI, 83.0%-93.7%). The signature was applied to clinically defined categories of definite, highly probable, and possible KD, resulting in AUCs of 98.1% (95% CI, 94.5%-100%), 96.3% (95% CI, 93.3%-99.4%), and 70.0% (95% CI, 53.4%-86.6%), respectively, mirroring certainty of clinical diagnosis. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, a 13-transcript blood gene expression signature distinguished KD from other febrile conditions. Diagnostic accuracy increased with certainty of clinical diagnosis. A test incorporating the 13-transcript disease risk score may enable earlier diagnosis and treatment of KD and reduce inappropriate treatment in those with other diagnoses

Sources, Composition, and Export of Particulate Organic Matter Across British Estuaries

Estuaries receive and process a large amount of particulate organic carbon (POC) prior to its export into coastal waters. Studying the origin of this POC is key to understanding the fate of POC and the role of estuaries in the global carbon cycle. Here, we evaluated the concentrations of POC, as well as particulate organic nitrogen (PON), and used stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes to assess their sources across 13 contrasting British estuaries during five different sampling campaigns over 1 year. We found a high variability in POC and PON concentrations across the salinity gradient, reflecting inputs, and losses of organic material within the estuaries. Catchment land cover appeared to influence the contribution of POC to the total organic carbon flux from the estuary to coastal waters, with POC contributions >36% in estuaries draining catchments with a high percentage of urban/suburban land, and <11% in estuaries draining catchments with a high peatland cover. There was no seasonal pattern in the isotopic composition of POC and PON, suggesting similar sources for each estuary over time. Carbon isotopic ratios were depleted (−26.7 ± 0.42‰, average ± sd) at the lowest salinity waters, indicating mainly terrigenous POC (TPOC). Applying a two-source mixing model, we observed high variability in the contribution of TPOC at the highest salinity waters between estuaries, with a median value of 57%. Our results indicate a large transport of terrigenous organic carbon into coastal waters, where it may be buried, remineralized, or transported offshore