Multiple autoregressive models with random coefficients

AbstractThis paper derives conditions for the stationarity of a class of multiple autoregressive models with random coefficients. The models considered include as special cases those previously discussed by Andel (Ann. Math. Statist.42 (1971), 755–759; Math. Operationsforsch. Statist.7 (1976), 735–741)

Tracing the evolution of nearby early-type galaxies in low density environments. The Ultraviolet view from GALEX

We detected recent star formation in nearby early-type galaxies located in low density environments, with GALEX Ultraviolet (UV) imaging. Signatures of star formation may be present in the nucleus and in outer rings/arm like structures. Our study suggests that such star formation may be induced by different triggering mechanisms, such as the inner secular evolution driven by bars, and minor accretion phenomena. We investigate the nature of the (FUV-NUV) color vs. Mg2 correlation, and suggest that it relates to "downsizing" in galaxy formation.Comment: Conference "UV Universe 2010" S. Petersburg 31 May - 3 June, 2010 Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Science . The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co

Effect of stress-triaxiality on void growth in dynamic fracture of metals: a molecular dynamics study

The effect of stress-triaxiality on growth of a void in a three dimensional single-crystal face-centered-cubic (FCC) lattice has been studied. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations using an embedded-atom (EAM) potential for copper have been performed at room temperature and using strain controlling with high strain rates ranging from 10^7/sec to 10^10/sec. Strain-rates of these magnitudes can be studied experimentally, e.g. using shock waves induced by laser ablation. Void growth has been simulated in three different conditions, namely uniaxial, biaxial, and triaxial expansion. The response of the system in the three cases have been compared in terms of the void growth rate, the detailed void shape evolution, and the stress-strain behavior including the development of plastic strain. Also macroscopic observables as plastic work and porosity have been computed from the atomistic level. The stress thresholds for void growth are found to be comparable with spall strength values determined by dynamic fracture experiments. The conventional macroscopic assumption that the mean plastic strain results from the growth of the void is validated. The evolution of the system in the uniaxial case is found to exhibit four different regimes: elastic expansion; plastic yielding, when the mean stress is nearly constant, but the stress-triaxiality increases rapidly together with exponential growth of the void; saturation of the stress-triaxiality; and finally the failure.Comment: 35 figures, which are small (and blurry) due to the space limitations; submitted (with original figures) to Physical Review B. Final versio

Exploring the sensitivity of coastal inundation modelling to DEM vertical error

© 2018 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. As sea level is projected to rise throughout the twenty-first century due to climate change, there is a need to ensure that sea level rise (SLR) models accurately and defensibly represent future flood inundation levels to allow for effective coastal zone management. Digital elevation models (DEMs) are integral to SLR modelling, but are subject to error, including in their vertical resolution. Error in DEMs leads to uncertainty in the output of SLR inundation models, which if not considered, may result in poor coastal management decisions. However, DEM error is not usually described in detail by DEM suppliers; commonly only the RMSE is reported. This research explores the impact of stated vertical error in delineating zones of inundation in two locations along the Devon, United Kingdom, coastline (Exe and Otter Estuaries). We explore the consequences of needing to make assumptions about the distribution of error in the absence of detailed error data using a 1 m, publically available composite DEM with a maximum RMSE of 0.15 m, typical of recent LiDAR-derived DEMs. We compare uncertainty using two methods (i) the NOAA inundation uncertainty mapping method which assumes a normal distribution of error and (ii) a hydrologically correct bathtub method where the DEM is uniformly perturbed between the upper and lower bounds of a 95% linear error in 500 Monte Carlo Simulations (HBM+MCS). The NOAA method produced a broader zone of uncertainty (an increase of 134.9% on the HBM+MCS method), which is particularly evident in the flatter topography of the upper estuaries. The HBM+MCS method generates a narrower band of uncertainty for these flatter areas, but very similar extents where shorelines are steeper. The differences in inundation extents produced by the methods relate to a number of underpinning assumptions, and particularly, how the stated RMSE is interpreted and used to represent error in a practical sense. Unlike the NOAA method, the HBM+MCS model is computationally intensive, depending on the areas under consideration and the number of iterations. We therefore used the HBM+ MCS method to derive a regression relationship between elevation and inundation probability for the Exe Estuary. We then apply this to the adjacent Otter Estuary and show that it can defensibly reproduce zones of inundation uncertainty, avoiding the computationally intensive step of the HBM+MCS. The equation-derived zone of uncertainty was 112.1% larger than the HBM+MCS method, compared to the NOAA method which produced an uncertain area 423.9% larger. Each approach has advantages and disadvantages and requires value judgements to be made. Their use underscores the need for transparency in assumptions and communications of outputs. We urge DEM publishers to move beyond provision of a generalised RMSE and provide more detailed estimates of spatial error and complete metadata, including locations of ground control points and associated land cover

CPT, T, and Lorentz Violation in Neutral-Meson Oscillations

Tests of CPT and Lorentz symmetry using neutral-meson oscillations are studied within a formalism that allows for indirect CPT and T violation of arbitrary size and is independent of phase conventions. The analysis is particularly appropriate for studies of CPT and T violation in oscillations of the heavy neutral mesons D, B_d, and B_s. The general Lorentz- and CPT-breaking standard-model extension is used to derive an expression for the parameter for CPT violation. It varies in a prescribed way with the magnitude and orientation of the meson momentum and consequently also with sidereal time. Decay probabilities are presented for both uncorrelated and correlated mesons, and some implications for experiments are discussed.Comment: 11 pages, references added, accepted in Physical Review

AD51B in Familial Breast Cancer

Common variation on 14q24.1, close to RAD51B, has been associated with breast cancer: rs999737 and rs2588809 with the risk of female breast cancer and rs1314913 with the risk of male breast cancer. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of RAD51B variants in breast cancer predisposition, particularly in the context of familial breast cancer in Finland. We sequenced the coding region of RAD51B in 168 Finnish breast cancer patients from the Helsinki region for identification of possible recurrent founder mutations. In addition, we studied the known rs999737, rs2588809, and rs1314913 SNPs and RAD51B haplotypes in 44,791 breast cancer cases and 43,583 controls from 40 studies participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC) that were genotyped on a custom chip (iCOGS). We identified one putatively pathogenic missense mutation c.541C>T among the Finnish cancer patients and subsequently genotyped the mutation in additional breast cancer cases (n = 5259) and population controls (n = 3586) from Finland and Belarus. No significant association with breast cancer risk was seen in the meta-analysis of the Finnish datasets or in the large BCAC dataset. The association with previously identified risk variants rs999737, rs2588809, and rs1314913 was replicated among all breast cancer cases and also among familial cases in the BCAC dataset. The most significant association was observed for the haplotype carrying the risk-alleles of all the three SNPs both among all cases (odds ratio (OR): 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11–1.19, P = 8.88 x 10−16) and among familial cases (OR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.16–1.32, P = 6.19 x 10−11), compared to the haplotype with the respective protective alleles. Our results suggest that loss-of-function mutations in RAD51B are rare, but common variation at the RAD51B region is significantly associated with familial breast cancer risk

Constraints on the structure and seasonal variations of Triton's atmosphere from the 5 October 2017 stellar occultation and previous observations

Context. A stellar occultation by Neptune's main satellite, Triton, was observed on 5 October 2017 from Europe, North Africa, and the USA. We derived 90 light curves from this event, 42 of which yielded a central flash detection. Aims. We aimed at constraining Triton's atmospheric structure and the seasonal variations of its atmospheric pressure since the Voyager 2 epoch (1989). We also derived the shape of the lower atmosphere from central flash analysis. Methods. We used Abel inversions and direct ray-tracing code to provide the density, pressure, and temperature profiles in the altitude range similar to 8 km to similar to 190 km, corresponding to pressure levels from 9 mu bar down to a few nanobars. Results. (i) A pressure of 1.18 +/- 0.03 mu bar is found at a reference radius of 1400 km (47 km altitude). (ii) A new analysis of the Voyager 2 radio science occultation shows that this is consistent with an extrapolation of pressure down to the surface pressure obtained in 1989. (iii) A survey of occultations obtained between 1989 and 2017 suggests that an enhancement in surface pressure as reported during the 1990s might be real, but debatable, due to very few high S/N light curves and data accessible for reanalysis. The volatile transport model analysed supports a moderate increase in surface pressure, with a maximum value around 2005-2015 no higher than 23 mu bar. The pressures observed in 1995-1997 and 2017 appear mutually inconsistent with the volatile transport model presented here. (iv) The central flash structure does not show evidence of an atmospheric distortion. We find an upper limit of 0.0011 for the apparent oblateness of the atmosphere near the 8 km altitude.J.M.O. acknowledges financial support from the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) and the European Social Fund (ESF) through the PhD grant SFRH/BD/131700/2017. The work leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Community's H2020 2014-2021 ERC grant Agreement nffi 669416 "Lucky Star". We thank S. Para who supported some travels to observe the 5 October 2017 occultation. T.B. was supported for this research by an appointment to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Post-Doctoral Program at the Ames Research Center administered by Universities Space Research Association (USRA) through a contract with NASA. We acknowledge useful exchanges with Mark Gurwell on the ALMA CO observations. This work has made use of data from the European Space Agency (ESA) mission Gaia (https://www.cosmos.esa.int/gaia), processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC, https://www.cosmos.esa.int/web/gaia/dpac/consortium).Funding for the DPAC has been provided by national institutions, in particular the institutions participating in the Gaia Multilateral Agreement. J.L.O., P.S.-S., N.M. and R.D. acknowledge financial support from the State Agency for Research of the Spanish MCIU through the "Center of Excellence Severo Ochoa" award to the Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia (SEV-2017-0709), they also acknowledge the financial support by the Spanish grant AYA-2017-84637-R and the Proyecto de Excelencia de la Junta de Andalucia J.A. 2012-FQM1776. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, under Grant Agreement no. 687378, as part of the project "Small Bodies Near and Far" (SBNAF). P.S.-S. acknowledges financial support by the Spanish grant AYA-RTI2018-098657-J-I00 "LEO-SBNAF". The work was partially based on observations made at the Laboratorio Nacional de Astrofisica (LNA), Itajuba-MG, Brazil. The following authors acknowledge the respective CNPq grants: F.B.-R. 309578/2017-5; R.V.-M. 304544/2017-5, 401903/2016-8; J.I.B.C. 308150/2016-3 and 305917/2019-6; M.A. 427700/20183, 310683/2017-3, 473002/2013-2. This study was financed in part by the Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior -Brasil (CAPES) -Finance Code 001 and the National Institute of Science and Technology of the e-Universe project (INCT do e-Universo, CNPq grant 465376/2014-2). G.B.R. acknowledges CAPES-FAPERJ/PAPDRJ grant E26/203.173/2016 and CAPES-PRINT/UNESP grant 88887.571156/2020-00, M.A. FAPERJ grant E26/111.488/2013 and A.R.G.Jr. FAPESP grant 2018/11239-8. B.E.M. thanks CNPq 150612/2020-6 and CAPES/Cofecub-394/2016-05 grants. Part of the photometric data used in this study were collected in the frame of the photometric observations with the robotic and remotely controlled telescope at the University of Athens Observatory (UOAO; Gazeas 2016). The 2.3 m Aristarchos telescope is operated on Helmos Observatory by the Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing of the National Observatory of Athens. Observations with the 2.3 m Aristarchos telescope were carried out under OPTICON programme. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 730890. This material reflects only the authors views and the Commission is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. The 1. 2m Kryoneri telescope is operated by the Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing of the National Observatory of Athens. The Astronomical Observatory of the Autonomous Region of the Aosta Valley (OAVdA) is managed by the Fondazione Clement Fillietroz-ONLUS, which is supported by the Regional Government of the Aosta Valley, the Town Municipality of Nus and the "Unite des Communes valdotaines Mont-Emilius". The 0.81 m Main Telescope at the OAVdA was upgraded thanks to a Shoemaker NEO Grant 2013 from The Planetary Society. D.C. and J.M.C. acknowledge funds from a 2017 'Research and Education' grant from Fondazione CRT-Cassa di Risparmio di Torino. P.M. acknowledges support from the Portuguese Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia ref. PTDC/FISAST/29942/2017 through national funds and by FEDER through COMPETE 2020 (ref. POCI010145 FEDER007672). F.J. acknowledges Jean Luc Plouvier for his help. S.J.F. and C.A. would like to thank the UCL student support observers: Helen Dai, Elise Darragh-Ford, Ross Dobson, Max Hipperson, Edward Kerr-Dineen, Isaac Langley, Emese Meder, Roman Gerasimov, Javier Sanjuan, and Manasvee Saraf. We are grateful to the CAHA, OSN and La Hita Observatory staffs. This research is partially based on observations collected at Centro Astronomico HispanoAleman (CAHA) at Calar Alto, operated jointly by Junta de Andalucia and Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (IAA-CSIC). This research was also partially based on observation carried out at the Observatorio de Sierra Nevada (OSN) operated by Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia (CSIC). This article is also based on observations made with the Liverpool Telescope operated on the island of La Palma by Liverpool John Moores University in the Spanish Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos of the Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias with financial support from the UK Science and Technology Facilities Council. Partially based on observations made with the Tx40 and Excalibur telescopes at the Observatorio Astrofisico de Javalambre in Teruel, a Spanish Infraestructura Cientifico-Tecnica Singular (ICTS) owned, managed and operated by the Centro de Estudios de Fisica del Cosmos de Aragon (CEFCA). Tx40 and Excalibur are funded with the Fondos de Inversiones de Teruel (FITE). A.R.R. would like to thank Gustavo Roman for the mechanical adaptation of the camera to the telescope to allow for the observation to be recorded. R.H., J.F.R., S.P.H. and A.S.L. have been supported by the Spanish projects AYA2015-65041P and PID2019-109467GB-100 (MINECO/FEDER, UE) and Grupos Gobierno Vasco IT1366-19. Our great thanks to Omar Hila and their collaborators in Atlas Golf Marrakech Observatory for providing access to the T60cm telescope. TRAPPIST is a project funded by the Belgian Fonds (National) de la Recherche Scientifique (F.R.S.-FNRS) under grant PDR T.0120.21. TRAPPIST-North is a project funded by the University of Liege, and performed in collaboration with Cadi Ayyad University of Marrakesh. E.J. is a FNRS Senior Research Associate