Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals

International audienceTemporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection

Insights into the genetic architecture of morphological traits in two passerine bird species

Knowledge about the underlying genetic architecture of phenotypic traits is needed to understand and predict evolutionary dynamics. The number of causal loci, magnitude of the effects and location in the genome are, however, still largely unknown. Here, we use genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data from two large-scale data sets on house sparrows and collared flycatchers to examine the genetic architecture of different morphological traits (tarsus length, wing length, body mass, bill depth, bill length, total and visible badge size and white wing patches). Genomic heritabilities were estimated using relatedness calculated from SNPs. The proportion of variance captured by the SNPs (SNP-based heritability) was lower in house sparrows compared with collared flycatchers, as expected given marker density (6348 SNPs in house sparrows versus 38 689 SNPs in collared flycatchers). Indeed, after downsampling to similar SNP density and sample size, this estimate was no longer markedly different between species. Chromosome-partitioning analyses demonstrated that the proportion of variance explained by each chromosome was significantly positively related to the chromosome size for some traits and, generally, that larger chromosomes tended to explain proportionally more variation than smaller chromosomes. Finally, we found two genome-wide significant associations with very small-effect sizes. One SNP on chromosome 20 was associated with bill length in house sparrows and explained 1.2% of phenotypic variation (VP), and one SNP on chromosome 4 was associated with tarsus length in collared flycatchers (3% of VP). Although we cannot exclude the possibility of undetected large-effect loci, our results indicate a polygenic basis for morphological traits