Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages. METHODS: We used three separate modelling strategies for lower respiratory infections in GBD 2016: a Bayesian hierarchical ensemble modelling platform (Cause of Death Ensemble model), which uses vital registration, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance system data to predict mortality due to lower respiratory infections; a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR), which uses scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data to predict incidence, prevalence, and mortality; and modelling of counterfactual estimates of the population attributable fraction of lower respiratory infection episodes due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus. We calculated each modelled estimate for each age, sex, year, and location. We modelled the exposure level in a population for a given risk factor using DisMod-MR and a spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression, and assessed the effectiveness of targeted interventions for each risk factor in children younger than 5 years. We also did a decomposition analysis of the change in LRI deaths from 2000-16 using the risk factors associated with LRI in GBD 2016. FINDINGS: In 2016, lower respiratory infections caused 652 572 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 586 475-720 612) in children younger than 5 years (under-5s), 1 080 958 deaths (943 749-1 170 638) in adults older than 70 years, and 2 377 697 deaths (2 145 584-2 512 809) in people of all ages, worldwide. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the leading cause of lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality globally, contributing to more deaths than all other aetiologies combined in 2016 (1 189 937 deaths, 95% UI 690 445-1 770 660). Childhood wasting remains the leading risk factor for lower respiratory infection mortality among children younger than 5 years, responsible for 61·4% of lower respiratory infection deaths in 2016 (95% UI 45·7-69·6). Interventions to improve wasting, household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and expanded antibiotic use could avert one under-5 death due to lower respiratory infection for every 4000 children treated in the countries with the highest lower respiratory infection burden. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show substantial progress in the reduction of lower respiratory infection burden, but this progress has not been equal across locations, has been driven by decreases in several primary risk factors, and might require more effort among elderly adults. By highlighting regions and populations with the highest burden, and the risk factors that could have the greatest effect, funders, policy makers, and programme implementers can more effectively reduce lower respiratory infections among the world's most susceptible populations. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39.4-40.7) to 50.3% (50.0-50.5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46.3% (95% UI 46.1-46.5) in 2017, compared with 28.7% (28.5-29.0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88.6% (95% UI 87.2-89.7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76.1% (95% UI 71.6-80.7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53.9% (50.6-59.6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0–8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421–723) to 853 million (642–1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6–9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4–7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782–3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279–1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082–3583] vs 2336 [2154–2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943–3630] vs 5643 [5057–6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury

Factors associated with secondhand tobacco smoke in the home: an exploratory cross-sectional study among women in Aleta Wondo, Ethiopia

Abstract Background In Ethiopia, female smoking rates are currently low (1 %). However, because of male smoking rates (overall 7.7 % and up to 27 % depending on region), women and children’s risk of second hand smoke (SHS) exposure is a pressing concern. In order to develop effective public health interventions that prevent the uptake and exposure to smoking, thereby averting the projected increase in tobacco-induced disease, an understanding of Ethiopian women’s practices regarding tobacco is needed. The purpose of this study was to explore Ethiopian women’s tobacco use and prevalence of SHS exposure, and to identify covariates associated with SHS exposure. Methods We conducted an exploratory cross-sectional study in Southern Ethiopia between August and October 2014, and systematically sampled households in Aleta Wondo town and surrounding districts. Trained interviewers verbally administered surveys to women 18–55 years of age. Descriptive statistics and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed. Results None of the 353 participants reported current tobacco use and less than 1 % reported ever use, however, 11 % reported ever use of the stimulant leaf khat. Twenty-seven women (7.6 %) reported living with a tobacco user, however, twice that number (14.4 %) overall, and 22 % of urban participants reported that smoking occurred daily in their home. When controlling for other factors, living with a tobacco user (OR = 9.91, 95 % CI [3.32, 29.59]), allowing smoking in the home (OR = 5.67, 95 % CI [2.51, 12.79]), place of residence (OR = 2.74, 95 % CI [1.11, 6.74)]), and exposure to point-of-sale advertising within the last 30 days (OR = 2.87, 95 % CI [1.26, 6.54]) contributed significantly to a model predicting the likelihood of reporting daily occurrence of smoking/SHS in the home. Conclusions While few women reported having ever used tobacco, one in seven women in this study reported that smoking/SHS occurred daily in their homes. Therefore SHS exposure is a potential health concern for women and children in this rural community. Findings from this study provide baseline data for monitoring tobacco control policies in Ethiopia, particularly in relation to the promotion of smoke-free homes, and could be used to inform prevention program development

Quality of Chronic Disease (Diabetes & Hypertension) Care in Health Care Facilities in High Disease Burden Areas in Sidama Region: Cross-Sectional Study

Bedilu Deribe Derese,1 Fikru Tadesse,1 Gezahegn Bekele Dadi,1 Mohammed Ayalew,1 Yacob Abraham Borie,1 Tinbete Samuel Alemayehu,1 Amdehiwot Aynalem,1 Ephrem Geja Gechere,1 Martha Girma Gebrekidan,1 Alemu Tamiso Debiso,2 Akalewold Alemayehu,2 Meskerem Jisso Ebido,2 Kindalem Worku Mihrete,3 Rekiku Fikre,4 Amanuel Ejeso,5 Wondwossen Abera6 1School of Nursing; Hawassa University College of Medicine and Health Science, Hawassa, Sidama Regional State, Ethiopia; 2School of Public Health; Hawassa University College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Hawassa, Sidama Regional State, Ethiopia; 3School of Medicine; Hawassa University College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Hawassa, Sidama Regional State, Ethiopia; 4Department of Midwifery; Hawassa University College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Hawassa, Sidama Regional State, Ethiopia; 5Department of Environmental; Hawassa University College of Medicine and Health Sciences Health, Hawassa, Sidama Regional State, Ethiopia; 6School of Medical Laboratory; Hawassa University College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Hawassa, Sidama Regional State, EthiopiaCorrespondence: Bedilu Deribe Derese, Email [email protected]; [email protected]: Diabetes and hypertension are major synergistic risk factors for microvasculopathy, microangiopathy, and neuropathy problems among patients with chronic disorder. Control of hypertension and diabetes have significant value in delaying these complications. The key for delaying complications in diabetes and hypertension is the quality of care.Objective: This study explored the quality of diabetes-hypertension care in health care facilities with high disease burden in Sidama region.Methodology: An institution-based cross-sectional study was carried out. Patients with diabetes and hypertension were included in the study. In this study, we included 844 patients were included in the study. For data collection, the application software Kobo Collect was utilized. For data analysis, SPSS version 25 was used. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with quality of care. To measure quality, we employed patient outcome indicators focusing on long-term complications of the eye, heart, fasting blood pressure, and neuropathic complications. Ethical approval clearance was obtained from Hawassa University, College of Medicine and Health Sciences ethical review board.Results: The mean age of patients was 47.99 ± 15.26 years, with a range of 18– 90 years, while men make up 62% of the overall number of respondents. In terms of marital status, 700 (82.9%) were married. Concerning place of residence; 433 (51.3%) were from rural area. The primary diagnosis is diabetes for 419 (49.6%) patients, and nearly 23% of patients have both diabetes and hypertension. In terms of blood pressure, the average systolic pressure was 129.6 mmHg and the average diastolic pressure was 82.6 mmHg. Among the study participants, 391 (46.33%) patients received poor quality of chronic disease care. Patients living alone, patients who have professional work, fasting blood glucose in normal range, patients with higher education, and patients with serum creatinine receive relatively good chronic illness care.Keywords: high blood glucose, high blood pressure, diabetes-hypertension, Sidama, Ethiopi

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoea in 195 countries: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoea in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies in 1990–2016 and assesses how the burden of diarrhoea has changed in people of all ages Methods We modelled diarrhoea mortality with a Bayesian hierarchical modelling platform that evaluates a wide range of covariates and model types on the basis of vital registration and verbal autopsy data. We modelled diarrhoea incidence with a compartmental meta-regression tool that enforces an association between incidence and prevalence, and relies on scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data. Diarrhoea deaths and episodes were attributed to 13 pathogens by use of a counterfactual population attributable fraction approach. Diarrhoea risk factors are also based on counterfactual estimates of risk exposure and the association between the risk and diarrhoea. Each modelled estimate accounted for uncertainty. Findings In 2016, diarrhoea was the eighth leading cause of death among all ages (1 655 944 deaths, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1 244 073–2 366 552) and the fifth leading cause of death among children younger than 5 years (446 000 deaths, 390 894–504 613). Rotavirus was the leading aetiology for diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years (128 515 deaths, 105 138–155 133) and among all ages (228 047 deaths, 183 526–292 737). Childhood wasting (low weight-for-height score), unsafe water, and unsafe sanitation were the leading risk factors for diarrhoea, responsible for 80·4% (95% UI 68·2–85·0), 72·1% (34·0–91·4), and 56·4% (49·3–62·7) of diarrhoea deaths in children younger than 5 years, respectively. Prevention of wasting in 1762 children (95% UI 1521–2170) could avert one death from diarrhoea. Interpretation Substantial progress has been made globally in reducing the burden of diarrhoeal diseases, driven by decreases in several primary risk factors. However, this reduction has not been equal across locations, and burden among adults older than 70 years requires attention.</p