Hotspots: Modelling capacity for vector-borne disease risk analysis in New Zealand: A case study of Ochlerotatus camptorhynchus incursions in New Zealand

This Hotspots case study of Oc. camptorhynchus in New Zealand forms part of the wider aims and objectives of the Hotspots project. The overall aims of the case study were: 1. To evaluate the performance of the Hotspots model as a risk analysis tool for Oc. camptorhynchus; 2. To use and learn from the experience of the various incursions of Oc. camptorhynchus in order to critically assess and improve the model; 3. To gain experience in using the model for risk analysis for Oc. camptorhynchus in particular, and in so doing, also develop experience applicable to risk analysis for other vectors of concern (Table 1); and, 4. To develop an experience and knowledge base as well as guidelines for future use of the model in its various applications related to biosecurity, surveillance and risk assessment and management

Hotspots: Exotic mosquito risk profiles for New Zealand

This document reports the main findings of the first systematic, spatial analyses of risks to New Zealand associated with exotic mosquitoes of current public health concern

People Efficiently Explore the Solution Space of the Computationally Intractable Traveling Salesman Problem to Find Near-Optimal Tours

Humans need to solve computationally intractable problems such as visual search, categorization, and simultaneous learning and acting, yet an increasing body of evidence suggests that their solutions to instantiations of these problems are near optimal. Computational complexity advances an explanation to this apparent paradox: (1) only a small portion of instances of such problems are actually hard, and (2) successful heuristics exploit structural properties of the typical instance to selectively improve parts that are likely to be sub-optimal. We hypothesize that these two ideas largely account for the good performance of humans on computationally hard problems. We tested part of this hypothesis by studying the solutions of 28 participants to 28 instances of the Euclidean Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP). Participants were provided feedback on the cost of their solutions and were allowed unlimited solution attempts (trials). We found a significant improvement between the first and last trials and that solutions are significantly different from random tours that follow the convex hull and do not have self-crossings. More importantly, we found that participants modified their current better solutions in such a way that edges belonging to the optimal solution (“good” edges) were significantly more likely to stay than other edges (“bad” edges), a hallmark of structural exploitation. We found, however, that more trials harmed the participants' ability to tell good from bad edges, suggesting that after too many trials the participants “ran out of ideas.” In sum, we provide the first demonstration of significant performance improvement on the TSP under repetition and feedback and evidence that human problem-solving may exploit the structure of hard problems paralleling behavior of state-of-the-art heuristics

Focal adhesion is associated with lithium response in bipolar disorder: evidence from a network-based multi-omics analysis

Lithium (Li) is one of the most effective drugs for treating bipolar disorder (BD), however, there is presently no way to predict response to guide treatment. The aim of this study is to identify functional genes and pathways that distinguish BD Li responders (LR) from BD Li non-responders (NR). An initial Pharmacogenomics of Bipolar Disorder study (PGBD) GWAS of lithium response did not provide any significant results. As a result, we then employed network-based integrative analysis of transcriptomic and genomic data. In transcriptomic study of iPSC-derived neurons, 41 significantly differentially expressed (DE) genes were identified in LR vs NR regardless of lithium exposure. In the PGBD, post-GWAS gene prioritization using the GWA-boosting (GWAB) approach identified 1119 candidate genes. Following DE-derived network propagation, there was a highly significant overlap of genes between the top 500- and top 2000-proximal gene networks and the GWAB gene list (Phypergeometric = 1.28E–09 and 4.10E–18, respectively). Functional enrichment analyses of the top 500 proximal network genes identified focal adhesion and the extracellular matrix (ECM) as the most significant functions. Our findings suggest that the difference between LR and NR was a much greater effect than that of lithium. The direct impact of dysregulation of focal adhesion on axon guidance and neuronal circuits could underpin mechanisms of response to lithium, as well as underlying BD. It also highlights the power of integrative multi-omics analysis of transcriptomic and genomic profiling to gain molecular insights into lithium response in BD.publishedVersio

Characterisation of age and polarity at onset in bipolar disorder

Background Studying phenotypic and genetic characteristics of age at onset (AAO) and polarity at onset (PAO) in bipolar disorder can provide new insights into disease pathology and facilitate the development of screening tools. Aims To examine the genetic architecture of AAO and PAO and their association with bipolar disorder disease characteristics. Method Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and polygenic score (PGS) analyses of AAO (n = 12 977) and PAO (n = 6773) were conducted in patients with bipolar disorder from 34 cohorts and a replication sample (n = 2237). The association of onset with disease characteristics was investigated in two of these cohorts. Results Earlier AAO was associated with a higher probability of psychotic symptoms, suicidality, lower educational attainment, not living together and fewer episodes. Depressive onset correlated with suicidality and manic onset correlated with delusions and manic episodes. Systematic differences in AAO between cohorts and continents of origin were observed. This was also reflected in single-nucleotide variant-based heritability estimates, with higher heritabilities for stricter onset definitions. Increased PGS for autism spectrum disorder (β = −0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), major depression (β = −0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), schizophrenia (β = −0.39 years, s.e. = 0.08), and educational attainment (β = −0.31 years, s.e. = 0.08) were associated with an earlier AAO. The AAO GWAS identified one significant locus, but this finding did not replicate. Neither GWAS nor PGS analyses yielded significant associations with PAO. Conclusions AAO and PAO are associated with indicators of bipolar disorder severity. Individuals with an earlier onset show an increased polygenic liability for a broad spectrum of psychiatric traits. Systematic differences in AAO across cohorts, continents and phenotype definitions introduce significant heterogeneity, affecting analyses

Genomics yields biological and phenotypic insights into bipolar disorder

Bipolar disorder is a leading contributor to the global burden of disease(1). Despite high heritability (60-80%), the majority of the underlying genetic determinants remain unknown(2). We analysed data from participants of European, East Asian, African American and Latino ancestries (n=158,036 cases with bipolar disorder, 2.8 million controls), combining clinical, community and self-reported samples. We identified 298 genome-wide significant loci in the multi-ancestry meta-analysis, a fourfold increase over previous findings(3), and identified an ancestry-specific association in the East Asian cohort. Integrating results from fine-mapping and other variant-to-gene mapping approaches identified 36 credible genes in the aetiology of bipolar disorder. Genes prioritized through fine-mapping were enriched for ultra-rare damaging missense and protein-truncating variations in cases with bipolar disorder(4), highlighting convergence of common and rare variant signals. We report differences in the genetic architecture of bipolar disorder depending on the source of patient ascertainment and on bipolar disorder subtype (type I or type II). Several analyses implicate specific cell types in the pathophysiology of bipolar disorder, including GABAergic interneurons and medium spiny neurons. Together, these analyses provide additional insights into the genetic architecture and biological underpinnings of bipolar disorder