Modelling spatial biodiversity in the world’s largest mangrove ecosystem-The Bangladesh Sundarbans: a baseline for conservation

Aim: Mangrove forests are among the most threatened and rapidly vanishing, but poorly understood ecosystems. We aim to uncover the variables driving mangrove biodiversity and produce baseline biodiversity maps for the Sundarbans world heritage site—the Earth's largest contiguous mangrove ecosystem. Location: The Bangladesh Sundarbans, South Asia. Methods: We collected species abundance, environmental and disturbance data from 110 permanent sample plots (PSPs) covering the entire Bangladesh Sundarbans (6,017 km2). We applied generalized additive models to determine the key variables shaping the spatial distributions of mangrove diversity and community composition. Biodiversity maps were constructed using covariate‐driven habitat models, and their predictive performances were compared with covariate‐free (i.e., direct interpolation) approaches to see whether the inclusion of habitat variables bolster spatial predictions of biodiversity or whether we can rely on direct interpolation approaches when environmental data are not available. Results: Historical forest exploitation, disease, siltation and soil alkalinity were the key stressors causing loss of alpha and gamma diversity in mangrove communities. Both alpha and gamma diversity increased along the downstream‐to‐upstream and riverbank‐to‐forest interior gradients. Mangrove communities subjected to intensive past tree harvesting, disease outbreaks and siltation were more homogeneous in species composition (beta diversity). In contrast, heterogeneity in species composition increased along decreasing salinity and downstream‐to‐upstream gradients. We find that the surviving biodiversity hotspots (comprising many globally endangered tree species) are located outside the established protected area network and hence open to human exploitation. We therefore suggest bringing them immediately under protected area management. Main Conclusions: We provide the first habitat‐based modelling and mapping of alpha, beta and gamma diversity in threatened mangrove communities. In general, habitat‐based models showed better predictive ability than the covariate‐free approach. Nevertheless, the small margin of differences between the approaches demonstrates the utility of direct interpolation approaches when environmental data are unavailable

Metabolic flexibility as a major predictor of spatial distribution in microbial communities

A better understand the ecology of microbes and their role in the global ecosystem could be achieved if traditional ecological theories can be applied to microbes. In ecology organisms are defined as specialists or generalists according to the breadth of their niche. Spatial distribution is often used as a proxy measure of niche breadth; generalists have broad niches and a wide spatial distribution and specialists a narrow niche and spatial distribution. Previous studies suggest that microbial distribution patterns are contrary to this idea; a microbial generalist genus (Desulfobulbus) has a limited spatial distribution while a specialist genus (Methanosaeta) has a cosmopolitan distribution. Therefore, we hypothesise that this counter-intuitive distribution within generalist and specialist microbial genera is a common microbial characteristic. Using molecular fingerprinting the distribution of four microbial genera, two generalists, Desulfobulbus and the methanogenic archaea Methanosarcina, and two specialists, Methanosaeta and the sulfate-reducing bacteria Desulfobacter were analysed in sediment samples from along a UK estuary. Detected genotypes of both generalist genera showed a distinct spatial distribution, significantly correlated with geographic distance between sites. Genotypes of both specialist genera showed no significant differential spatial distribution. These data support the hypothesis that the spatial distribution of specialist and generalist microbes does not match that seen with specialist and generalist large organisms. It may be that generalist microbes, while having a wider potential niche, are constrained, possibly by intrageneric competition, to exploit only a small part of that potential niche while specialists, with far fewer constraints to their niche, are more capable of filling their potential niche more effectively, perhaps by avoiding intrageneric competition. We suggest that these counter-intuitive distribution patterns may be a common feature of microbes in general and represent a distinct microbial principle in ecology, which is a real challenge if we are to develop a truly inclusive ecology

Relating Habitat and Climatic Niches in Birds

Predicting species' responses to the combined effects of habitat and climate changes has become a major challenge in ecology and conservation biology. However, the effects of climatic and habitat gradients on species distributions have generally been considered separately. Here, we explore the relationships between the habitat and thermal dimensions of the ecological niche in European common birds. Using data from the French Breeding Bird Survey, a large-scale bird monitoring program, we correlated the habitat and thermal positions and breadths of 74 bird species, controlling for life history traits and phylogeny. We found that cold climate species tend to have niche positions in closed habitats, as expected by the conjunction of the biogeographic history of birds' habitats, and their current continent-scale gradients. We also report a positive correlation between thermal and habitat niche breadths, a pattern consistent with macroecological predictions concerning the processes shaping species' distributions. Our results suggest that the relationships between the climatic and habitat components of the niche have to be taken into account to understand and predict changes in species' distributions

Habitat filtering determines spatial variation of macroinvertebrate community traits in northern headwater streams

Although our knowledge of the spatial distribution of stream organisms has been increasing rapidly in the last decades, there is still little consensus about trait-based variability of macroinvertebrate communities within and between catchments in near-pristine systems. Our aim was to examine the taxonomic and trait based stability vs. variability of stream macroinvertebrates in three high-latitude catchments in Finland. The collected taxa were assigned to unique trait combinations (UTCs) using biological traits. We found that only a single or a highly limited number of taxa formed a single UTC, suggesting a low degree of redundancy. Our analyses revealed significant differences in the environmental conditions of the streams among the three catchments. Linear models, rarefaction curves and beta-diversity measures showed that the catchments differed in both alpha and beta diversity. Taxon- and trait-based multivariate analyses also indicated that the three catchments were significantly different in terms of macroinvertebrate communities. All these findings suggest that habitat filtering, i.e., environmental differences among catchments, determines the variability of macroinvertebrate communities, thereby contributing to the significant biological differences among the catchments. The main implications of our study is that the sensitivity of trait-based analyses to natural environmental variation should be carefully incorporated in the assessment of environmental degradation, and that further studies are needed for a deeper understanding of trait-based community patterns across near-pristine streams

Why and how might genetic and phylogenetic diversity be reflected in the identification of key biodiversity areas?

‘Key biodiversity areas' are defined as sites contributing significantly to the global persistence of biodiversity. The identification of these sites builds from existing approaches based on measures of species and ecosystem diversity and process. Here, we therefore build from the work of Sgró et al. (2011 Evol. Appl. 4, 326–337. (doi:10.1111/j.1752-4571.2010.00157.x)) to extend a framework for how components of genetic diversity might be considered in the identification of key biodiversity areas. We make three recommendations to inform the ongoing process of consolidating a key biodiversity areas standard: (i) thresholds for the threatened species criterion currently consider a site's share of a threatened species' population; expand these to include the proportion of the species' genetic diversity unique to a site; (ii) expand criterion for ‘threatened species' to consider ‘threatened taxa’ and (iii) expand the centre of endemism criterion to identify as key biodiversity areas those sites holding a threshold proportion of the compositional or phylogenetic diversity of species (within a taxonomic group) whose restricted ranges collectively define a centre of endemism. We also recommend consideration of occurrence of EDGE species (i.e. threatened phylogenetic diversity) in key biodiversity areas to prioritize species-specific conservation actions among sites

Functional Structure of Biological Communities Predicts Ecosystem Multifunctionality

The accelerating rate of change in biodiversity patterns, mediated by ever increasing human pressures and global warming, demands a better understanding of the relationship between the structure of biological communities and ecosystem functioning (BEF). Recent investigations suggest that the functional structure of communities, i.e. the composition and diversity of functional traits, is the main driver of ecological processes. However, the predictive power of BEF research is still low, the integration of all components of functional community structure as predictors is still lacking, and the multifunctionality of ecosystems (i.e. rates of multiple processes) must be considered. Here, using a multiple-processes framework from grassland biodiversity experiments, we show that functional identity of species and functional divergence among species, rather than species diversity per se, together promote the level of ecosystem multifunctionality with a predictive power of 80%. Our results suggest that primary productivity and decomposition rates, two key ecosystem processes upon which the global carbon cycle depends, are primarily sustained by specialist species, i.e. those that hold specialized combinations of traits and perform particular functions. Contrary to studies focusing on single ecosystem functions and considering species richness as the sole measure of biodiversity, we found a linear and non-saturating effect of the functional structure of communities on ecosystem multifunctionality. Thus, sustaining multiple ecological processes would require focusing on trait dominance and on the degree of community specialization, even in species-rich assemblages

The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas

Climate change is already affecting species and their distributions. Distributional range changes have occurred and are projected to intensify for many widespread plants and animals, creating associated risks to many ecosystems. Here, we estimate the climate change-related risks to the species in globally significant biodiversity conservation areas over a range of climate scenarios, assessing their value as climate refugia. In particular, we quantify the aggregated benefit of countries’ emission reduction pledges (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement), and also of further constraining global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, against an unmitigated scenario of 4.5 °C warming. We also quantify the contribution that can be made by using smart spatial conservation planning to facilitate some levels of autonomous (i.e. natural) adaptation to climate change by dispersal. We find that without mitigation, on average 33% of each conservation area can act as climate refugium (or 18% if species are unable to disperse), whereas if warming is constrained to 2 °C, the average area of climate refuges doubles to 67% of each conservation area (or, without dispersal, more than doubles to 56% of each area). If the country pledges are fulfilled, an intermediate estimate of 47–52% (or 31–38%, without dispersal) is obtained. We conclude that the Nationally Determined Contributions alone have important but limited benefits for biodiversity conservation, with larger benefits accruing if warming is constrained to 2 °C. Greater benefits would result if warming was constrained to well below 2 °C as set out in the Paris Agreement

Identifying future research directions for biodiversity, ecosystem services and sustainability: perspectives from early-career researchers

We aimed to identify priority research questions in the field of biodiversity, ecosystem services and sustainability (BESS), based on a workshop held during the NRG BESS Conference for Early Career Researchers on BESS, and to compare these to existing horizon scanning exercises. This work highlights the need for improved data availability through collaboration and knowledge exchange, which, in turn, can support the integrated valuation and sustainable management of ecosystems in response to global change. In addition, clear connectivity among different research themes in this field further emphasizes the need to consider a wider range of topics simultaneously to ensure the sustainable management of ecosystems for human wellbeing. In contrast to other horizon scanning exercises, our focus was more interdisciplinary and more concerned with the limits of sustainability and dynamic relationships between social and ecological systems. The identified questions could provide a framework for researchers, policy makers, funding agencies and the private sector to advance knowledge in biodiversity and ES research and to develop and implement policies to enable sustainable future development

The conservation value of human-modified landscapes for the world's primates

Land-use change pushes biodiversity into human-modified landscapes, where native ecosystems are surrounded by anthropic land covers (ALCs). Yet, the ability of species to use these emerging covers remains poorly understood. We quantified the use of ALCs by primates worldwide, and analyzed species' attributes that predict such use. Most species use secondary forests and tree plantations, while only few use human settlements. ALCs are used for foraging by at least 86 species with an important conservation outcome: those that tolerate heavily modified ALCs are 26% more likely to have stable or increasing populations than the global average for all primates. There is no phylogenetic signal in ALCs use. Compared to all primates on Earth, species using ALCs are less often threatened with extinction, but more often diurnal, medium or large-bodied, not strictly arboreal, and habitat generalists. These findings provide valuable quantitative information for improving management practices for primate conservation worldwide