GPS-determination of along-strike variation in Cascadia margin kinematics: Implications for relative plate motion, Subduction zone coupling, and permanent deformation

High‐precision GPS geodesy in the Pacific Northwest provides the first synoptic view of the along‐strike variation in Cascadia margin kinematics. These results constrain interfering deformation fields in a region where typical earthquake recurrence intervals are one or more orders of magnitude longer than the decades‐long history of seismic monitoring and where geologic studies are sparse. Interseismic strain accumulation contributes greatly to GPS station velocities along the coast. After correction for a simple elastic dislocation model, important residual motions remain, especially south of the international border. The magnitude of northward forearc motion increases southward from western Washington (3–7 mm/yr) to northern and central Oregon (∼9 mm/yr), consistent with oblique convergence and geologic constraints on permanent deformation. The margin‐parallel strain gradient, concentrated in western Washington across the populated Puget Lowlands, compares in magnitude to shortening across the Los Angeles Basin. Thus crustal faulting also contributes to seismic hazard. Farther south in southern Oregon, north‐westward velocities reflect the influence of Pacific‐North America motion and impingement of the Sierra Nevada block on the Pacific Northwest. In contrast to previous notions, some deformation related to the Eastern California shear zone crosses northernmost California in the vicinity of the Klamath Mountains and feeds out to the Gorda plate margin

Détection et estimation de détarages dans les modèles hauteur-débit pour la quantification du débit des cours d’eau en rétrospectif et en temps réel

River discharge time series are established using "rating curves", which are models with stage as input and discharge as output. Unfortunately, many hydrometric stations have an unstable stage-discharge relation, particularly because of the change in the river bed during floods. These "rating shifts" pose a problem both for the establishment of long-term hydrological series (retrospective analysis) and for the delivery of real-time data, for example for flood forecasting, with quantified and reliable uncertainties. The existing methods for updating the rating curve are based on a statistical analysis of past calibration data (the gaugings) or on empirical rules. This thesis aims at developing some original methods for the automatic detection of rating shifts and the estimation of their magnitude in both retrospective and real time: a method of segmentation of the residuals between the gaugings and a base rating curve, an analysis of the stage recessions and a method for detecting potential shifts from an indicator available in real time (e.g. cumulative sediment transport). The probabilistic approach allows on the one hand to take into account the uncertainty of the information on the shift and on the other hand to quantify the uncertainties of the calculated streamflow. The combination of the three methods has been applied to the Ardèche at Meyras, France, which shows net shifts after each major flood. Good detection and estimation of the rating shift has been observed retrospectively and in real time. The method is generic and, after further validation, operationally applicable to other sites.Les séries temporelles de débit des rivières sont établies à l'aide de "courbes de tarage", qui sont des modèles avec les hauteurs d’eau en entrée et les débits en sortie. Malheureusement, de nombreuses stations hydrométriques ont une relation hauteur-débit instable, notamment à cause de l’évolution du lit de la rivière lors des crues. Ces "détarages" posent problème à la fois pour l'établissement des séries hydrologiques de long-terme (analyse rétrospective) et pour la fourniture de données en temps réel, par exemple pour la prévision des inondations, avec des incertitudes quantifiées et fiables. Les méthodes existantes pour la mise à jour de la courbe de tarage sont basées sur une analyse statistique des données de calibration (jaugeages) passées ou sur des règles empiriques. Cette thèse a permis de développer des méthodes originales pour la détection automatique des détarages et l'estimation de leur amplitude en rétrospectif et en temps réel : une méthode de segmentation des résidus entre les jaugeages et une courbe de référence, une analyse des récessions du limnigramme et une détection de détarages potentiels à partir d'un indicateur disponible en temps réel (par exemple, transport sédimentaire cumulé). L'approche probabiliste permet d'une part de prendre en compte l'incertitude des informations sur les détarages et d'autre part de quantifier les incertitudes sur les débits calculés. La combinaison des trois méthodes a été appliquée à la station de l’Ardèche à Meyras, en France, qui présente des détarages nets après chaque crue importante. Une bonne détection et estimation des détarages a été observée en rétrospectif et en temps réel. La méthode est générale et applicable en opérationnel à d’autres stations après validation. La méthode est générique et, après davantage de validation, applicable en opérationnel à d'autres sites

Late Holocene Paleoseismicity along the Northern Oregon Coast

Marsh paleoseismological studies were conducted in four bays (Necanicum, Nestucca, Siletz, and Yaquina) along the northern Oregon coast and compared with completed studies in two other bays (Netarts and Alsea). Coseismically buried peats were identified in all bays, based on 1) abrupt contacts, decreases in organic content, increases in sand content, increases in beach sand, and changes in diatom assemblages, all from the peat to the overlying sediments, 2) distinct sandy layers and key plant macrofossils, such as Triglochin, above the buried peat, and 3) widespread correlation of the buried peats within the bay. The stratigraphy and the ages and depths of the top six coseismically buried peats were compared between bays. The following similarities were noted: 1) All bays recorded five burial events in the top 2.6 meters within the last 2200 years. 2) Six burial events were recorded in six bays in the top 3.0 meters, except Alsea Bay (3.3 m), and all six events occurred within the last 2600 years except Yaquina (2780 years). 3) The depth to the top of each buried peat in the bays is consistent, falling within discrete ranges, except for the top two events at Yaquina. 4) Distinct sandy layers (tsunami-deposited) are present over the topmost buried peat in all bays except Yaquina and over the 4th in all bays except Yaquina and Nestucca. 5) Distinct tsunami-deposited sandy layers are absent over the third buried peat in Netarts, Nestucca, Siletz, Alsea, and possibly Yaquina, but present at Necanicum. The evidence strongly suggests synchroneity of coseismic events between the Necanicum River and Alsea Bay (a distance of 175 km), with the exception of the 2nd and 6th event. The 6th coseismic event would be synchronous between Alsea and Netarts, a distance of 105 km. The support for synchroneity of the 2nd event is weak. Synchroneity of coseismic burial events on the northern Oregon coast would argue for paleomagnitudes of at least 8.1 Mw, given a minimum rupture width of 50 km and a rupture length of 105 km. The paleomagnitudes were determined using the moment magnitude equation, Mw = 2/3 IOg10 Mo - 10.7 where Mo = shear modulus x rupture area x seismic slip. The seismic slip is estimated from a minimum recurrence interval of 300 years and a minimum convergence rate of 3.5 cm/yr.Marsh paleoseismological studies were conducted in four bays (Necanicum, Nestucca, Siletz, and Yaquina) along the northern Oregon coast and compared with completed studies in two other bays (Netarts and Alsea). Coseismically buried peats were identified in all bays, based on 1) abrupt contacts, decreases in organic content, increases in sand content, increases in beach sand, and changes in diatom assemblages, all from the peat to the overlying sediments, 2) distinct sandy layers and key plant macrofossils, such as Triglochin, above the buried peat, and 3) widespread correlation of the buried peats within the bay. The stratigraphy and the ages and depths of the top six coseismically buried peats were compared between bays. The following similarities were noted: 1) All bays recorded five burial events in the top 2.6 meters within the last 2200 years. 2) Six burial events were recorded in six bays in the top 3.0 meters, except Alsea Bay (3.3 m), and all six events occurred within the last 2600 years except Yaquina (2780 years). 3) The depth to the top of each buried peat in the bays is consistent, falling within discrete ranges, except for the top two events at Yaquina. 4) Distinct sandy layers (tsunami-deposited) are present over the topmost buried peat in all bays except Yaquina and over the 4th in all bays except Yaquina and Nestucca. 5) Distinct tsunami-deposited sandy layers are absent over the third buried peat in Netarts, Nestucca, Siletz, Alsea, and possibly Yaquina, but present at Necanicum. The evidence strongly suggests synchroneity of coseismic events between the Necanicum River and Alsea Bay (a distance of 175 km), with the exception of the 2nd and 6th event. The 6th coseismic event would be synchronous between Alsea and Netarts, a distance of 105 km. The support for synchroneity of the 2nd event is weak. Synchroneity of coseismic burial events on the northern Oregon coast would argue for paleomagnitudes of at least 8.1 Mw, given a minimum rupture width of 50 km and a rupture length of 105 km. The paleomagnitudes were determined using the moment magnitude equation, Mw = 2/3 IOg10 Mo - 10.7 where Mo = shear modulus x rupture area x seismic slip. The seismic slip is estimated from a minimum recurrence interval of 300 years and a minimum convergence rate of 3.5 cm/yr

The impact of visualization on te performance of SOA-based applications and its influence on the performance models

Esta tese de doutorado analisa o impacto gerado pela virtualização assistida por hardware, de terceira geração, no desempenho de aplicações baseadas em SOA do tipo CPU-bound e memory-intensive, bem como nas operações de marshalling e unmarshalling de mensagens SOAP executadas nas bibliotecas dos servidores de aplicação. A partir dessa análise, concluiu-se que os recursos disponibilizados pela plataforma de hardware, principalmente no gerenciamento de memória, eliminam a sobrecarga gerada pela virtualização baseada em tradução binária, elevando os hypervisores bare-metal a um novo patamar, onde aplicações executadas sobre tais virtualizadores obtém, frequentemente, desempenho superior àquelas executadas em plataformas não virtualizadas. Assim, modificações nos modelos de desempenho de aplicações baseadas em SOA atualmente em uso são propostas, de acordo com a análise desenvolvida, para que reflitam os resultados obtidos de forma realistaThis PhD thesis analyzes the impact caused by third generation hardware-assisted virtualization on the performance of CPU-bound and memory-intensive SOA-based applications, as well as the impact caused on the marshaling and unmarshalling operations of the SOAP messages executed on the libraries of the application servers. From this analysis is concluded that the resources provided by the hardware platform, mainly considering the memory management, eliminate the overload generated by virtualization based on binary translation, raising the bare-metal hypervisors to a new level, where applications running on these hypervisors reach better performance when compared to those applications running on platforms not virtualized. Thus, modifications on the performance models for SOAbased applications currently in use are proposed accordingly to the analysis developed, aiming at reflecting the results obtained in a realistic fashio

Memory-intensive scheduling policies for distributed applications

Esta dissertação aborda o escalonamento de processos em sistemas de clusters de computadores, tanto em plataformas homogêneas quanto heterogêneas. As heterogeneidades abordadas incluem a potência computacional dos processadores, quantidade de memória principal do sistema e o tempo médio de acesso ao disco. Neste trabalho são propostas quatro novas políticas destinadas a realizar o compartilhamento de carga nesses ambientes, considerando cargas de trabalho com aplicações variando entre CPU-bound e memoryintensive. Dentre as quatro políticas, uma utiliza apenas índices de CPU, enquanto as demais utilizam também índices de memória. Os resultados foram obtidos através de simulações baseadas em trace e mostram reduções significativas das perdas de desempenho observadas nos resultados obtidos com as políticas de escalonamento propostas. Como referências foram utilizadas políticas de escalonamento tradicionais encontradas na literaturaThis dissertation approaches the process scheduling on clusters of computers, on both homogeneous and heterogeneous platforms. The heterogeneities considered include processor computational power, system main memory quantity and the average disk access time. In this work are proposed four novel policies aimed at realizing the work load sharing on these environments, considering workloads with applications varying between CPU-bound and memory-intensive. Among the four policies, one of them uses only CPU indices, while the others also use memory indices. The results were obtained by means of trace-based simulations and show a significant reduction on the performance losses observed on the results obtained with the proposed scheduling policies. As references were used traditional scheduling policies found in the literatur

Le province nel sociale: tra nuovi ruoli e differenti gestioni dei Fondi

Il capitolo scritto con la collega D’Arienzo è collegato al capitolo Le politiche sociali regionali finanziate dall’Unione europea, contenuto nello stesso testo. Il contributo qui proposto descrive le forme di cooperazione avviate nelle province ricadenti nelle cinque regioni campione: Basilicata, Campania, Lazio, Toscana, Umbria. Ai fini dell’indagine sono stati intervistati tutti gli assessori provinciali alle politiche sociali e i direttori, ove esistessero, degli osservatori relativi allo stesso settore. Dal lavoro è emerso che vengono attivate due forme principali di cooperazione: la cooperazione istituzionale e la cooperazione con il Terzo settore. I dati specifici confermano il dato più generali: i fondi comunitari incrementano una cooperazione orizzontale e verticale, già avviata con la legge 328/00