Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals

The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for 'making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions'. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the near-term mitigation requirements to avoid the overshoot of a temperature goal. It must also include the recently observed fast technological progress in key mitigation options. Here, we use a new and unique scenario ensemble that limit peak warming by construction and that stems from seven up-to-date integrated assessment models. This allows us to study the near-term implications of different limits to peak temperature increase under a consistent and up-to-date set of assumptions. We find that ambitious immediate action allows for limiting median warming outcomes to well below 2 °C in all models. By contrast, current nationally determined contributions for 2030 would add around 0.2 °C of peak warming, leading to an unavoidable transgression of 1.5 °C in all models, and 2 °C in some. In contrast to the incremental changes as foreseen by current plans, ambitious peak warming targets require decisive emission cuts until 2030, with the most substantial contribution to decarbonization coming from the power sector. Therefore, investments into low-carbon power generation need to increase beyond current levels to meet the Paris goals, especially for solar and wind technologies and related system enhancements for electricity transmission, distribution and storage. Estimates on absolute investment levels, up-scaling of other low-carbon power generation technologies and investment shares in less ambitious scenarios vary considerably across models. In scenarios limiting peak warming to below 2 °C, while coal is phased out quickly, oil and gas are still being used significantly until 2030, albeit at lower than current levels. This requires continued investments into existing oil and gas infrastructure, but investments into new fields in such scenarios might not be needed. The results show that credible and effective policy action is essential for ensuring efficient allocation of investments aligned with medium-term climate targets

Taking some heat off the NDCs? The limited potential of additional short-lived climate forcers’ mitigation

Several studies have shown that the greenhouse gas reduction resulting from the current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) will not be enough to meet the overall targets of the Paris Climate Agreement. It has been suggested that more ambition mitigations of short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) emissions could potentially be a way to reduce the risk of overshooting the 1.5 or 2 °C target in a cost-effective way. In this study, we employ eight state-of-the-art integrated assessment models (IAMs) to examine the global temperature effects of ambitious reductions of methane, black and organic carbon, and hydrofluorocarbon emissions. The SLCFs measures considered are found to add significantly to the effect of the NDCs on short-term global mean temperature (GMT) (in the year 2040: − 0.03 to − 0.15 °C) and on reducing the short-term rate-of-change (by − 2 to 15%), but only a small effect on reducing the maximum temperature change before 2100. This, because later in the century under assumed ambitious climate policy, SLCF mitigation is maximized, either directly or indirectly due to changes in the energy system. All three SLCF groups can contribute to achieving GMT changes

The role of methane in future climate strategies: mitigation potentials and climate impacts

This study examines model-specific assumptions and projections of methane (CH4) emissions in deep mitigation scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs). For this, scenarios of nine models are compared in terms of sectoral and regional CH4 emission reduction strategies, as well as resulting climate impacts. The models’ projected reduction potentials are compared to sector and technology-specific reduction potentials found in literature. Significant cost-effective and non-climate policy related reductions are projected in the reference case (10–36% compared to a “frozen emission factor” scenario in 2100). Still, compared to 2010, CH4 emissions are expected to rise steadily by 9–72% (up to 412 to 654 Mt CH4/year). Ambitious CO2 reduction measures could by themselves lead to a reduction of CH4 emissions due to a reduction of fossil fuels (22–48% compared to the reference case in 2100). However, direct CH4 mitigation is crucial and more effective in bringing down CH4 (50–74% compared to the reference case). Given the limited reduction potential, agriculture CH4 emissions are projected to constitute an increasingly larger share of total anthropogenic CH4 emissions in mitigation scenarios. Enteric fermentation in ruminants is in that respect by far the largest mitigation bottleneck later in the century with a projected 40–78% of total remaining CH4 emissions in 2100 in a strong (2 °C) climate policy case

Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals

The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for 'making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions'. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the near-term mitigation requirements to avoid the overshoot of a temperature goal. It must also include the recently observed fast technological progress in key mitigation options. Here, we use a new and unique scenario ensemble that limit peak warming by construction and that stems from seven up-to-date integrated assessment models. This allows us to study the near-term implications of different limits to peak temperature increase under a consistent and up-to-date set of assumptions. We find that ambitious immediate action allows for limiting median warming outcomes to well below 2 °C in all models. By contrast, current nationally determined contributions for 2030 would add around 0.2 °C of peak warming, leading to an unavoidable transgression of 1.5 °C in all models, and 2 °C in some. In contrast to the incremental changes as foreseen by current plans, ambitious peak warming targets require decisive emission cuts until 2030, with the most substantial contribution to decarbonization coming from the power sector. Therefore, investments into low-carbon power generation need to increase beyond current levels to meet the Paris goals, especially for solar and wind technologies and related system enhancements for electricity transmission, distribution and storage. Estimates on absolute investment levels, up-scaling of other low-carbon power generation technologies and investment shares in less ambitious scenarios vary considerably across models. In scenarios limiting peak warming to below 2 °C, while coal is phased out quickly, oil and gas are still being used significantly until 2030, albeit at lower than current levels. This requires continued investments into existing oil and gas infrastructure, but investments into new fields in such scenarios might not be needed. The results show that credible and effective policy action is essential for ensuring efficient allocation of investments aligned with medium-term climate targets

Photography-based taxonomy is inadequate, unnecessary, and potentially harmful for biological sciences

The question whether taxonomic descriptions naming new animal species without type specimen(s) deposited in collections should be accepted for publication by scientific journals and allowed by the Code has already been discussed in Zootaxa (Dubois & Nemésio 2007; Donegan 2008, 2009; Nemésio 2009a–b; Dubois 2009; Gentile & Snell 2009; Minelli 2009; Cianferoni & Bartolozzi 2016; Amorim et al. 2016). This question was again raised in a letter supported by 35 signatories published in the journal Nature (Pape et al. 2016) on 15 September 2016. On 25 September 2016, the following rebuttal (strictly limited to 300 words as per the editorial rules of Nature) was submitted to Nature, which on 18 October 2016 refused to publish it. As we think this problem is a very important one for zoological taxonomy, this text is published here exactly as submitted to Nature, followed by the list of the 493 taxonomists and collection-based researchers who signed it in the short time span from 20 September to 6 October 2016

Mobilisation de protéines de la voie de jonction d'extrémités non homologues en réponse aux cassures double-brin de l'ADN dans les cellules de mammifère

TOULOUSE3-BU Sciences (315552104) / SudocSudocFranceF

Slip-trace-induced vicinal step destabilization

International audienc

Multiscale assemblage of an ectomycorrhizal fungal community: the influence of host functional traits and soil properties in a 10-ha miombo forest

Ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF) are highly diversified and dominant in a number of forest ecosystems. Nevertheless, theirscales of spatial distribution and the underlying ecological processes remain poorly understood. Although most EMF areconsidered to be generalists regarding host identity, a preference toward functional strategies of host trees has never beentested. Here, the EMF community was characterised by DNA sequencing in a 10-ha tropical dry season forest—referred to asmiombo—an understudied ecosystem from a mycorrhizal perspective. We used 36 soil parameters and 21 host functionaltraits (FTs) as candidate explanatory variables in spatial constrained ordinations for explaining the EMF communityassemblage. Results highlighted that the community variability was explained by host FTs related to the ‘leaf economicsspectrum’ (adjusted R2 = 11%; SLA, leaf area, foliar Mg content), and by soil parameters (adjusted R2 = 17%), notably totalforms of micronutrients or correlated available elements (Al, N, K, P). Both FTs and soil generated patterns in thecommunity at scales ranging from 75 to 375 m. Our results indicate that soil is more important than previously thought forEMF in miombo woodlands, and show that FTs of host species can be better predictors of symbiont distribution thantaxonomical identity.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Continuous hemoglobin and plethysmography variability index monitoring can modify blood transfusion practice and is associated with lower mortality

International audienceTo determine the effect of implementing an algorithm of fluid and blood administration based on continuous monitoring of hemoglobin (SpHb) and PVI (plethysmography variability index) on mortality and transfusion on a whole hospital scale. This single-center quality program compared transfusion at 48 h and mortality at 30 days and 90 days after surgery between two 11-month periods in 2013 and 2014 during which all the operating and recovery rooms and intensive care units were equipped with SpHb/PVI monitors. The entire team was trained to use monitors and the algorithm. Team members were free to decide whether or not to use devices. Each device was connected to an electronic wireless acquired database to anonymously acquire parameters on-line and identify patients who received the monitoring. All data were available from electronic files. Patients were divided in three groups; 2013 (G1, n = 9285), 2014 without (G2, n = 5856) and with (G3, n = 3575) goal-directed therapy. The influence of age, ASA class, severity and urgency of surgery and use of algorithm on mortality and blood use were analyzed with cox-proportional hazard models. Because in 2015, SpHb/PVI monitors were no longer available, we assessed post-study mortality observed in 2015 to measure the impact of team training to adjust vascular filling on a patient to patient basis. During non-cardiac surgery, blood was more often transfused during surgery in G3 patients as compared to G2 (66.6% vs. 50.7%, p < 0.001) but with fewer blood units per patient. After adjustment, survival analysis showed a lower risk of transfusion at 48 h in G3 [OR 0.79 (0.68-0.93), p = 0.004] but not in G2 [OR 0.90 (0.78-1.04) p = 0.17] as compared to G1. When adjusting to the severity of surgery as covariable, there was 0.5 and 0.7% differences of mortality at day 30 and 90 whether patients had goal directed therapy (GDT). After high risk surgery, the mortality at day 30 is reduced by 4% when using GDT, and 1% after intermediate risk surgery. There was no difference for low risk surgery. G3 Patients had a lower risk of death at 30 days post-surgery [OR 0.67 (0.49-0.92) p = 0.01] but not G2 patients [OR 1.01, (0.78-1.29), p = 0.96]. In 2015, mortality at 30 days and 90 days increased again to similar levels as those of 2013, respectively 2.18 and 3.09%. Monitoring SpHb and PVI integrated in a vascular filling algorithm is associated with earlier transfusion and reduced 30 and 90-day mortality on a whole hospital scale