Recent Replacement of Native Pili Grass (Heteropogon contortus) by Invasive African Grasses in the Hawaiian Islands

We surveyed 41 sites from throughout O'ahu that had been dominated by native pili grass (Heteropogon contortus) in the late 1960s. Pili grass was absent from 14 (35%) of those sites in 1997 and had declined in abundance in most of the 27 remaining sites, relative to the late 1960s. The pili grass communities have been replaced by communities dominated by one of three African grasses: Cenchrus ciliaris (buffel grass), Pennisetum setaceum (fountain grass), or Panicum maximum (Guinea grass). Panicum maximum was often associated with the shrub Leucaena leucocephala, and Cenchrus ciliaris and Pennisetum setaceum communities showed little evidence of succession toward woody vegetation. Communities dominated by the African grasses were significantly less diverse, in terms of number of plant species, than the native pili grass-dominated communities. Observations made on other Hawaiian islands suggest that this rapid pili grass decline and replacement with alien grasses has not been limited to O'ahu. Research is needed to determine how higher-diversity native pili grass communities can be maintained in the Hawaiian Islands as a valuable natural and cultural resource

March of the Green Iguana : Non-native Distribution and Predicted Geographic Range of Iguana iguana in the Greater Caribbean Region

Green Iguanas (Iguana iguana L. 1758) have been introduced outside their native range largely through the pet trade. In many places, exotic populations have invaded and many have become established. Of special concern is the Greater Caribbean Basin, where several exotic populations of Green Iguanas have had a negative impact, and may threaten the conservation of several native species, including possible native and distinct forms of I. iguana in the Lesser Antilles, and the endangered Lesser Antilles Iguana (I. delicatissima Laurenti 1768). We assessed the risk of spread and invasion by Green Iguanas in the Greater Caribbean Basin using the maximum entropy niche-modeling algorithm (MaxEnt) to predict the potential distribution of this reptile. We used a total of 187 location points that represented occurrences from both the native and the invasive range, coupled with environmental data as predictor variables. Our model had average training and test AUC values of 0.90 and 0.87 respectively, indicating a high predictive ability. The model predicts suitable conditions for I. iguana in south and central Florida (mainly along the coast), and in regions of all the islands in the Caribbean. Given the known negative impact of Green Iguanas and their dispersal capabilities, governments in the Greater Caribbean Basin should manage non-native populations to prevent further spread, and revise and enact laws that allow management agencies to respond quickly in the case of new Green Iguana incursions

Unifying niche shift studies: insights from biological invasions.

Assessing whether the climatic niche of a species may change between different geographic areas or time periods has become increasingly important in the context of ongoing global change. However, approaches and findings have remained largely controversial so far, calling for a unification of methods. Here, we build on a review of empirical studies of invasion to formalize a unifying framework that decomposes niche change into unfilling, stability, and expansion situations, taking both a pooled range and range-specific perspective on the niche, while accounting for climatic availability and climatic analogy. This framework provides new insights into the nature of climate niche shifts and our ability to anticipate invasions, and may help in guiding the design of experiments for assessing causes of niche changes

Selecting predictors to maximize the transferability of species distribution models: lessons from cross-continental plant invasions

Aim: Niche-based models of species distribution (SDMs) are commonly used to predict impacts of global change on biodiversity but the reliability of these predictions in space and time depends on their transferability. We tested how the strategy to choose predictors impacts the SDMs' transferability at a cross-continental scale. Location: North America, Eurasia and Australia Method: We used a systematic approach including 50 Holarctic plant invaders and 27 initial predictor variables, considering 10 different strategies to variable selection, accounting for predictors' proximality, multicollinearity and climate analogy. We compared the average performance per strategy, some of them using a large number of random predictor combinations. Next, we looked for the single best model for each species across all possible predictor combinations, by pooling models across all strategies. Transferability was considered as the predictive success of SDMs calibrated in native range and projected onto the invaded range. Results: Two strategies showed better SDMs' transferability on average: a set of predictors known for their ecologically-meaningful effects on plant distribution, and the two first axes of a principal component analysis calibrated on all predictor variables (Spc2). From the >2000 combinations of predictors per species across strategies, the best set of predictors yielded SDMs with good transferability for 45 species (90%). These best combinations consisted in a random selection of 8 predictors (45 sp) and in Spc2 (5 sp). We also found that internal cross-validation was not sufficient to fully inform about SDMs' transferability to a distinct range. Main conclusion: Transferring SDMs at the macroclimatic scale, and thus anticipating invasions, is possible for the large majority of invasive plants considered in this study, but the predictions' accuracy relies strongly on the choice of predictors. From our results, we recommend including either the state-of-the-art proximal variables or a reduced and orthogonalised set to obtain robust SDMs' projections

Assessing Biofuel Crop Invasiveness: A Case Study

BACKGROUND: There is widespread interest in biofuel crops as a solution to the world's energy needs, particularly in light of concerns over greenhouse-gas emissions. Despite reservations about their adverse environmental impacts, no attempt has been made to quantify actual, relative or potential invasiveness of terrestrial biofuel crops at an appropriate regional or international scale, and their planting continues to be largely unregulated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using a widely accepted weed risk assessment system, we analyzed a comprehensive list of regionally suitable biofuel crops to show that seventy percent have a high risk of becoming invasive versus one-quarter of non-biofuel plant species and are two to four times more likely to establish wild populations locally or be invasive in Hawaii or in other locations with a similar climate. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Because of climatic and ecological similarities, predictions of biofuel crop invasiveness in Hawaii are applicable to other vulnerable island and subtropical ecosystems worldwide. We demonstrate the utility of an accessible and scientifically proven risk assessment protocol that allows users to predict if introduced species will become invasive in their region of interest. Other evidence supports the contention that propagule pressure created by extensive plantings will exacerbate invasions, a scenario expected with large-scale biofuel crop cultivation. Proactive measures, such as risk assessments, should be employed to predict invasion risks, which could then be mitigated via implementation of appropriate planting policies and adoption of the "polluter-pays" principle

Short Lag Times for Invasive Tropical Plants: Evidence from Experimental Plantings in Hawai'i

Background: The lag time of an invasion is the delay between arrival of an introduced species and its successful spread in a new area. To date, most estimates of lag times for plants have been indirect or anecdotal, and these estimates suggest that plant invasions are often characterized by lag times of 50 years or more. No general estimates are available of lag times for tropical plant invasions. Historical plantings and documentation were used to directly estimate lag times for tropical plant invasions in Hawai’i. Methodology/Principal Findings: Historical planting records for the Lyon Arboretum dating back to 1920 were examined to identify plants that have since become invasive pests in the Hawaiian Islands. Annual reports describing escape from plantings were then used to determine the lag times between initial plantings and earliest recorded spread of the successful invaders. Among 23 species that eventually became invasive pests, the average lag time between introduction and first evidence of spread was 14 years for woody plants and 5 years for herbaceous plants. Conclusions/Significance: These direct estimates of lag times are as much as an order of magnitude shorter than previous, indirect estimates, which were mainly based on temperate plants. Tropical invaders may have much shorter lag times than temperate species. A lack of direct and deliberate observations may have also inflated many previous lag time estimates. Although there have been documented cases of long lag times due to delayed arrival of a mutualist or environmenta

Indigenous Grasses for Rehabilitating Degraded African Drylands

Drylands provide an important livelihood stream to its inhabitants across the globe through a range of products and ecosystem services. However, these fragile ecosystems are threatened and believed to experience various degrees of land degradation. Estimates of the landmass affected by land degradation in the global drylands range from 10% to 20%, a percentage that is increasing at an annual global rate of 12 million ha of soil lost from desertification and drought. African drylands are especially highly susceptible to severe degradation because of their poor soil structure aggravated by scarce vegetation cover. Causes of degradation in these environments are both natural and anthropogenic in nature. Change in vegetation cover, decline in soil fertility, biodiversity loss and soil erosion demonstrate degradation in African drylands. Grass reseeding using indigenous species is one of the promising sustainable land management strategies to combat degradation in the drylands. Reseeding programmes are aimed at improving vegetation cover and biomass, and they conserve the soil to an extent not possible by grazing and land management alone. Indigenous drought-tolerant grasses notably African foxtail grass (Cenchrus ciliaris), bush rye grass (Enteropogon macrostachyus) and Maasai lovegrass (Eragrostis superba) have produced promising rehabilitation outcomes. Previous studies in African drylands have demonstrated the potential of such indigenous forage grasses in improving both vegetation cover (plant frequency and densities, basal cover) and soil hydrological properties (increased infiltration capacity, reduced runoff and sediment production) as indicators of rehabilitation success. Despite their comparative and widespread success, natural and anthropogenic challenges persist. This makes reseeding programmes a risky and often expensive venture, especially for the resource-poor pastoral communities in African drylands. Despite the risks, grass reseeding using indigenous pastures remains a viable sustainable land management option to combat degradation in African drylands. However, to ensure its continued success in the long term, multifaceted approaches and strategies that will integrate land and water management and seed systems suitable for African drylands need to be developed, strengthened and promoted.Peer reviewe

Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert‐based assessment

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio‐economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid‐21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio‐economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best‐case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best‐case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post‐2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity